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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
You're ahead way too much not to bet this. If he's a good folder than its close.
Hands that beat AA on this board: 68, 69, 79, 89, 99, T9, J9, Q9, K9, A9, QJ, QT, JT, J8, T8, JJ, TT, AK, QQ*, 66*, 88* (* = maybe less likely since even a station usually finds a raise with these)
Hands that don't: A6, A8, K8, 78, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, KT, 77
I'm leaving out a few hands I feel are improbable, but if you want to include them you are also ahead of 22-55 and K6 (of course if we're throwing those in we should also consider including a couple other garbage hands you are behind, like Q8, Q6, J6, T6). It's also worth pointing out that there are more aces in the 2nd group than the 1st, meaning those hands are less likely (since hero has two aces).
The real problem to me is twofold: 1. the first bracket include a lot more hands; 2. a guy leaning toward station folds almost none of the winning hands, where he plausibly might fold a few of the losing ones (since several of them are really, really weak by the river) to a substantial value bet.
I still say check. I'd be really curious to hear how this turned out, too, though I don't think I would change my mind.
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