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n3wbs
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04-21-2007, 07:33 PM
Post subject: $200 NL win rates?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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I am approaching the 10,000 hands mark after a huge session that seemed like 24 hours.
What type of PTBB/100 should I bet looking at for this small sample?
I only plan to play 50,000 hands of $200 and aslong as im in profit and beating he level consistently then I will move up to $400 NL.
What is a good PTBB/100 over >50,000 for $200?
I suppose this question is going out to anybody, but especially $200 regulars.
n3wbs
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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depending on the site I'd say anything above 3 ptbb/100 is o.k. fine over 50k+ sample
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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3 PTBB/100 for 50,000+?
I hope to be doubling that over 10,000 hands.
Is 6-7 subtainable for over 50,000 playing $200?
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2_Thumbs_Up
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Sweden
Posts: 271
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Yeah that should be sustainable.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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No. A lot of very solid players at the 200NL level run under 4PTBB/100. At least at Pokerstars that seems to be the case.
You'll be very dissappointed if you're shooting for 6-7.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Stop focusing on winrates.
I'd say 3ptBB/100 is a good thing to be satisfied with.
Considering your stats at 100NL I'd bet you can run 6-7ptBB/100 at 200nl.
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Stop focusing on winrates.
I'd say 3ptBB/100 is a good thing to be satisfied with.
Considering your stats at 100NL I'd bet you can run 6-7ptBB/100 at 200nl.
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I focus on playing well at profits tbh. I am just curious on level win rates as its something you don't read that much upon.
I did hear that there is not many winners showing over 4PTBB/100 for $200 NL over a large sample size.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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Why does no one talk about how many tables you expect to play?
I'm certain I could do 6-7ptbb/100 if i was 4 tabling 200nl..
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Alexos
Why does no one talk about how many tables you expect to play?
I'm certain I could do 6-7ptbb/100 if i was 4 tabling 200nl..
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Yeah you're probably right. I think if i had a actual large monitor i could probably increase my winrate a PTBB... but sadly i just have this frickin laptop right now.
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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Sustainable?
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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This can't be post legislation... unless you play at some really really fishy euro site like PokerChamps. And even if you are you ran ridiculously hot at 100NL, 57% WON$@SD is unheard of.
However, you must be pretty damn good to have those winrates regardless of running hot.
Seriously what site do you play on?
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
This can't be post legislation... unless you play at some really really fishy euro site like PokerChamps. And even if you are you ran ridiculously hot at 100NL, 57% WON$@SD is unheard of.
However, you must be pretty damn good to have those winrates regardless of running hot.
Seriously what site do you play on? |
I play over at Party Poker, which I consider to be the softest site for small stakes.
I won't deny I run very hot at $100 NL, I never had a real "downswing" period within the 3~ months.
If you are doubting my integrity Massimo (hope your not), is there a way I can make you a believer? Not that im really bothered if thats the case lol.
n3wbs
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Memeon
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 39
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i do not post here anymore but i will vouch for his honestly and integrity
he is a good online friend and we have met twice in the past for uk events.
memeon
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Memeon
i do not post here anymore but i will vouch for his honestly and integrity
he is a good online friend and we have met twice in the past for uk events.
memeon
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Thanks Pete, but really is no need to vouch for me. I don't think Massimo was doubting my integrity?
I will stop posting the SS's, that will make things easier lol
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Oh i believe you. But you were definitely running hot over those 80k hands at 100NL, which is shown by your ridiculously high W$@SD%. I've never seen over 52% in an 80k sample let alone 57%! 200NL, well your W$@SD is actually under 50%, but you probably are still running a little hot.
I really don't want you to take this the wrong way. Those are amazing stats and you are obviously a very good player based on those stats alone. I'm guessing that 200NL will definitely be a jump from 100NL since 100NL is a "gateway game." (this isn't really the case in the US anymore because donktards can't deposit easily anymore).
But if you have those stats i'm guessing 6-7 PTBB/100 is a good estimate for you. It's good to project a little low.
Questions:
1. How many tables do you play at a time?
2. Are these stats from recently?
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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I usually play 4 tables, however if im running good on all tables ill sometimes pull up 6, but no more then 6.
The $100 NL stats are from Jan/Feb/March/April. I played $100 NL also before 2007 and went on a bad downswing but nothing tragic.
