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1/2 - top two c/r'ed 200bb deep

  
 
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zook
Old 11-07-2009, 08:59 PM     Post subject: 1/2 - top two c/r'ed 200bb deep #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is a reg running 25/20/3 over a bunch of hands. He's a big loser in my sample but I don't think of him being that bad. My only notes is that he will call my 3bets light ip and doesn't give my cbets much credit. He c/r's flop 9%.

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saw flop

Hero (MP) ($771.95)
Button ($277.35)
SB ($400)
BB ($397.80)
UTG ($740.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, 10
1 fold, Hero bets $7, 2 folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($16.50) 10, Q, 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, BB raises to $48, Hero calls $34

Turn: ($112.50) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $83, Hero...
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griffey24
Old 11-07-2009, 09:12 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Turn isn't too great, I'm probably always seeing a river and re-evaluating.
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Pelion
Old 11-07-2009, 09:29 PM #3 (permalink)  
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With his stats isnt J9s (or J9) pretty much always going to be a 3bet or fold preflop? This turn doesnt look all that scary to me.

With any 9, J, A, being a scarecard to both us and villain, wouldnt it be better to just ship it now? Stack sizes are kinda big but not outrageously so.
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OP
Old 11-07-2009, 10:32 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Since he can barrel with impunity like every card above a 6 that doesnt pair the board, I think I 3bet the flop to something tiny like 105-110ish (I personally would probably CiB) and expect him to jam a ton of shit we're ahead of.
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Marshall28
Old 11-07-2009, 11:07 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Your only options are, shove turn, or call turn then call any non spade river. 3betting the flop is bad because you never get it in against worse, you only ever get it in crushed by a set or flipping to a hand like KJss.

If you don't think he's capable of having hands like 89dd or AJdd or any other related gutters w/out flush draws and will shove them on the river, then it's likely much better to just shove the turn.
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OP
Old 11-08-2009, 01:24 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I dont see how fast playing top 2 on this board is bad.

High Variance? Yes

Bad? No

I would say 3bet/calling 44 on the flop is quote unquote bad

He's taken away your initative and can apply annoying amounts of pressure 200BB deep. I do see merit in using this oppurtunity to bluff catch but against a good player it's going to be a loong bumpy road to showdown and there is just gobs of turns and rivers he can barrel and make us fold since he can rep like every goddamn gutshot, open ender and FD and we're going to get put in EXTREEEEMELY shitty spots.

On top of that, I almost guarantee if he's capable of c/r KQ/QJ type hands for value/protection he's jamming them over a 3bet and we have him nailed to the wall in those spots.

66 is the only set he can really have and I'm not a big fan of folding 2 over pairs when there's 3 combos of a better hand he can have and even that is a pretty small part of his range on this board.

I mean, if you get shoved on preflop 200BB deep (playing live in a game you're rolled for obv) while you have QQ and he flips AKs accidentally and you see, do you fold because you're flipping or stick it in?

I just don't think you always have to have 90% of the pot equity to put all your money in.

I'm not a "grinder" and don't play to pay bills so I'm more prone to get in these high variance spots and push a 3ish% (<-- made up number, dont hold me to it) edge deepstacked. So, I'm not handing out advice and saying "this is wrong and this is right"...just what I would personally do here.

The variance train to valueville pulled into the station and I'm jumping on it hobo style on this flop and just hope it takes me in the right direction.


**Side Note: He's a good player but a big loser so he probably runs like AIDS and his draw won't get there or you'll bink the nuts. JAJAJAJA
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oskar
Old 11-08-2009, 02:29 AM #7 (permalink)  
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oskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura about
 If I think he'll 3-bet all pairs pre, then I don't think 3b/shipping the flop is all that bad because his range is a lot of draws right there.
But against a relative unknown it's pretty gay, and I think I just call there too, and call the turn.

What I like to do there is to suck out against J9. Pro play imo.
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Ravageur
Old 11-08-2009, 02:33 AM #8 (permalink)  
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i dunno i think 3-betting the flop/getting it in is fine, especially if we're going to freak out over this turn card (a good one imo). I think all options except fold are fine on the turn though, raise/call or just call and then call a non a/9/spade river i guess - I suppose the value in not getting it in on the flop is that if a scare card comes (one of cards previously mentioned) sometimes you check it down vs his 66? Interesting hand for sure.
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Marshall28
Old 11-08-2009, 02:40 AM #9 (permalink)  
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You don't win money at poker by getting your money in as a very marginal favorite. Sorry, maybe you win a couple dollars.

However, you do lose a lot of money getting it in really bad.

You're undervaluing how important it is that we have position here.
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Ravageur
Old 11-08-2009, 03:44 AM #10 (permalink)  
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don't you think that villain is folding to a 3-bet here sometimes? his range seems pretty wide to me - lots of bare straight draws, bare flush draws as well as 666 and the combo draws not to mention pure air sometimes. That Combined with the fact we're usually a bit ahead here when we do get it in makes this +ev, which does win us quite a few dollars Taking down, what, 35 BBs? on the flop is nothing to sneeze at either.
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Ravageur
Old 11-08-2009, 03:45 AM #11 (permalink)  
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but i do agree that calling the flop has lots of merit here for the reasons mentioned above.
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Marshall28
Old 11-08-2009, 09:27 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ravageur
don't you think that villain is folding to a 3-bet here sometimes? his range seems pretty wide to me - lots of bare straight draws, bare flush draws as well as 666 and the combo draws not to mention pure air sometimes. That Combined with the fact we're usually a bit ahead here when we do get it in makes this +ev, which does win us quite a few dollars :) Taking down, what, 35 BBs? on the flop is nothing to sneeze at either.
Agreed.

