Originally Posted by
Warpe
Insider,
Even if what you say is true, if it's rigged equally against all players, is it still rigged?
Yes - that's exactly the point - it's rigged against all players so that no one can see a clear pattern -
it's equally rigged against all players because only one stands to benefit - the dealer.
I'd like to add the following taken from another forum - soory for the long post but it's worth a read
* The Argument FOR Online Abuse *
The shame of this whole deal is that the online poker sites could, if they wanted, end all of this speculation. However, they have elected not to do this. They have the power, if they really wanted, to put an end to any speculation about the legitimacy of the online gaming experience. And let’s be very honest – most of the top B&M players that I know are skeptical of the online poker sites and will not play their with their own money. This includes some of the very best players around. These are not people who are being paid to shill for online sites (and even those do not play with their own money – they play their minimum appearance tourneys with house money).
I think I have heard all of the arguments AGAINST online rigging. There are basically 8 that I count. Let’s list them and review them. Here they are – the 8 reasons people give you why online poker isn’t rigged – let’s list them and take a critical look at them and see which of them, if any, hold any water. Basically, here’s the list:
1) The Loser
2) Mission Impossible
3) The Public Company
4) Nothing to be Gained
5) So Much to Lose
6) The Black Box
7) More Hands = More Goofy Shit
8) The Leap of Faith
Of these, as you will see, after putting these under a microscope, only #8 holds any water.
1) THE LOSER – it goes something like this: “you’re just a sore loser and if you were winning you wouldn’t say this.” Frankly, I’m not, but really it doesn’t really make any difference. I have quite a few final table appearances to my credit in $1,000 or higher buy-in national/international events including WPT and WSOP. My total deposits to online poker rooms are less than 1/1,000,000 of my net worth, so even if I lost every single hand, it would be irrelevant. Just because I am willing to take a look at it or have a skeptical outlook, doesn’t mean I’m a loser.
2) MISSION IMPOSSIBLE – this defense tries to convince you that fixing a poker program would be the equivalent of splitting atoms. This is a poker program – we aren’t enriching uranium! I’m not a computer programmer, but I know quite a few, including a couple who specialize in computer games. They assure me that making something happen in a poker program is basically programming 101. If they wanted 3-8 off to beat AA every time, this would be easily done in the context of a program without adjusting the output of a random number generator.
3) THE PUBLIC COMPANY – this is a relatively new one that seems to have popped up as though it has been fed to the masses like some kind of mantra. It ranks very high up on the laugh meter. The way this goes is that by telling you that the poker site is owned by or run by, or somehow connected to a publicly traded company in England or somewhere on some stock exchange, that this somehow is some indicia of honesty. Somehow we are supposed to believe that association with a publicly traded company means there is less chance of dishonesty. Unless you’ve been living in a cave for the last 20 years or are too young to know the difference, you should understand that having something to do with a public company doesn’t mean anything. In fact, the argument can be made that it is more likely to be a sham, rather than less. Does the word ENRON ring a bell? Publicly traded. Auditors said everything was okay. Massive fraud. The whole company was a huge fraud. How about Fannie Mae? This is actually a pseudo-governmental agency which trades as a publicly traded company. 4 years of bogus financial statements, all okayed by the auditors. More fraud. I could go on and on with a litany of literally thousands of public companies who have either been convicted of fraud or who have settled before being convicted. Case closed
4) NOTHING TO BE GAINED – here’s some of the meat of the anti-rig arguments. Basically, they whine something like “why would they ever want to do that? What would they ever have to gain by doing it?” Ummmmm. Let me take one guess. Ummmmm….. MORE MONEY? Actually, they have nothing to gain by determining outcomes ahead of time, and from what I hear, they don’t. But they do have much to gain from doing one thing. Lets for the sake of simplicity divide players into 2 groups. Winners and losers. Money flows from the hands of the weak to the hands of the strong. It doesn’t do this in a straight line. And it doesn’t go directly from the weakest to the strongest. It goes in a chain much like the food chain in an ocean. It goes in and out like the tide, moving in one direction, then another, then back.. and so on and so on, like the tide. Then it moves from one level to the next that way, and from that level to the next higher level in that same way. The online casinos know the same thing that land based casinos know with their slots. It is this: in any exchange among groups, the slower the rate of loss, the greater the chance that they will get additional fresh money put into the system when someone taps out. Same with slots. They’ve tested it. They can have machines that have the same exact payout %. One is a high-volatility machine (less number of pays, average pay higher) and the other are low-volatility machines which give lesser payouts, but more frequently. The end result is the same because the payout % for a machine is fixed in the factory. The players who play the lower volatility machine are much more likely to put more money in because they feel like they have gotten more play for their money. It’s the same with online poker. The sites know that if they can slow up the rate of loss, these same players will eventually lose, but they will be ensuring a much higher rate of additional deposits. How do they do this? By creating situations where the chances of various hands winning versus each other are much closer to 50-50 then the true odds should be. That’s all. It’s that simple. Nothing with marking your account after you withdraw or targeting you. No conspiracy. No flops that are arranged in order to increase the rake. No nothing. The fish like it, cuz they loser slower. The sharks like it cuz it means ultimately that more fresh money is going to come into the system and work it’s way up the food chain. So, when all is said and done, they have plenty to gain from “adjusting” the process to suit their needs.
