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  1. #1
    Jason's Avatar
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    Default Live Game Win-Rates

    I didn't want to hijack the other thread, but I too have often wondered what the hourly possibilities are with live games. The rake structure is supposed to be really bad @ the lower games like $1/$2 live, but the play is also supposed to be especially horrible, too. I think it's largely dependent on the location, number of games, players, and the like. For whatever it's worth, since I started playing poker again last December, I've been to the casino twice and both times bought in for the full $200 and cashed out $401 and $347 respectively. I probably played 3 hours each session for a total of 6 hours which is about $58 an hour. Obviously that's a pretty low sample and nothing spectacular happened in that time - 1 or 2 nice pots, not a lot of great starting hands or bad beats. I suspect that kind of win-rate is not sustainable long term. It's just a guess, but I'd say maybe $20 to $30 an hour is possible for your typical good, winning player in a live $1/$2 - the kind of player who can routinely win $25NL and higher online.

    If anyone has kept good records of live play hours played, profit made, and win-rates of the lowest stakes, I'd be interested to know what they've found. There's a casino about an hour and 45 minutes away from me that has $1/$3 NL. I haven't been there yet but I'm very interested to see the quality of play and possibilities there. Anyone have the skinny on the Evansville, IN Aztar Casino games? I have noticed in home games I can ON AVERAGE usually win a buy-in a night or a buy-in every 6 hours. We probably play 20 hands an hour, so that's about 83bb/100 or 41.5ptbb/100.
    - Jason

  2. #2
    I tracked about 12,000 hands, 25 hands/hr, at 34$/hr.
    One week I played 55 hours and made over 3k. I obviously ran well, but played well too.

    I would say $20 an hour is easy to maintain.
  3. #3
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    $20-30 per hour is reasonable for any decent players. On the weekends, you can easily make $40+ per hour as long as your table&seat selection is super.
  4. #4
    These still seem kind of high numbers. I've never played live, but has there been weeks where you broke even or even lost money?
  5. #5
    drmcboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ArcadianRock
    These still seem kind of high numbers. I've never played live, but has there been weeks where you broke even or even lost money?
    show me any poker player anywhere who says they never had a losing week/month and I'll show you a liar.
  6. #6
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    I was running about 35.00 an hour 1/2 NL live until Monday when I fgot spanked real good.
    I had been in the zone, filled all my straight draws, hit the flushes and always had TPTK and then disaster, Thats poker!
    If you can handle the swings you can do well.
    It was like I was in a different dimension. Lost with KK, QJs (flush draw) Flopped a full house pocket 22. Flop was 8.8.2. turn was a 4 and river was an 8. I lost to a player that stayed with 8,4. Not only did he have a bigger boat but he had the 4th 8.
    I am now running about 25.00 an hour but I think if you play tight aggressive and dont go on tilt you can win a few $$ at 1/2. I think its impossible to win any money at 3-6 Limit so stay away from that game. The players see every hand to the river and the suck outs are horrific.
    I am content to play three or four times a month and if I can win 200-300 a session I am happy.
    My only problem in my game is at times when the cards are running bad I start playing no to win but not to loose.
    The best advice I can give is know when to walk away. I cant remember the number of players (usually young) that will get a big stack and start playing recklessly and loose it all. When I get ahead I tighten up and become more hand selective. When the money is in the pot its no longer mine. When its stacked in front of me gthen its mine and I dont like grinding for a few hours only to make a couple of stupid plays and give it all back.
    It seems like its harder to win it and easier to loose it.
  7. #7
    Jason's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stinger
    I was running about 35.00 an hour 1/2 NL live until Monday when I fgot spanked real good ... I am now running about 25.00 an hour but I think if you play tight aggressive and dont go on tilt you can win a few $$ at 1/2.
    What kind of sample size are we talking about? I hope sometime soon I'll grind my LIVE bankroll high enough to play regularly at the casino and find out for myself. My live winnings are currently @ $2k -> only 10 buy-ins for $1/$2. It takes a while because I can only play live home games once, maybe twice a week. The blinds are $0.25/$0.50 with an occasional $0.50/$1.00 thrown in. Theoretically, if I did well enough online someday, I could pool money from online to live. But, if $25 to $35 an hour is possible at $1/$2, it makes you wonder why more players aren't playing that ... or maybe more are and I just don't know about. Or maybe they start there and graduate to $2/$5, $5/$10, and beyond.

