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jimmy44
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12-14-2008, 04:48 PM
Post subject: 100NL: 3bet pot: Semi-bluff OESD TURN?
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Place where I can spew
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No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($113.10)
UTG ($100.10)
MP ($113.20)
Button ($114.90)
SB ($100)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J , Q
2 folds, Button raises $3.50, 1 fold, Hero raises $11, Button calls $8.50
Flop: ($24.50) 2 , 10 , K (2 players)
Hero bets $14, Button calls $14
Turn: ($52.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero ???
villain was 22/19/2, steal 29% and folds to 3bet 74%
Should we semi-bluff here?
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
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He has a K here a lot that he's not folding imo. I c/f and hope for a free card.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
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Posts: 2,910
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I wonder if you can get him to lay down some of his Ks with a turn c/r.. (if he checks back c/f the non gin rivers ofc)
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
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Have you been 3betting much?
I don't think he folds a king, at worst he has KJ.
IF his range is like T9s/TJs/QTs/KQ/KJ/QQ/JJ;
and IF he folds all hands but TP;
he'll fold 42% of his range.
With the equity we have against his TP hands, can't we half pot the turn?
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Toadstool
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 442
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I barrel here - He rarely has better than KQ here, and in his mind you have AK+ a lot. I think the bulk of hands that make up the majority of his range are JJ//KJs/KQs, maaaybe JQs if he thinks you're loose.
I would say a C/R AI would be better if you were deeper as that'd give you more FE. However if you checked and he value bet and you shoved I don't think he'd be able to fold a K for ~$60 more
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nutsinho
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Toadstool
I barrel here - He rarely has better than KQ here, and in his mind you have AK+ a lot. I think the bulk of hands that make up the majority of his range are JJ//KJs/KQs, maaaybe JQs if he thinks you're loose.
I would say a C/R AI would be better if you were deeper as that'd give you more FE. However if you checked and he value bet and you shoved I don't think he'd be able to fold a K for ~$60 more
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zook
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In my games almost no one folds a K here or to a river 3rd barrel, but maybe your games are different.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
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your sizing is terrible, every street
also just fold pre
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Alexos
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
your sizing is terrible, every street
also just fold pre
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??flop sizing is perfect
pf id make it 12-13 but std is to fold yea
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nutsinho
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i dont expect him to fold a king. i dont expect him to often have one either. you guys are giving his flop calling range WAY too much credit. if i didnt think i could profitably double or triple barrel this flop, i wouldnt bet the flop at all. its a pretty decent option because youll get credit for an all right hand when you check on this texture after 3betting pre.
I should have added earlier that preflop is terrrrrrible.
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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you guys are giving his flop calling range WAY too much credit.
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Yeah, probably.
Quote:
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I should have added earlier that preflop is terrrrrrible.
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agree
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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if i didnt think i could profitably double or triple barrel this flop, i wouldnt bet the flop at all.
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Yah I definitely agree with this. There are tons of hands I think call this flop, that aren't feeling too great about a second barrel. AJ, AQ, JQ, 9Ts, TJs, JJ, QQ and even KJs aren't loving a double.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Alexos
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
your sizing is terrible, every street
also just fold pre
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??flop sizing is perfect
pf id make it 12-13 but std is to fold yea |
how is any bet size "perfect" that causes the stack to pot ratio to be 3:2 on the next street?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
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88:50 is 3:2, CRAZY
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Alexos
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
your sizing is terrible, every street
also just fold pre
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??flop sizing is perfect
pf id make it 12-13 but std is to fold yea |
how is any bet size "perfect" that causes the stack to pot ratio to be 3:2 on the next street? |
wtv, just adjust your betsizes a little
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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jimmy44
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Full House
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Thanks for the comments guys!
But why 3betting with QJo a guy that folds to 75% is bad?
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minSim
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jimmy44
Thanks for the comments guys!
But why 3betting with QJo a guy that folds to 75% is bad?
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I take a guess;
the times you hit a pair and villain continues, you'll almost always be behind. So you're probably gonna loose money postflop the times you hit.
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jimmy44
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2006
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Thanks!
So a hand like 87o or 98o would be better? or better do it with 97s?
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Toadstool
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2005
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In this situation, what you are doing by 3 betting QJ is - building a large pot, OOP, with a hand that is extremely likely to be dominated (against somebody with a 75% fold to 3bet, he is never going to call the preflop 3 bet with a hand that you dominate) very -EV.
Yeah 3 betting 87o or similar is better, as you aren't going to find yourself in as many tricky spots postflop.
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
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wait a sec, ofc we can 3bet QJo here!! if he folds 75% of the time we are winning money through FOLD EQUITY preflop. hell its even possible that if we c/f every flop we profit overall (math was ofc not done to prove lol).
so what if we are dominated by his calling range. we will ALWAYS be fucked vs his calling range anyway.
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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kmind
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Straight Flush
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Yeah, kind of agree with Da Goat. Seems like raising pre still nets us EV as opposed to neutral EV of folding preflop. BUT, in this sense, it does mean we have to c/f postflop. I definitely understand the potential risk of 3betting this preflop but it seems like the immediate reward is too good to warrant a fold preflop.
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BigPapi
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Rotterdam, Holland
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if we're raising just for fold equity we better take a hand like 72o which wont get us into difficult spots postflop most of the time. plus we dont take the value out of our hand. we might be ahead of his raising range, but definitely behind his 3bet calling range
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
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well since we have QJ then it discounts cards against his strong range.
preflop for me tho is a mix of calling/3betting/folding depending on player. if he folds 75% of time to a 3bet and opening a wide btn range im probably never folding this hand.
big papi, your saying you prefer calls in this spot then. id like to here some postflop reads on opp too.
