Paying off when the Price is just too good?

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03-19-2012, 02:54 PM
Dee Generate

Paying off when the Price is just too good?

$1-2 NL, I'm sitting on about $350, Villain has about $300

Villain (mostly ABC old guy) opens UTG at a 9-handed table. 2 callers and I call from the BB with 33. Flop is KK3. I check, Villain leads for about 1/2 pot, folds back to me. I decide to flat (reason being: if he has AA or a big King, I'll get more/all later but if he has a middle pair or air, I'm losing him with any raise.)

Turn is a blank baby. For the reasons mentioned above, I check planning a CR and stacking him if he has AA or AK, but he doesn't comply and checks behind. I mostly take the kings out of his range and now have him on mid-pairs and big aces looking for a cheap showdown.

River is a Q. I lead for value and he quickly min-raises me. I'm getting almost 5:1 on the call, but he's not doing that with much that I can beat. AA mostly calls, JJ and below may call, but won't raise. I would have heard from a King on the turn, so even though I'm 90%+ convinced he has QQ, I can't find a fold for that price. I grimace and toss in the call.

As it played out (assuming I'm missing a part of his range) is nearly 5:1 enough to call there? 2nd question: should I have raised/led on the flop/turn? Replaying it in my head later, free cards only kill me, and don't leave much room for him to improve to 2nd best, but I can get him to bluff a lot on the turn.

Thanks!
03-19-2012, 05:17 PM
Chusko

Has this guy quickly min-raised before? Any history here is useful.

I really don't like checking the turn, AA/QQ probably won't bet again since he's WA/WB, but he might call and you're certainly inducing a raise from AK. You kinda asked for this by checking the turn.

If you think this guy's range is {KK, QQ} then no amount of odds is good enough to call. If there's any chance at all he's doing this as a bluff then frown/call.
03-19-2012, 06:42 PM
drmcboy

he can def have Kx esp with no FD out, call.

I don't think ABC guy bluffs turn much so I'd just raise flop
03-19-2012, 08:52 PM
d0zer

I think call flop lead turn is kinda cool here
03-19-2012, 09:03 PM
KoRnholio

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dee Generate

I'm 90%+ convinced he has QQ

5:1 enough to call there?

You can only profitably call here with those odds if you are <83% sure he has you beat.

I have a tough time folding in this spot. Seems like a pretty decent chance he has JT or KJ here.
03-19-2012, 10:20 PM
baudib

Quote:

Originally Posted by d0zer

I think call flop lead turn is kinda cool here

This
03-21-2012, 08:07 PM
acg123

Abc guy prolly min. Raises with Kx im actually calling fairly quickly in this spot on average.i think he assumes when u check call flop, check turn and lead for thin value on river he min raises with alot of Kx hands it looks to him like u have a mid pair type hand, maybe even a Q. I mean your thinking along the lines of his range only I think you need to think about what YOUR percieved range is in this spot. You played it fairly weak imo and thats how your range looks to villian.