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100NL - Decent draw, but very unsure how to proceed

  
 
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RML604
Old 08-26-2010, 02:20 AM     Post subject: 100NL - Decent draw, but very unsure how to proceed #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 22/17 over ~370 hands, 3bets 6%, and has an aggression factor of 4 on the flop. Haven't seen him do anything worth noting, at least not that I've noticed.

My hand is obviously not great, but I felt like I could turn a fair amount of equity, either with a diamond, K, J, or 8.

Is my thinking that a call is ok because there are a decent number of good turn cards for me correct?

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Preflop: Hero is MP with 9, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $3, Button calls $3, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($10) 4, 5, 10 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, Button raises to $17, 1 fold, Hero ?
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pocketfours
Old 08-26-2010, 05:23 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Muck it.
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Mr. Diamond
Old 08-26-2010, 09:25 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 you still have Qhigh + you are OOP + you can be dominated by better FD

- and I would probably fold it pre
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Raoni_Poker
Old 08-26-2010, 09:42 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I would not open with this hand and I think as played it is a fold (despite villain being aggressive).

I wonder what you guys think about check-calling here. We might extract value when the flush hits and there are some cards that might be perfect for a check-raise-semi-bluff on the turn. Besides, dont you think villain could check behind turn for value with the bottom of his range that hit the flop (like PPs and one pair hands)?

Is it too bad?
 
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Mr. Diamond
Old 08-26-2010, 12:18 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Raoni_Poker View Post
I would not open with this hand and I think as played it is a fold (despite villain being aggressive).

I wonder what you guys think about check-calling here. We might extract value when the flush hits and there are some cards that might be perfect for a check-raise-semi-bluff on the turn. Besides, dont you think villain could check behind turn for value with the bottom of his range that hit the flop (like PPs and one pair hands)?

Is it too bad?
I like cbetting here, because we have good equity vs their ranges (and fold equity vs something like A8cc,etc.) and we can barrel many turn cards, to fold A5, 77,etc. and if we catch Q, we can continue betting (with our sizing!!!) and get value from TT and draws

+ I think we should almost always bet hand as strong as FD + overcard
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lancelott_
Old 08-26-2010, 11:30 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 agree with a fold, for the most part, as a default if you don`t know much about player.

if, however he messes around cbets IP too much, i thinnk calling and playing the turn is fine - he probably follows up on any of our outs (diamonds,Q), gives up on blanks a decent amount (and than we can lead the river unimproved if turn goes ch-ch), and ch-shove A/K/J some % time, assuming he will bet-fold enough + we will pick up extra equity for more profitable semibluff, but obv this depends on his barreling frequencies)
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kmind
Old 08-27-2010, 12:26 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 I like the way it's played as long as we fold now. Why wouldn't you guys open this or cbet?
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pocketfours
Old 08-27-2010, 07:50 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 I open it and cbet it.
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Mr. Diamond
Old 08-27-2010, 01:04 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 At my stakes (50NL) I would fold it pre, because I can be OOP vs 2 players and will be dominated by better 9s or Qs. I would open it only if CO and BTN are nits and there is bad player in the blinds (I'm playing like 15-16% hands from MP - just trying to play solid). I'm opening this hand from CO.

- definitely I'm cbetting in this situation



edit: sorry I misread this hand. I thought we are MP, but we are CO - easy open
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pocketfours
Old 08-27-2010, 03:07 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 oooooops mr diamond
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jyms
Old 08-27-2010, 03:25 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 Yea, i like how it's played as well 5 handed, I'm folding too now, and I can't fold for shit.
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Micro2Macro
Old 08-28-2010, 07:27 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 lol @ folding this pre unless we have someone who is actually going to exploit position behind us.
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Mr. Diamond
Old 08-28-2010, 08:39 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
oooooops mr diamond
LOL




- it was because of weird converter. Everytime we should be interested about position (and only important position is BTN) and if converter says we are MP, it means they are 2 players behind. So if the hand would be 4way, converter should say SB, BB, CO, BTN - on one side or on the other side I'm just blind moron, who didn't see, that hand is 5way............and pls don't choose, because against converter I'm probably drawing dead
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bspahn
Old 08-29-2010, 07:06 PM #14 (permalink)  
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i think i generally cbet more than 60% on a fairly drawy flop like this... ie the same sizing i would use if i had say AT, JJ type hands... if you're going to bet/fold at least then its less likely that you'll get bluff raised in this spot.