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Da GOAT
wait a sec, ofc we can 3bet QJo here!! if he folds 75% of the time we are winning money through FOLD EQUITY preflop. hell its even possible that if we c/f every flop we profit overall (math was ofc not done to prove lol).
so what if we are dominated by his calling range. we will ALWAYS be fucked vs his calling range anyway.
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This is right if you're playing perfect/good postflop.
But if you're playing slightly -EV postflop because of the domination, you preflop +EV could be vanished pretty fast.
If you have the change of 3betting all sorts of non dominated crap, why take a 'risky' hand like this one. Just wait for one of the other 30%+ hands you can 3bet here, it's not a big deal to let this change go. Or just call, you have a nice hand against his opening range.
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BigPapi
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Rotterdam, Holland
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if he's opening such a big range from the btn our QJ increases strength against his range, but when he calls our 3bet we're going to be in bad shape. 72o for example is already in bad shape anyway, so we dont lose any value.
definitely not folding this preflop either here. at 100NL most villains play pretty straight forward postflop so it should not be too hard to figure out. as we see here, he's not folding to a 2nd barrel imo. the board structure hasnt changed much and they dont peel enough for it to be profitable i think on these boards
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
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Whoa hey dont get all crazy with your 3betting dudes. it's true that in a vacuum, 3betting this QJo in this spot may be +EV. It may also be +EV with almost any two cards! If you have a solid reg type image, shit, you can probably just 3bet shove here with any two cards and it will be +EV! So why not? The idea is that people will adjust to your 3betting and start to call or 4bet bluff with a wider range the more you are 3betting. Your opponent is already probably adjusted somewhat to this spot since you are 3betting from the blinds vs. a button raise, and they perceive you to have a wider range than say, a spot where you 3bet their UTG raise from the CO. Plus they have a positional advantage, which is absolutely critical in 3bet pots. I bet that 75% stat isnt filtered to a specific position-versus-position situation, and even if it is, you don't have a meaningful sample size or an idea of what he is thinking gameflow-wise. You need to pick and choose the best range to 3bet with here, and if you really do feel he's folding too much currently, for reasons other than reading numbers off your stupid HUD, then you can exploit that by making your range slightly larger. QJo should not be in that range since you can't play it for value out of position effectively in a 3bet pot and you can probably just call profitably versus most opponents.
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Whoa hey dont get all crazy with your 3betting dudes. it's true that in a vacuum, 3betting this QJo in this spot may be +EV. It may also be +EV with almost any two cards! If you have a solid reg type image, shit, you can probably just 3bet shove here with any two cards and it will be +EV! So why not? The idea is that people will adjust to your 3betting and start to call or 4bet bluff with a wider range the more you are 3betting. Your opponent is already probably adjusted somewhat to this spot since you are 3betting from the blinds vs. a button raise, and they perceive you to have a wider range than say, a spot where you 3bet their UTG raise from the CO. Plus they have a positional advantage, which is absolutely critical in 3bet pots. I bet that 75% stat isnt filtered to a specific position-versus-position situation, and even if it is, you don't have a meaningful sample size or an idea of what he is thinking gameflow-wise. You need to pick and choose the best range to 3bet with here, and if you really do feel he's folding too much currently, for reasons other than reading numbers off your stupid HUD, then you can exploit that by making your range slightly larger. QJo should not be in that range since you can't play it for value out of position effectively in a 3bet pot and you can probably just call profitably versus most opponents.
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Listen to this guy you 3-betting monkeys 
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
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woa excellent post
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
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I side with nuts now
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kmind
I side with nuts now
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Agreed. I stopped 3betting a lot of marginal hands and began calling instead. I think it allows villain to make a lot of errors post flop while giving you the freedom to let go of the hand. I'm also suicidal in 3bet pots where I raise.
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LOL OPERATIONS
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STHollywood
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3-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigred
Quote:
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Originally Posted by kmind
I side with nuts now
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Agreed. I stopped 3betting a lot of marginal hands and began calling instead. I think it allows villain to make a lot of errors post flop while giving you the freedom to let go of the hand. I'm also suicidal in 3bet pots where I raise. |
Wouldn't the more +EV move than calling be to start folding marginal hands OOP?
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
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Great post nuts
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by STHollywood
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigred
Quote:
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Originally Posted by kmind
I side with nuts now
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Agreed. I stopped 3betting a lot of marginal hands and began calling instead. I think it allows villain to make a lot of errors post flop while giving you the freedom to let go of the hand. I'm also suicidal in 3bet pots where I raise. |
Wouldn't the more +EV move than calling be to start folding marginal hands OOP? |
It depends, pay attention to your opponents, get comfortable postflop and calling can be okay.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,981
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Alexos
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Alexos
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
your sizing is terrible, every street
also just fold pre
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??flop sizing is perfect
pf id make it 12-13 but std is to fold yea |
how is any bet size "perfect" that causes the stack to pot ratio to be 3:2 on the next street? |
wtv, just adjust your betsizes a little |
yeah only a little adjustment is required but its still really important. if the spr were 1:1 or 2.5:1 on this street decisions would be much simpler and more profitable
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,147
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Let me just contribute somethings that may have not been contributed yet.
I don't like two barrelling here in general too much because I think opps calling range on the flop is balanced between stuff he's not going to fold and stuff he is going to fold. I agree with Renton about the SPR, I also like betting less on the flop because this is the best draw we can have on this flop and we essentially have to two barrel it. Betting less allows a hand like 55/44 or some other weak hand (maybe A9/A8 as well) he may fold to a big bet to call, therefore making a turn barrel more profitable.
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