The $200 NL stats are from recently and most from the marathon session just completed.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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I'm not entirely certain this 7.77 BB/100 is the standard ptbb.
For 200NL, a ptbb is $4.
So 7.77 ptbb/100 over 10,168 hands = 7.77*$4*101.68 = $3160.21
so in this case, it seems the rate is actually 3.88 ptbb/100 at 200NL
The rate for 100NL, however, is correct at 10.67 ptbb/100
Someone correct me if this is wrong?...
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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You are correct.
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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You're right griffey. 100NL stats appear to be ptbb/100 while the 200NL stats appear to be BB/100. Weird. Not sure how that's possible in the PT setup either.
In any case, nice work n3wbs.
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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I don't understand the sums for this to be honest.
However if that is correct? How do i filter to show the correct PTBB?
Thanks for response
n3wbs
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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I just know that if you run at 5ptbb/100, you'll make a buyin every 1k hands you play...
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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Ok guys...
I just switched on "Treat BB for NL/PL as Big Blind Amt"..
This doubled my $100 NL BB/100 but my $200 NL statistics remained the same?
Any ideas?
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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w?t?f?
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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I may have it...
I turned off all my filters (which ruined my layout) but $200 NL statistics now showing +3.88, is this correct?
n3wbs
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by n3wbs
Ok guys...
I just switched on "Treat BB for NL/PL as Big Blind Amt"..
This doubled my $100 NL BB/100 but my $200 NL statistics remained the same?
Any ideas?
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That makes sense.
Before it was treating a BB for $100NL as $2 (a Big Bet), but now you've switched it to Big Blind so BB is now $1. So your rate should be twice as big in Big Blinds/100.
For 200NL it was treating BB as $2 (it was already treating it as Big Blind instead of Big Bet). So the rate should stay the same.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Alexos
w?t?f?
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lol... As you can see im not very technical!
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by n3wbs
I may have it...
I turned off all my filters (which ruined my layout) but $200 NL statistics now showing +3.88, is this correct?
n3wbs
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Yes this is correct. If you have 3.88 for 200NL and 10.67 for 100NL then both of these rates are in ptbb/100.
(edit: where ptbb = big BET = 2 times big BLIND)
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Quote:
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Originally Posted by n3wbs
I may have it...
I turned off all my filters (which ruined my layout) but $200 NL statistics now showing +3.88, is this correct?
n3wbs
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Yes this is correct. If you have 3.88 for 200NL and 10.67 for 100NL then both of these rates are in ptbb/100. |
You learn something every day!
Really appreciate this griffey, I truly didn't know all this lol.
Everything seems to be in order now... As it looks then, im going to try and achieve 4-6 PTBB/100, which seems reasonably do-able.
Thanks guys 
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by n3wbs
Everything seems to be in order now... As it looks then, im going to try and achieve 4-6 PTBB/100, which seems reasonably do-able.
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I'll use n3wbs as an example, since he maintained 10.67 ptbb over a very large sample at 100NL.
This means that he'll need to make at least 5.33 ptbb/100 at 200NL for his move UP to 200NL to be more profitable than him simply playing at 100NL.
How many ppl move up a level, and then move back down if their rate isn't at least half what it was at the previous level?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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I doubt he sustains 10.67 PTBB/100 at 100NL. Yes it's a big sample but 57% W$@SD is running really hot isn't it?
Or is 57% normal at a fishy site close to normal?
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
I doubt he sustains 10.67 PTBB/100 at 100NL. Yes it's a big sample but 57% W$@SD is running really hot isn't it?
Or is 57% normal at a fishy site close to normal?
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Downswings are evitable as we all know, its very likely I could play a further 20,000 hands of $100 NL and my PTBB/100 decrease. However I cannot see personally my rate dropping so much so that the first 87,000 hands were down to running extremely hot and lucky.
My aim rate for $200 NL is anywhere from 4-6 PTBB/100+. Whether or not that will be achievable over 50,000+ hands will remain to be seen. I think I have as big as an edge in the $200 NL games as I do in the $100 NL games. Aslong as I continue to play my A game, even throughout the bad spells I don't see why I cannot achieve my goals.
Anyway thank you again griffey24 (The Man The Legend)....
