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10-10 hand

  
 
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Les_Worm
Old 07-15-2005, 02:48 PM     Post subject: 10-10 hand #1 (permalink)  
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I thought he had a big pair and thinking back I should have just folded preflop. Going w/ my read I know I'm like a 4 to 1 dog. I was able to get away on the flop but I cost myself $4.

#Game No : 2367376446
***** Hand History for Game 2367376446 *****
$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, July 15, 10:43:45 EDT 2005
Table Table 54792 (6 max) (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: HornFan52 ( $8.55 )
Seat 2: ducebag1 ( $42.70 )
Seat 4: Talent03 ( $41.16 )
Seat 5: andreDgiant ( $23.90 )
Seat 6: TheRedArrow ( $25.25 )
Seat 3: crump66 ( $38.65 )
HornFan52 posts small blind [$0.10].
ducebag1 posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Talent03 [ Th Td ]
Talent03 raises [$1].
andreDgiant folds.
HornFan52 calls [$0.90].
ducebag1 raises [$4.75].
Talent03 calls [$4].
HornFan52 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5d, 6c, 7h ]
ducebag1 is all-In [$37.70]
Talent03 folds.
ducebag1 shows [ Jc, Jd ] a pair of jacks.
ducebag1 wins $48.15 from the main pot with a pair of jacks.
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dalecooper
Old 07-15-2005, 02:59 PM #2 (permalink)  
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That's a hefty raise and he doesn't have enough to pay you off if you hit a set... definite fold pre-flop.
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Les_Worm
Old 07-15-2005, 03:38 PM #3 (permalink)  
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This is $25nl so this is plenty enough to get paid off considering the stakes. Either way, yes, I should have folded preflop.
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dalecooper
Old 07-15-2005, 05:50 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Les_Worm
This is $25nl so this is plenty enough to get paid off considering the stakes.
I would prefer for both of you to have deeper stacks. You're calling a raise for 1/10th of your stack (and his); for this move to be profitable you have to be virtually assured of getting his entire stack when you hit your set. In other words, if you made this move 9 times:

- 8 times you would lose your $4 and fold (net loss of $32)
- 1 time you would hit a set and, ideally, get his whole stack (net gain of about $44)

...which makes it look quite profitable, IF you can get his entire stack every time you make the set. However, if we say you can only get his stack 2/3 of the time, then the profit on the hits reduces to an average of about $30, and this is slightly -EV to call. Basically you're gambling on the idea that when you hit your ten, you'll get all his money 100% of the time, and I don't like to make that gamble. If you both had $60 or more (15x the raise) left in your stacks, this is an easy call, because you only need to bust him a little more than half the time that you hit to make it a profitable move.

Everybody has their own rule of thumb on calling with dominated pocket pairs and trying to hit a set. Mine is about 15x the raise, or better, in both of our stacks. That changes if there are other callers or a pre-existing big pot, but that's my rule when probably seeing the flop heads up.
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