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zook
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11-07-2009, 09:05 PM
Post subject: 1/2 - donking AQo on A-high board
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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UTG is running 16/12/2.1 and raising 10% utg. Is a losing player over a decent sample and goes to showdown 28%. No history I'm aware of. MP is a big fish, running 38/8/1.9 and is very loose passive.
Thoughts on donking and river plan?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
MP ($156.40)
CO ($216.90)
Button ($217.25)
SB ($176.35)
Hero (BB) ($200.25)
UTG ($219.05)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A , Q
UTG bets $7, MP calls $7, 3 folds, Hero calls $5
Flop: ($22) 6, 9 , A (3 players)
Hero bets $15, UTG calls $15, MP calls $15
Turn: ($67) 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $30, UTG calls $30, 1 fold
River: ($127) 2 (2 players)
Hero... ($148 behind)
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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Ugh this is really bad. FOLD PREFLOP!!!
UTG's range for continuing to your donk is sets, AK and sometimes AQ. This is pretty bad spew.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I think pre-flop is close, but utg is definitely calling the flop with AJ and AT (if he raises it pre) and probably one street with JJ-KK. Obviously I donk the turn expecting UTG to fold a lot and fishy MP to continue with worse aces. I'm surprised you think this is terrible.
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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If UTG ever had AJ/AT in his range sure. But he has 10% of hands. Most of those will fold to your donk bet, however, the overwhelming majority of those hands that continue are only ones that you are doing very poorly against.
Preflop isn't even debatable, it's a very easy fold. Well, I suppose there could be an argument made for squeezing to try to push UTG out of the pot and induce the fish to call you with his random garbage. I can't come up with a good reason to call though.
Think about the motivations of a player playing 16/12 and how often he thinks hands like KK-JJ and AJ/AT are strong enough to continue here.
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aka_red
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Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: house
Posts: 903
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I think betting the turn here is spew. It really over represents your hand IMO. But I don't understand why you are betting the turn. I think that the board is dry enough that he can just call with all the sets and two pairs or whatever and let you value own yourself. I think as played c/f
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[11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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marshall: AJo and ATs are top 10%. The guy's not a "good" 16/12, he's 10% utg, so his stats must be pretty flat across positions. meh, I'm just arguing for the sake of arguing, you're probably right.
red: again, I bet the turn for value from the fish, not utg
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aka_red
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Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: house
Posts: 903
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I'm fully aware of that, but what is utg folding. Or are you still convinced that your ahead of his range?
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[11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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utg is only folding stuff we're ahead of, but I do think we're ahead of his range. utg is not good, he's definitely peeling at least KK/QQ to a single donk bet imo.
Board: Ac 9d 6h 9c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.765% 49.80% 11.97% 6705 1611.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 38.235% 26.27% 11.97% 3537 1611.00 { QQ+, ATs+, AJo+ }
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aka_red
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Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: house
Posts: 903
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Board: 6h 9d Ac 9c
Hand 0: 54.575% 44.11% 10.46% 757 179.50 { AhQs }
Hand 1: 45.425% 34.97% 10.46% 600 179.50 { QQ+, 99, 66, A9s+, AJo+ }
Also you could argue that if he's peeling TT-KK hes also peeling some 9x hands. Not to mention your still betting against UTG despite trying to value bet against the fish only. So your bet still ought to have purpose because he is still in the pot. Like I said if UTG does anything but fold you lose the pot which seems really bad.
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[11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
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Ravageur
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Official Montreal SwampRat
Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 1,242
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wow i'm never folding this pf (why are we folding? reverse implied odds?) but that's just me and i guess i have a relatively high vpip. I'm not sure about donking here....as played I would c/fold the river 100% confident that i'm folding worst hand but also expecting to see him check back aj/a10 and some other suited ace sometimes. I guess c/call flop and reevaluate turn is standard in this spot.
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Family Cruise IMO
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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41$ on riv imo
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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griffey24
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11-08-2009, 02:20 PM
Post subject: Re: 1/2 - donking AQo on A-high board
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#12 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
UTG is running 16/12/2.1 and raising 10% utg.
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I don't think folding pre is bad at all. You're OOP, will be hard to win any kind of big pot and more likely to use a medium sized pot.
As played, I like genitruc's idea of a small block on river.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I think its a fold preflop.
Flop lead seems bad too, don't think I want to build a pot here.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I think its a fold preflop.
Flop lead seems bad too, don't think I want to build a pot here.
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i think preflop is fine with the extra caller. But i agree with you about leading, our hand is too weak against utgs preflop range to want to build a pot here.
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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I think pf is fine due to the fish, I also don't hate leading as sure utg is going to fold alot but when the fish comes along we're nearly always ahead and are looking to get 3 streets. Once utg and mp call I'm worried about utg and when the 9 turns that hits mps range hard plus we're often already behind utg so I'm just c/fing. As played I'm c/fing river.
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ATOTHEC101
I think pf is fine due to the fish, I also don't hate leading as sure utg is going to fold alot but when the fish comes along we're nearly always ahead and are looking to get 3 streets. Once utg and mp call I'm worried about utg and when the 9 turns that hits mps range hard plus we're often already behind utg so I'm just c/fing. As played I'm c/fing river.
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i like the lead because of the fish in the hand... too often, KK QQ and JJ will check back from utg and we ll miss a chance at 3 streets of value from the fish because of it
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Dragon Slayer
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 228
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So between our 3 options PF. Whats the best order? As played would we be better off Check calling? Do you guys think nits range is wider for cbetting/leading than for calling here?
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Toadstool
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 442
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Assuming UTG does have KK/QQ w/e that is going to check back. Then checking isn't that bad because on the turn, if the fish has anything that we would have got 3 streets from, he will likely bet with anyway - to which we can C/R! missed street of value problem solved?
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Toadstool
Assuming UTG does have KK/QQ w/e that is going to check back. Then checking isn't that bad because on the turn, if the fish has anything that we would have got 3 streets from, he will likely bet with anyway - to which we can C/R! missed street of value problem solved?
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fish call down so much lighter when you donk than when you CR (oh noez he s tarping me!)
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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I still think calling really sucks. Folding is likely best, but 3bet squeezing is probably okay given you don't look to play a big pot with UTG and you do look to play one with the fish.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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i think it s close enough that I d fold some pre from SB but call always from BB
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Dragon Slayer
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 228
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Marshall28
I still think calling really sucks. Folding is likely best, but 3bet squeezing is probably okay given you don't look to play a big pot with UTG and you do look to play one with the fish.
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This is wat I's be thinkin.
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