    Quote Originally Posted by stinger
    The best advice I can give is know when to walk away. I cant remember the number of players (usually young) that will get a big stack and start playing recklessly and loose it all. When I get ahead I tighten up and become more hand selective. When the money is in the pot its no longer mine. When its stacked in front of me gthen its mine and I dont like grinding for a few hours only to make a couple of stupid plays and give it all back.
    It seems like its harder to win it and easier to loose it.
    I kind of understand what you're getting at here, but I think the really good players use those chips to their advantage to have epic winning sessions. So, I would definitely agree to NOT get too aggressive or confident just because you have a big stack because you will more likely lose it and I can imagine many players falling prey to that. However, by the same token, don't try to protect a win and get off your game because that can cause you to lose money or NOT win money that you would have had you played your normal game.
    - Jason

  8. #8
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    My win rate is only over 56 hours of live poker this session. I break it up into sessions as its easier for me to track that way.
    What I was saying about losing their stack was I see many players start out playing junk and winning. Thats luck in my opinion and not skill. When they get a large stack they continue to chase and when the cards change its "Katie bar the door". I watch those big stacks evaporate in the blink of an eye.

    I have seen players with stacks of 400-500 going all-in with Ace high or small pairs and lose. Thats what I am saying many times you get cocky and feel you are invincible and cant lose. I admit that its happen to me and I am not proud of it. When I get ahead I set a loss limit. I dont mean I play scared but I just dont feel its prudent to give back all you have won.

    The cards are fickle and I have seen a player re-buy and all of a sudden he starts to win and before you know it hes back toi even or ahead. Thats when I would walk away.

    A win is a win. Monday I watched a player get ahead and become a calling station. I guess his mindset was "I cant loose" Well guess what he could and when the smoke cleared he lost all he had won and about 200.00 additional.

    I am tight aggressive and prehaps get a little too tight when I am ahead but I like to walk out with more than I came in with.
  9. #9
    I have never had a losing week of poker when I play 25+ hours. But I have had many where i just play one day and then come back a few weeks later.
  10. #10
    I just figured out my win rate for live sessions over the past year is 55 BBs per hour, playing 1/2 cash in home games. I don't think this is anything remotely sustainable, as the sample size is only 16 sessions, but the only losing sessions I've had were the result of losing 200+ bb pots on 2-4 outers on the river.

    The remarkable thing is that I'm such a suckass cash player online. Game selection is crucial, obviously and I've figured out a couple things I do better live than online, and they're obviously about reads:

    1. I can pick better spots to bluff live than online...very few people can disguise the fact that they have absolutely no intention of putting another chip in the middle.
    2. I can make good laydowns easier live than online.

    i'm pretty sure that the caliber of play in these games is something like .25/.50 online, and I should probably play more of them.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  11. #11
    I just figured out my win rate for live sessions over the past year is 55 BBs per hour, playing 1/2 cash in home games. I don't think this is anything remotely sustainable, as the sample size is only 16 sessions, but the only losing sessions I've had were the result of losing 200+ bb pots on 2-4 outers on the river.

    The remarkable thing is that I'm such a suckass cash player online. Game selection is crucial, obviously and I've figured out a couple things I do better live than online, and they're obviously about reads:

    1. I can pick better spots to bluff live than online...very few people can disguise the fact that they have absolutely no intention of putting another chip in the middle.
    2. I can make good laydowns easier live than online.

    i'm pretty sure that the caliber of play in these games is something like .25/.50 online, and I should probably play more of them.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  12. #12
    Had my first session since posting....won $640 or 320 BBs at $1/$2 in 6 hours, again in the 50-55 BB per hour rate. I gotta find time to play these more often, but unfortunately most of the games around are 2/5 or 5/5 and I know I would not feel comfortable playing that.
  13. #13
    Jason's Avatar
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    Today, I "took a shot" @ the closest casino in Evansville, IN Aztar @ $1/$3 NL. I played 3.5 hours, bought in for $300, cashed out for $535. The games seemed very soft. Several players were visiting from out of town and were really bad. The "regulars" seemed very str8 forward betting when they had it, folding when they didn't, and even betting small when they had a small piece. There were a few who had decent stakes and seemed to know what they were doing and I tended to stay clear of them, but most were fishy.

    The only bad thing is that the pots can sometimes be quite reckless so it wouldn't be too hard to get most to all of your money in good and get sucked out on, so I definitely would like a bigger "live" bankroll to play regularly, so I'll keep plugging away @ my home games and only take periodic shots.

