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09-23-2009, 02:04 AM
Post subject: 100NL 3b pot with suited connectors
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#1 (permalink)
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villain looks like a reg, has auto-top up on, but I don't know stars regs so it's a tentative read
he just 3b me IP last hand and gave up on QQ3 board, checked back flop and folded turn
he 3bs me again and I just think he's levelling me into thinking it's strong although his last 3b looked like AK to me because of how he played it, so unless he just picked up AK like twice in a row I would expect this to be weak? anyway the sizing is small, he did the same sizing as last hand even though I opened for 4x this time so I have better odds to call even though I'm OOP
his line looks like some hand with showdown value on the flop, should I overbet shove river, bet river small or c/r river?
if he has KK then he calls a shove, and probably bets for value on the river and calls a shove, but could potentially flat my small river bet (although he could still shove)
if he has Axs then he can only call a small river bet, and checks back river so small bet is better
if he has a bluff c/r gets some value from inducing him to bet this river, but why would he check a bluff back on the flop unless he turns TT into a bluff seeing the heart river (although that wouldn't make sense seeing as how he wouldn't expect me think he'd check a flush draw back on the flop)
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($26.20)
BB ($120.35)
UTG ($100.75)
Hero (MP) ($111.60)
CO ($100)
Button ($179.25)
Preflop: Hero is MP with 8 , 9
1 fold, Hero bets $4, CO raises to $11, 3 folds, Hero calls $7
Flop: ($23.50) 6, 2 , A (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks
Turn: ($23.50) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $14, Hero calls $14
River: ($51.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero?
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BigLRIP
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: BC
Posts: 194
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I would check raise allin. I really doubt he calls a bet with TT-QQ, but he'll bet AQ, AK, AA, KK, maybe even worse aces as your hand looks weak, and also allows him to bluff with air. I don't really like pre-flop or turn. Turn check call cant possibly be +EV.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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I probably fold pre, but as played I c/r all-in.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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jjbish
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 84
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Your hand looks a lot like what it is imo. I think you have to bet and hope he raises you to get it all in. Might even want to make it look donkish to get him to shove? maybe $17ish
I think he checks behind here often based on your play, unless he's firing air or has AK+
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NH, WP, GG, TY, Etc..........................
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jjbish
Your hand looks a lot like what it is imo.
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I don't think his hand looks like what it is at all. His hand looks like a weak Ax type hand, or a hand like KQ/KJ or something. Maybe sometimes JJ/QQ.
Most people would lead their FD's on the turn after flop checks through thinking they have FE, not realizing that they probably rarely have too much FE in this spot and the K is a pretty bad card too.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,837
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This is something I have had issue with lately and need to stop. Calling OOP with SC against Regs that can C/B flops and not let me get money in with good equity. He basically screwed you by checking this flop even with TPTK, because your never getting it in now on the turn with a ton of equity and certainly have no FE.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jyms
Calling OOP with SC against Regs
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I can't imagine this being profitable really. If someone can show me a positive winrate from calling 67,78 and 89ss OOP to 3bets, I'd like to see that.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jyms
He basically screwed you by checking this flop even with TPTK.
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I'm not sure if the check back really screwed him. I don't think that getting it in on this flop is a good idea. Anyone that can hand read can see that a c/r on this board doesn't rep much. If anything it just gave hero a free card. There's no point c/r flop where most of hero's range will be c/c this flop.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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BigLRIP
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: BC
Posts: 194
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Most people would lead their FD's on the turn after flop checks through thinking they have FE, not realizing that they probably rarely have too much FE in this spot and the K is a pretty bad card too.
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I wonder why you think there isn't much fold equity firing on the turn? Is it because you feel his range is mostly hands like AQ or AJ that checked flop for pot control and will just call down?
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BigLRIP
Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Most people would lead their FD's on the turn after flop checks through thinking they have FE, not realizing that they probably rarely have too much FE in this spot and the K is a pretty bad card too.
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I wonder why you think there isn't much fold equity firing on the turn? Is it because you feel his range is mostly hands like AQ or AJ that checked flop for pot control and will just call down? |
I think if most people had air and were going to bluff that they would bet the flop. After checking the flop I'd imagine most people have SD value (Ax, AAA, TT+) and are at least calling a turn bet and sometimes a river bet too. If you're going to bluff with 89hh on the turn, you'll need to fire twice almost always I'd imagine.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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yeah I feel the same as well, at least the c/c disguises our hand
as far as calling 3bs with 89s: we don't need to show that we're +EV with those hands, only that we're losing less on average than our raise amount
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Andytheman01
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 2
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I would have put him on weak pocket pair, like JJ or QQ that missed.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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you must be ridiculously easy to play against.. do you really have no c/r range?
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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if your calling sc's OOP you should probably overall look at your 3bet flatting range, there could be serious leaks. that leak alone was costing me a loooot of money until I straightened it out (not completely, but better than before). we need a good thread on 3bet flatting ranges.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
as far as calling 3bs with 89s: we don't need to show that we're +EV with those hands, only that we're losing less on average than our raise amount
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ok fine.. so show me then? Cause until someone shows me a decent sample of calling these hands OOP, I will not believe it.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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fold turn?
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Check out my self-deprecation here!
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dev
fold turn?
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we have a ridiculously easy call due to implied odds
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Dragon Slayer
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 228
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What was your goal with Calling the 3 bet? Did you have a plan post? Seems like a tough situation to extract value OOP. As played dont think we get much value on river by leading. Guess C/R is bet option.
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