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01-05-2009, 09:22 AM
Post subject: 100NL - combo draw on bricked turn
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#1 (permalink)
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Villain seems competent, the only significant history came from about an hour ago when he 2barreled with air on a turn that completed the FD and I called with TPWK or 2nd pair or something.
Bet or check? Betsize?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP ($278.30)
CO ($100)
Hero (Button) ($130.65)
SB ($99)
BB ($259.75)
UTG ($109.45)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 10 , 8
UTG raises $3.50, 1 fold, CO calls $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds
Flop: ($12) 8 , 3, K (3 players)
UTG bets $7, 1 fold, Hero raises $23, UTG calls $16
Turn: ($58) 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero?
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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I thought you raised flop to see a free river? i follow up with a check here. UTG calling range is very tight
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when you say you thought I raised so I could see a free river, it makes me think you see our hand as weak. Would you get it in on the flop if he 3bet?
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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This is what i think he has on turn:
Hand 0: 69.444% 69.44% 00.00% 825 0.00 { KK+, 88, 33, AKs, AdQd, AdJd, AKo }
Hand 1: 30.556% 30.56% 00.00% 363 0.00 { Td8d }
On the flop if he 3bets:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.251% 57.24% 00.01% 14168 1.50 { KK+, 88, 33, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 42.749% 42.74% 00.01% 10579 1.50 { Td8d }
given 43% equity you might have to get it in
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Since it was a utg cbet i might just call flop tho
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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Seems like a check because he won't be folding any K ever here. He's going for a c/r very often imo and even if he c/c's some you aren't deep enough to 3barrel him of his K.
Your hand is face up of course when you check, but a bet seems -EV.
I would also probably call the flop, although I'm not sure it's best.
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
Seems like a check because he won't be folding any K ever here. He's going for a c/r very often imo and even if he c/c's some you aren't deep enough to 3barrel him of his K.
Your hand is face up of course when you check, but a bet seems -EV.
I would also probably call the flop, although I'm not sure it's best.
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a call on the flop adds a little deception and if you get a good turncard you can shove over his 2nd barrel
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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raising the flop is fine, as is checking back the turn because of reasons already mentioned. Just take a free card and hope to get there against this guys ak/aa or whatever. Im still always getting it in on the flop if he 4 bets though.
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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Silly String
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: KC, MO
Posts: 1,434
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1) What do you think UTG calls your raise with here? BTW, I discount any NFD as he pretty much has to shove over your raise OOP to continue the hand.
2) Do you think he is folding that range?
I don't, so check behind and hope to hit a hand and get value from your weak/trappy friend. Note him up.
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Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Unless there's a timing tell indicating he probably has a clingy mid-pair this is certainly a check behind.
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good reasoning and advice guys. In the moment I bet and he did go for a checkraise (which i had to call) with AKo
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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