on the flop once you do get raised you have 3 options, i tend to like just quickly thinking about all 3 when i'm in a spot like this and trying to pick the best option.

in this spot BECAUSE he basically doesn't seem to care what SB has his hand looks pretty strong so I think fold >> re-raise >> call

i think you have more flush draws in your range but if he DOES have a FD it's almost always going to be Kx or Ax here, or sets.
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Mr. Diamond
Old 08-30-2010, 06:05 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by bspahn View Post
i think you have more flush draws in your range but if he DOES have a FD it's almost always going to be Kx or Ax here, or sets.
or some % he has Tdxd
- and if x is lower than Q, he has a pair + blockers to flush (and is about 60:40 favorite)
- and if x is bigger than Q, we are almost dead (= 3outer to Q)
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Dragon Slayer
Old 08-30-2010, 08:14 PM #16 (permalink)  
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+1 on opening Q9s from CO
+1 on Cbetting-I can see this flop checking through a ton
+1 on folding to raise- If Im in the heat of the moment I might call and then kick myself in the nuts for doing so.
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sauce123
Old 08-30-2010, 11:36 PM #17 (permalink)  
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id open Q9s from UTG at a lot of tables, and from the CO at like 90% of tables
cbetting is pretty obviously most +ev flop play in most situations

WTF AT FODLING TO RAISE!)!*$)#*%

we are getting 12 to 33 on a call and we can continue on 15 cards + we have implied odds
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Ravageur
Old 08-31-2010, 12:42 AM #18 (permalink)  
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yeah...i'm definitely calling here. We can also turn straight draws that are sexy as well.
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RML604
Old 08-31-2010, 12:53 PM #19 (permalink)  
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 That was my thinking as well, there are a ton of cards I will be able to continue with on the turn. And so, I called.

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UTG ($115.85)
Hero (MP) ($101.50)
Button ($100)
SB ($359.20)
BB ($144.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $3, Button calls $3, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($10) 4, 5, 10 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, Button raises to $17, 1 fold, Hero calls $11

Turn: ($44) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $28, Hero ?

It's definitely not a bad card for me, as now I can spike a J for the straight, and my FD might still be good. But I feel like just flatting here is bad, as I'm going to end up putting in ~40% of my stack and then folding on a bunch of blank rivers. But folding seems silly, since one of the reasons I called the flop was because I could turn a card that would give me a SD.

Is shoving terrible?
 
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pocketfours
Old 08-31-2010, 05:43 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sauce123 View Post
WTF AT FODLING TO RAISE!)!*$)#*%
The fact that you can defend here profitably at high stakes with image and meta considerations is pretty irrelevant. Against a 22/17/6% TAG at 100nl your just fucked here and he is going to put you on exactly Q9dd when you flat anyway.

Yeah I guess the odds are pretty good since we only bet small for some stupid reason and the raise wasn't too big either, so sure this is pretty much a whatever spot but I'm pretty f****** sure that OP is going to loose money on this call.
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paratrooper99
Old 08-31-2010, 06:17 PM #21 (permalink)  
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 On 4th street you have 48 big blinds invested in a hand that has 3 outs that will win you the pot and 9 that might. I see villians range here as AdTd,AdXd, 6d7d, 2d3d, 44,55,TT, or air and because of the smaller turn bet I am leaning toward the first 2. Considering he has half his stack in the middle, you have no fold equity with a shove, so a shove here would be total spew.
1. Fold preflop unless you want to making more of these posts.
2. Bet/fold Flop
3. "It's definitely not a bad card for me, as now I can spike a J for the straight" = rationalization for bad call which profitable players love.
This is a huge leak.....
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Mr. Diamond
Old 08-31-2010, 06:32 PM #22 (permalink)  
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 I completely agree with pocketfours

- this is range I think he can has (or something similiar)

