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RML604
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08-31-2010, 01:02 PM
Post subject: 100NL - Bottom set on mono flop, but seriously considering folding
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 166
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MP is pretty aggressive, 28/23/10 3bet over 200 hands. BTN is pretty straight forward, 26/20/3 over 200 hands, but does have a flop aggression factor of 7.
I don't think he ever gets to the flop with an overpair. So I figured he's either got a bigger set, made flush, or perhaps 2 overs with 1 heart.
So far I've heard all sorts of different suggestions on this hand, from flatting and c/shoving a blank turn, to getting the money in now, to folding. The more I think about it myself, the more I think folding is the right play, but I'm really not sure.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($325.45)
UTG ($112.65)
MP ($137.90)
CO ($101.50)
Button ($112.30)
SB ($152.70)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 2 , 2
1 fold, MP bets $3.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50
Flop: ($11) 8 , 10, 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $7, MP calls $7, Button raises to $24, Hero ?
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bspahn
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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being that you said BTN has AF 7, and they're both very loose players esp for these stakes i think both their ranges are wide enough that you should never consider insta folding here, true you don't have that much invested yet and MP does have a 137bb stack...
if you bet, MP raises, and BTN re-raises i'd argue more for folding just because it's ridiculously hard for BTN in that spot to have worse than top set or a made flush considering it's 3 ways and your hand could be very strong.
i think calling is best, it keeps their draws in you just have to re-eval and on certain turns muck this thing.
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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You've heard different suggestions because the difference in EV is small no matter how you choose to play it. To me it looks like a pretty standard fold.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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jesus dont call and c/r blank turn. anything else seems reasonable
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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mfbkevin35
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High Card
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 3
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reraise would be fine to me. but not a shove.
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