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100NL A5s CO, fire the 3rd bullet?

  
 
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Parasurama
Old 07-10-2009, 07:46 PM     Post subject: 100NL A5s CO, fire the 3rd bullet? #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 23/20 over 100 hands, 7.6% 3b, 10% from SB (1/10) and seemed pretty solid postflop, but I didn't have any idea how deeply he was thinking.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($133.70)
SB ($108.95)
BB ($186.35)
UTG ($217.30)
MP ($66.90)
Hero (CO) ($100)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5, A
2 folds, Hero bets $3.50, 1 fold, SB calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($8) J, 2, 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.50, SB calls $5.50

Turn: ($19) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $14.95, SB calls $14.95

River: ($48.90) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $48.90 | Rake: $2.40

Looking at it now maybe I should check the turn? I just figured lol I have so much equity now must bet. I wanted to fire the river because I'm never winning at showdown but was unsure if he was going to fold AJ/KJ/QJ often enough. I think he's probably folding 55-77/99/TT on the turn, so I'm basically trying to fold out Jx if I bet.

Does this depend mostly on my image? I wasn't getting dealt anything playable so I'm sure I looked nitty preflop but idk about postflop and It almost seems like being viewed as nitty preflop would be a detriment to pulling off a successful bluff here.

If I bet I feel like the value range I'm repping is like QQ-AA/JJ/44/22/9Ts, so maybe that's too narrow to bet this here?
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bode
Old 07-11-2009, 01:14 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Is villain likely to call QJ+ out of the blinds? I really dont see any hands he's taking this line with besides AJ/KJ/QJs/maybe JTs and exactly 99/TT. He most likely folds 99/TT here but obv that is the smaller part of his range and i see so many regs that are unable to fold a J here ever that i think its fine to check it back. Turn bet is fine either way i think, but this hand is as good as any to help out your turn barreling frequency.
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bspahn
Old 07-11-2009, 01:58 AM #3 (permalink)  
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one cool thing about this particular hand is that he'll never give you credit for a str8 or flush in which case if you decide to max your equity on the turn here and bet (30% equity?) then you have a better idea of what HE has which can be good in deciding how big to bet IF You hit your river...

in general i check this though, the turn doesnt change the board, tough to rep much other than a good J or QQ+ right
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Old 07-11-2009, 02:22 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I don't like a third barrel because I think he's going to put us exactly on the hand we are repping
the only draw that completed is T9

I don't know what your image is, but personally people snapcall me with QJ here because they expect me to fire a third barrel with air
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Galapogos
Old 07-11-2009, 02:52 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by iopq
I don't like a third barrel because I think he's going to put us exactly on the hand we are repping
wat? We're repping an overpair TPGK or sets. If you meant to say he's going to read our hand I seriously doubt he's going to put us on an Ax gutshot that turned a flushdraw. Especially with the nitty image we have thus far.

Though I agree I don't like the 3rd barrel just based more on the fact that I don't think 100nl regs fold top pair especially on a board that didn't get scary.

Plus the fact that he called 2 barrels after you've been relatively tight Parasurama makes me think he's definitely looking to c/c a blank river.


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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
 
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Renton
Old 07-11-2009, 05:25 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 yeah, but shove instead of bet
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Parasurama
Old 07-11-2009, 05:45 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
I don't like a third barrel because I think he's going to put us exactly on the hand we are repping
the only draw that completed is T9

I don't know what your image is, but personally people snapcall me with QJ here because they expect me to fire a third barrel with air
What's the hand we are repping? If you're talking about my value range then I want him to put me on that if I bet.

People call me here with QJ pretty often but i'm not sure if it's related to my image.
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Old 07-11-2009, 06:04 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Galapogos
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Originally Posted by iopq
I don't like a third barrel because I think he's going to put us exactly on the hand we are repping
wat? We're repping an overpair TPGK or sets. If you meant to say he's going to read our hand I seriously doubt he's going to put us on an Ax gutshot that turned a flushdraw. Especially with the nitty image we have thus far.

Though I agree I don't like the 3rd barrel just based more on the fact that I don't think 100nl regs fold top pair especially on a board that didn't get scary.

Plus the fact that he called 2 barrels after you've been relatively tight Parasurama makes me think he's definitely looking to c/c a blank river.
I think he's just going to put us on a turned flush draw, QT, 53, A5, A3 type of hands + our value range and say fuck it and call us down

I get called here even when I shove (I know because I shove here with my value range), but if you have nittier image then it might be profitable
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Galapogos
Old 07-11-2009, 06:15 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 Ok I guess we were basically saying the same thing. I read it like you thought he was going to soul read our hand.


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I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
 
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