Board: 4d 5d Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.421% 27.42% 00.00% 4615 0.00 { Qd9d }
Hand 1: 72.579% 72.58% 00.00% 12215 0.00 { TcTd, TcTs, TdTs, 55-44, AdJd, AdTd, Ad8d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdTd, 8d7d, 7d6d }

- we have exactly 3:1 to call and against my range we have something like 2,6:1
- but I still think this is fold, because I'm not sure, that 100NL reg is good enough in poker to play this hand profitably vs this range OOP, w/o initiative
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vaks
Old 09-06-2010, 06:05 AM #23 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
The fact that you can defend here profitably at high stakes with image and meta considerations is pretty irrelevant. Against a 22/17/6% TAG at 100nl your just fucked here and he is going to put you on exactly Q9dd when you flat anyway.

Yeah I guess the odds are pretty good since we only bet small for some stupid reason and the raise wasn't too big either, so sure this is pretty much a whatever spot but I'm pretty f****** sure that OP is going to loose money on this call.

so you think our perceived range here is only Q9dd?
I'm pretty sure villian will see our range as being better. I think it is important to note what villians range could be I don't think anyone has really done that. He is reraising and betting for half pot on the. To me it looks like villian is possibly setting up a river for a shove So he probably has a hand like JTs+, KQs, a set, 67dd,

I feel like our best play here is probably to shove, as long as we can find stats that say villian is very capable of folding here (such as not a tagfish) That K I believe is a great scare card so villian can put us on a hand like AK, KT+, maybe even a set as well. And even if he does call you still have plenty of cards to come to help you out on the river.

However I don't think you should shove here unless you would also shove here with made hands.

What do you guys think?
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vaks
Old 09-06-2010, 06:12 AM #24 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99 View Post
On 4th street you have 48 big blinds invested in a hand that has 3 outs that will win you the pot and 9 that might. I see villians range here as AdTd,AdXd, 6d7d, 2d3d, 44,55,TT, or air and because of the smaller turn bet I am leaning toward the first 2. Considering he has half his stack in the middle, you have no fold equity with a shove, so a shove here would be total spew.
1. Fold preflop unless you want to making more of these posts.
2. Bet/fold Flop
3. "It's definitely not a bad card for me, as now I can spike a J for the straight" = rationalization for bad call which profitable players love.
This is a huge leak.....
I don't know if I can fully agree with any of these statements..
Q9s is a great hand to open from the CO 5 handed unless the BB is very capable of playing back at us (ie. 3betting, calling IP to raise flops etc with a very wide range in which case you should fold this preflop. His stats show that he might be but there is a good chance he is not)

as said by sauce123 we have too great equity to fold to villians raise on the flop. You are basically pissing money away by not calling the flop with your equity and implied odds.

3. J is not a bad card for him it gives him 4 more outs to hitting the nuts. I think the only hand that really beats us here once we hit one of our draws would be ATdd, maybe he is flatting preflop with AQdd+ but I highly doubt it.
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nutsinho
Old 09-13-2010, 04:17 AM #25 (permalink)  
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 i think that you should call the flop and fold on the turn
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Marshall28
Old 09-14-2010, 10:05 AM #26 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by nutsinho View Post
i think that you should call the flop and fold on the turn
Does this line not bring us into a for the most part reverse implied odds situation? We likely only get stacks in against lower flushes if we do hit, but the times we don't hit, villain keeps barreling and we fold, or the times we do hit, he has a hand he is either b/f like a set or tptk, or hands he is just purely going to give up with and try to get to showdown?

Do these instances of villain b/f a set or tptk the times we do improve make up enough for the times we are forced to put money in the pot on the flop versus the raise then just fold unimproved on the turn?

Where is this extraneous money made up for? Or if that's not the case and I'm missing something entirely, could you please clarify?
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griffey24
Old 09-14-2010, 11:09 AM #27 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall28 View Post
Where is this extraneous money made up for? Or if that's not the case and I'm missing something entirely, could you please clarify?
I think this is largely the times you call, you hit, and he continues running his elaborate bluff and bets turn and shoves river and we call down.

Or the times he value towns himself with a set after we spike.
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