    Btw, what are good rake rates for live games? Aztra has 10% up to $5 max. Is that normal and good?
    - Jason

  14. #14
    Donachello's Avatar
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    From my short experience with live 1/2 cash the games are, like you said, quite soft but also somewhat intimidating if you are not rolled. Often times you'll get a PFR to 8-10 dollars and have almost the entire ring call. You can make a pretty decent hourly wage even by just stealing blind and flops with cbets but most of the live players I have tangled with love to chase those straight and flush draws so you gotta take that into account.
    [00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
    [00:30] <DC> daven
    [00:30] <DC> on my hand?
    [00:30] <daven> yep
    [00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
    [00:30] <daven> nice reason
    [00:30] <daven> no further questions
    [00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

    Problem officer...?
  15. #15
    I am completing a year of live limit, mostly 8/16, 15/30, and 20/40, and excluding the table share of a jackpot that I won, I have played about 540 hours (I play a couple of hours a day several days a week) and I made about $11,800. So that's just over $20 an hour.

    As for variance, I lost $4,000 in a week once and $2,000 in a day three times.

    Assuming 40 hands dealt an hour and that the average stakes was probably around 12/24, this works out to about 496BB over 21,600 hands, or 2.29BB/100, which isn't much different than I usually run online (though I've hit a really bad patch lately online).
  16. #16
    I recommend Checkyourbets.com for an easy way to track your sessions/hours/wins/losses. It's great to see things in black and white while taking notes. This has helped me greatly so far in picking the best times and places for me to optimize my play.

    Since I've started keeping track I'm at 352.8 hours/36 sessions playing almost exclusively on the weekends at $1/$2 and $1/$3 NL (with a few sessions of $2/$3 and $2/$5). I'm winning 12.5 Big Blinds/hour or $33.45/hr for a total of $11,802.

    I believe this rate is very sustainable at this level (low stakes NL) for anyone who takes the game seriously and works on putting themselves in good spots against bad players. I've actually had a few downswings but have been able to bounce back by just regrouping and focusing on the basics from time-to-time, and avoiding the lure to "gambol it up" when tired/drunk.

    I'm always trying to figure out when is a good time to move up stakes and would be interested to read any winrates from regular $2/5NL and $5/$10NL players.
  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by LawDude
    Assuming 40 hands dealt an hour and that the average stakes was probably around 12/24, this works out to about 496BB over 21,600 hands, or 2.29BB/100, which isn't much different than I usually run online (though I've hit a really bad patch lately online).
    Maybe limit is a little faster than NL, but I've always heard you're lucky if you get 30 hands per hour dealt in a live game. Some people say 20. If it takes the dealer an average of 30 seconds to fool with the deck and deal, and each hand takes an average of 90 sec, then you're at 30 hands/hour. That's a stretch at my casino (some people routinely take 30 sec to fold a hand!), so I'd probably lean more towards 20-25 hands/hour.

    So, if you change your formula to 25 hands/hour, you're running at 3.67 BB/hour.
  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by NutsDeep
    Quote Originally Posted by LawDude
    Assuming 40 hands dealt an hour and that the average stakes was probably around 12/24, this works out to about 496BB over 21,600 hands, or 2.29BB/100, which isn't much different than I usually run online (though I've hit a really bad patch lately online).
    Maybe limit is a little faster than NL, but I've always heard you're lucky if you get 30 hands per hour dealt in a live game. Some people say 20. If it takes the dealer an average of 30 seconds to fool with the deck and deal, and each hand takes an average of 90 sec, then you're at 30 hands/hour. That's a stretch at my casino (some people routinely take 30 sec to fold a hand!), so I'd probably lean more towards 20-25 hands/hour.

    So, if you change your formula to 25 hands/hour, you're running at 3.67 BB/hour.
    Having played enough live no limit as well as limit, I can tell you that limit is quite a bit faster than no limit. Not only does it take more time for players to bet because they have to size them, but there are far more "staredowns" in no limit.
  19. #19
    ChezJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LawDude
    Not only does it take more time for players to bet because they have to size them, but there are far more "staredowns" in no limit.
    not to mention the damn side pots

    despite the rake, i used to pull 5-8 bb/hr playing 2/4 LHE live, about the same as what i made online at 0.50/1.00 in the good ole days of partypoker.

    ChezJ
  20. #20
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    Its not the one or two sessions its the long hall. We had a brutal first week of Feb. Today it turned around and cashed 1200.00 in 4 hours of play. If yo keep records you will be amazed at how much money you spend on poker. I was
  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by baudib View Post
    I just figured out my win rate for live sessions over the past year is 55 BBs per hour, playing 1/2 cash in home games. I don't think this is anything remotely sustainable, as the sample size is only 16 sessions, but the only losing sessions I've had were the result of losing 200+ bb pots on 2-4 outers on the river.

    The remarkable thing is that I'm such a suckass cash player online. Game selection is crucial, obviously and I've figured out a couple things I do better live than online, and they're obviously about reads:

    1. I can pick better spots to bluff live than online...very few people can disguise the fact that they have absolutely no intention of putting another chip in the middle.
    2. I can make good laydowns easier live than online.

    i'm pretty sure that the caliber of play in these games is something like .25/.50 online, and I should probably play more of them.
    Just wanted to ask, 'cause you were apparently making an absolute killing at this point - are you still making 55 bb/hr? Congrats on finding such a profitable game, rather jealous! What kind of home games are these? What types of people come to play?