I guess I'd say calling flop>>3betting flop>>>>>>>>>>>>folding
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zook
Old 11-08-2009, 06:43 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Ok. I called and he instashoved the river spade. Easy fold? My take on the timing is that it makes J9 and 66 less likely, leaving him with flushes and air. But those weren't much of his range anyway imo.

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, 10
1 fold, Hero bets $7, 2 folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($16.50) 10, Q, 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, BB raises to $48, Hero calls $34

Turn: ($112.50) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $83, Hero calls $83

River: ($278.50) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $259.50 (All-In), Hero... (covers)
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meeloche
Old 11-08-2009, 06:46 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 I think you played it well and I would fold the river.



 
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Ravageur
Old 11-08-2009, 08:13 PM #15 (permalink)  
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river is tough...as you said it's pretty polarized between the nuts and kj but i guess it's a fold.
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bjsaust
Old 11-09-2009, 12:22 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Rivers probably a fold, but as far as timing goes, wouldn't he be more likely to spend a small amount of time thinking about his best line if he hit his flush?
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griffey24
Old 11-09-2009, 12:35 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bjsaust
Rivers probably a fold, but as far as timing goes, wouldn't he be more likely to spend a small amount of time thinking about his best line if he hit his flush?
Some people already have their mind made up that if they hit the flush they will 'insta-jam' to make it "look bluffy'.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 11-09-2009, 04:23 AM #18 (permalink)  
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 if you 3ball the flop he could easily call with a draw, its very unlikely you're beat with no straights and flushes possibly. i really feel like calling the flop here is quite bad.
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griffey24
Old 11-09-2009, 01:02 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
if you 3ball the flop he could easily call with a draw, its very unlikely you're beat with no straights and flushes possibly. i really feel like calling the flop here is quite bad.
I agree that in a vacuum with this hand only, 3betting is definitely better. But sooo much of our range on this board is going to be b/c this c/r here with one pair or a draw that I feel like we need some strong hands to balance here?
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I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 11-10-2009, 12:41 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
if you 3ball the flop he could easily call with a draw, its very unlikely you're beat with no straights and flushes possibly. i really feel like calling the flop here is quite bad.
I agree that in a vacuum with this hand only, 3betting is definitely better. But sooo much of our range on this board is going to be b/c this c/r here with one pair or a draw that I feel like we need some strong hands to balance here?
Well his c/r semi bluffs are pretty clear here so id rather just try and hero call weak hands here sometimes. Also, when a Q or T comes he's definitely not gonna bluff again. I dont see an argument for balancing here.

+, as i said before, you have probably the best hand and you're just gonna let him draw to the river? Sounds like an awful plan.
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OP
Old 11-10-2009, 02:36 AM #21 (permalink)  
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weeeeee

even Redgrape the nit agrees with me
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c-luvin
Old 11-10-2009, 03:13 AM #22 (permalink)  
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so max do you raise here?



PokerStars Game #35153039682: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4 USD) - 2009/11/09 23:07:58 ET
Table 'Lilofee' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: hook2120 ($412.50 in chips)
Seat 2: CylusBallin ($661.70 in chips)
Seat 3: gp333 ($717.90 in chips)
Seat 4: OddsAgainstU ($477.10 in chips)
Seat 5: FrAnWaN ($557.50 in chips)
Seat 6: z8eldred ($604.70 in chips)
OddsAgainstU: posts small blind $2
FrAnWaN: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CylusBallin [8d Ad]
z8eldred: folds
hook2120: folds
CylusBallin: raises $8 to $12
gp333: folds
OddsAgainstU: calls $10
FrAnWaN: folds
*** FLOP *** [9h 8h 9c]
OddsAgainstU: checks
CylusBallin: bets $20
OddsAgainstU: raises $39.90 to $59.90
CylusBallin: ....
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Marshall28
Old 11-10-2009, 07:25 PM #23 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
if you 3ball the flop he could easily call with a draw, its very unlikely you're beat with no straights and flushes possibly. i really feel like calling the flop here is quite bad.
I just find that almost no decent winning player ever ever ever calls a 3bet on this flop oop here with a draw--I mean unless you make your 3b quite small--which would be counterproductive anyways.

I like your idea about calling this down more often w/ single pr type hands because there isn't a need to balance, but I just still think there is way more value in seeing a turn in position deep. We can shove over his turn bets on good cards, or we can represent scary cards if he decides to check.

I guess I just feel like the times we get it in bad vs the times we get it in flipping vs the times he folds to our 3bet, that we just aren't making THAT big of a profit. I think it will be minimal at best. Whereas if we see the turn we can make much more +ev decisions and own our opponent.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 11-11-2009, 08:20 PM #24 (permalink)  
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 I agree with Max i'd threebet the flop. I think most of the time he raises the flop its a good enough draw that hes not going to want to fold to a 3bet and he may think there's enough FE to shove anyways.
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