Originally Posted by
Vi-Zer0Skill
I didn't think it was a clear -EV call on the flop until I looked at the numbers in pokerstove:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
43,560 games 0.001 secs 43,560,000 games/sec
Board: Td Kh Th
Dead:
equity win
Hand 0: 28.028% { QdJd }
Hand 1: 71.972% { ATs, Ah8h, KJs+, QTs, Qh9h, JTs, Jh9h, Jh8h, T9s, ATo, KJo+, QTo, JTo }
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villain is a fish which makes me want to call the flop c/r a lot more -- implied odds are higher plus he is repping a strong range, also good for your IO. however, not all of your straight outs versus his c/r range are clean (his T9, AT combos make full houses when you make your hand). based on his c/r size he is very likely barreling the turn which means you will have to call another bet to see the river card.
if the flop were 585dxx and you had 67dd, calling would be closer to neutral EV but is probably still -EV. this is mostly because you are less worried about reverse implied odds (10 combos of 54s/99 versus 24 combos of T9/AT in the previous hand).
it's okay to make -EV plays as long as you make a larger +EV play on a future street. versus bad players this means making slightly -EV flop floats can be much better than folding because they will make major mistakes on the turn and river.