    At the casino here in Berlin I've running at about 25bb/hour over 4 evening sessions (about 15 hours total) playing what I feel is about the best poker I've ever played. If I can sustain this rate I'd be rather happy with myself. I keep surprising myself by being able to guess the exact hand (more or less) my opponents have, whether I'm in the hand or not! Sometimes I feel like these casino guys might as well be playing with their cards face up...
  22. #22

    Default Atlantic City Win Rate

    It all depends on table selection. If you have good table selection and are a good but limited player $15. On the high end I would say $25. These averages include losses and there are loses. I have been playing in Atlantic City for year. During the past year I had 1 losing month while playing about 30 hours a week. Last year I averages $17 and hour and this year so far $21.

    Scott
    Last edited by jyms; 03-24-2010 at 10:28 AM.
  23. #23

    Default The $1 - $3 plays larger than $1 - $2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jason View Post
    I didn't want to hijack the other thread, but I too have often wondered what the hourly possibilities are with live games. The rake structure is supposed to be really bad @ the lower games like $1/$2 live, but the play is also supposed to be especially horrible, too. I think it's largely dependent on the location, number of games, players, and the like. For whatever it's worth, since I started playing poker again last December, I've been to the casino twice and both times bought in for the full $200 and cashed out $401 and $347 respectively. I probably played 3 hours each session for a total of 6 hours which is about $58 an hour. Obviously that's a pretty low sample and nothing spectacular happened in that time - 1 or 2 nice pots, not a lot of great starting hands or bad beats. I suspect that kind of win-rate is not sustainable long term. It's just a guess, but I'd say maybe $20 to $30 an hour is possible for your typical good, winning player in a live $1/$2 - the kind of player who can routinely win $25NL and higher online.

    If anyone has kept good records of live play hours played, profit made, and win-rates of the lowest stakes, I'd be interested to know what they've found. There's a casino about an hour and 45 minutes away from me that has $1/$3 NL. I haven't been there yet but I'm very interested to see the quality of play and possibilities there. Anyone have the skinny on the Evansville, IN Aztar Casino games? I have noticed in home games I can ON AVERAGE usually win a buy-in a night or a buy-in every 6 hours. We probably play 20 hands an hour, so that's about 83bb/100 or 41.5ptbb/100.
    There is one 1-3 game in Atlantic City at Bally's. There game plays quite larger than $1 - $2. An open to $15 is not unusual and that is eneogh to get large pots started with a few callers.

    Scott
    Last edited by jyms; 03-24-2010 at 10:27 AM.
  24. #24
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    Thumbs up avg live play 184hrs this year

    My live stats so far this year playing recreationally:

    184 hours (72 in AC, 112 in home games)
    $4,262 net gains
    $23/hour
    $137/session
    cashed + in 22/31 sessions

    .50NL $50 (4h) $12/h
    .50/1.00NL $47 (17h) $2/h
    1/2NL $2,128 (98h) $21/h
    1/3NL $2,127 (64h) $33/h
    5/5NL -$90 (3h) -$30/h

    www(dot)facebook.com/photo.php?pid=31430616&l=ecf8a191f4&id=1270539708]
  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by stinger View Post
    I think its impossible to win any money at 3-6 Limit so stay away from that game. The players see every hand to the river and the suck outs are horrific.
    sounds ideal, just play solid starting hands and wait for show down value to take over!!!
  26. #26
    I used to play MTT online for 2 years, then I got bored with keeping home behind my screen so I started playing live cash game;
    I now play on 2-2€ tables since march 2010 (2,5 years)

    The level is low, I am clearly among the best players, but the rake in my country is huuuuuge (4€/hour + 8€/pot)

    In those conditions, I win at average 2000 - 2500€ a month
    Making more profits on those tables with such a rake is very hard.

    I don't track my exact played hours/ winrate for a long time, but thus far, I tracked 650 hours and have a hourly win rate of 18€, which means about 30-36bb/100. My real winrate is probably a (very) little bit lower, I'd say about 15€/hour

    Average rake is 16€ / hour / player, and as I play aggressive, I pay more rake than the average players.. thus you an figure how hard the rake is...

    I still make mistakes, sometimes -hopefully quite rarely- go on tilt, and have a lot of leaks / weaknesses AND most of the casinos apply a lower rake, so I think it is possible to have a 25€/hour win rate on 1-2 (2-2) tables.

    Thibault.

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