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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57% W$@SD isnt necessarily running hot, it is if his WTSD% is 28%. But still it's an awesome accomplishment.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by n3wbs
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
I doubt he sustains 10.67 PTBB/100 at 100NL. Yes it's a big sample but 57% W$@SD is running really hot isn't it?
Or is 57% normal at a fishy site close to normal?
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Downswings are evitable as we all know, its very likely I could play a further 20,000 hands of $100 NL and my PTBB/100 decrease. However I cannot see personally my rate dropping so much so that the first 87,000 hands were down to running extremely hot and lucky.
My aim rate for $200 NL is anywhere from 4-6 PTBB/100+. Whether or not that will be achievable over 50,000+ hands will remain to be seen. I think I have as big as an edge in the $200 NL games as I do in the $100 NL games. Aslong as I continue to play my A game, even throughout the bad spells I don't see why I cannot achieve my goals.
Anyway thank you again griffey24 (The Man The Legend)....
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lol.. "the man the legend".. thanks man.. not a legend quite yet, workin' on it 
Keep up the good play!
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Sorry.
i feel like i keep coming off as a dick.
Having that good a winrate at 100NL is a huge accomplishment. It's pretty amazing. I'm surprised that with how much money you won that you didn't move up sooner! You are definitely bankrolled for 400 NL unless you've cashed out a lot.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by n3wbs
Sustainable?
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you run good.
If you are on a non_USs site these stats are easily maintainable in some games. otherwise no IMO
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
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Originally Posted by n3wbs
Sustainable?
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you run good.
If you are on a non_USs site these stats are easily maintainable in some games. otherwise no IMO |
I really don't see the advantage in playing in tougher games, when you have extremely easy sit's waiting to be bleeded.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by n3wbs
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
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Originally Posted by n3wbs
Sustainable?
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you run good.
If you are on a non_USs site these stats are easily maintainable in some games. otherwise no IMO |
I really don't see the advantage in playing in tougher games, when you have extremely easy sit's waiting to be bleeded. |
so i assume you are playing non-US games then? In which case 6-7 is easily maintainable if you are half decent postflop IMO
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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Oops sorry yeah, I am currently playing Party.
My goal is to achieve 4-6 PTBB/100, anything over will be fantastic.
I don't plan to play as many hands as at $100 NL, and move up to $400 NL after 40-50,000.
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
Sorry.
i feel like i keep coming off as a dick.
Having that good a winrate at 100NL is a huge accomplishment. It's pretty amazing. I'm surprised that with how much money you won that you didn't move up sooner! You are definitely bankrolled for 400 NL unless you've cashed out a lot.
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I am properly bankrolled (50x BI) for up to $600 NL.
My goal is to be beating $1000 NL consistently by the end of 2007.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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Did you try out Stars and FT as well, before/during your play at Party?
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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read one of your other posts, good table selection does help also. Do you really datamine for 30-45 minutes before every session!?
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
read one of your other posts, good table selection does help also. Do you really datamine for 30-45 minutes before every session!?
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Around 70-80% of time I will datamine for 30 mins or more.
I like to increase my edge as much as possible, and for the sake of 30-40 minutes while you eat your dinner, watch tv or whatever else you are doing, its a nice way to gain information on players and tables.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by n3wbs
Around 70-80% of time I will datamine for 30 mins or more.
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how are you datamining party? they disabled observer hands.
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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FreePHG
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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What's freephg?
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n3wbs
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
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http://www.jukofyork.com/freephg.htm
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Harry
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Philly
Posts: 722
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I did 2.76ptbb/100 at 200nl over 46k hands. However, this was at FTP, and I'm not very good.
I think 4-6ptbb/100 would definitely be sustainable for you.
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PSU Class of 2011 weeeeeeee!
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Halv
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pro crastinator
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: No hindsight for the blind.
Posts: 1,842
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I've seen people with 8+ ptBB/100 over 100k samples on 400NL, so it could definitely be doable on 200NL.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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Cool, I didn't know about that box in preferences, I always thought I had a pretty shitty winrate. So I'm actually running at 6bb/100. Still sucks thought because before this awful stretch I was running about the same as n3wbs.
I don't think his W$@SD is running too hot though. On Pokerroom I have a WTSD of 26% and a W$@SD of 55%. And I am running far from good right now. I get 3-outted a LOT in my big pots 
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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phantom_lord
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 349
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can we get a graph of 100nl pz...
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