5) SO MUCH TO LOSE – goes like this. “Why would they risk their business by doing this? Why would they risk losing customers? They have so much to lose. Why kill the golden goose?” Etc. Well, really what do they have to lose. Customers? I think not. After all, how many customers did the cigarette companies lose when they decided to print on the side of the packs “hey dooshbag – thanks for paying us for killing you!”? Answer – none. Not a single person on the whole planet every stopped smoking because of the death warning on the pack. Why not? Because the vast majority of their customers didn’t have a choice – THEY WERE ADICTED TO THE PRODUCT. And I know whoever you are that is reading this, I’m sure I’m not talking to you – I’m talking to some other guy. The same goes for online poker players. The vast majorities of them are to some degree, addicted and will not stop until they lose all their money and run out of credit. Gambling is an addiction. The online sites know this, and so they know that basically you aren’t going anywhere because YOU’RE HOOKED (not you, the other guy next to you).
What else do they have to lose? Nothing. You can’t sue them. You have no recourse whatsoever. They are completely unregulated and report to nobody and can do whatever they please. So basically, they have NO DOWNSIDE to doing anything that they feel increases their business.
6) THE BLACK BOX – different variations of this. One aspect of this is that “the random number generator has been certified by some accounting firm.” Bullshit. Double Bullshit and MORE BULLSHIT. There are no generally accepted accounting standards for measuring random number generators. Also, as we have learned unfortunately in the world of corporate audits – the fact that a public accounting firm says its okay doesn’t mean shit. Also, just because the random number generator is working right, it does not mean that the entire gaming engine is on the level. The RNG is only one part of a much larger program. It’s presentation of cards to the tables and related matters that count. There were several very notable examples in the world of computer backgammon where a site which published its dice stats showing that the RNG was good – but evidence was presented indicating that allocation of dice to tables was flawed.
The other black box aspect is that “well, in a casino you can see the cards so you don’t blame the cards – just because it’s a computer, you are complaining that it’s rigged.’ There’s a lot of truth to this. There really is nothing you can say directly against this because what they are describing is basic human nature – not wanting to take responsibility and finding a scapegoat. But I think this is where the online sites let the cat out of the bag and show that they have no desire or intention of squelching the skeptics, perhaps because they cannot. The simple solution here is to allow your entire gaming engine top to bottom examined and certified by a completely independent outside authority ( not your own self-created paid dues-club either). There are a small number of sites who have done this. Please note that just because it was done once doesn’t mean that they couldn’t have changed the programming later, but at least they had something like that done at some time, and we have to give those sites at least the benefit of some doubt. After all, what are they supposed to do, have their entire program audited every day? That would be akin to asking a baseball player to pee into a bottle before every at bat. But the vast majority of the well known poker sites have NOT completed such a procedure at any time and, from what I hear, have no interest in doing so. A few started such a process, but aborted. Hmmmm. It would appear that if squelching the skeptics was as easy as this, why wouldn’t the sites all gladly line up to do it? Do they have something to hide? Sounds like they are doing the cyber equivalent of “taking the fifth”. What goes through your mind when you hear someone say “I refuse to testify on the grounds that I might incriminate myself!”? I know what goes through my mind when I hear that – GUILTY, that’s what!
And all this nonsense about making online poker legal and regulated?? Whose idea is this? Not the poker sites, that for sure. None of them have any interest whatsoever in having their industry regulated. Among the reasons why is clearly this topic. Having online poker regulated would in fact force them to have legit games. If you are old enough to remember the pre-corporate Vegas or know much about the history of the town, then you know that there was indeed a time when the place was run by guys like Don Corleone and illegitimate games were quite common. Of course today, the city is regulated and all the machines, table games, etc all have to be on the up and up. The online poker world is still like Vegas in the 50’s and 60’s. They have NO DESIRE to change this unless they are absolutely forced to.
You know all these letters that people are being encouraged to write to your senators and congressmen? These letters propose that they make online poker legal and regulate it like other industries? Personally, regardless of what side of the political isle you reside on, I encourage you to write your senators and congressmen. But if you are going to do it, do it about something important. Might I suggest topics such as illegal immigration and border security, terrorism, global warming and alternative energy, the war in Iraq. But please don’t bother them with online dooshbag poker, okay? They should be spending their time and my tax dollars on something important. But I digress. Where was I? Oh yeah, the letters. Ya notice who is encouraging us to write these letters asking for regulation of the online poker? The dooshbags at Pocket Fives . com, that’s who. Did you get any letter from Ultimate Bet asking you to write your congressmen asking for regulation?? Did you get one from Pokerstars? How bout Full Tilt? Paradise? Not me. I didn’t receive a single request from any of those sites encouraging me to lobby on behalf of online poker for regulation. Why the hell not? I mean, you would think that if the sites actually wanted that, they have all our email addresses – you would think that if they wanted that outcome, they would be encouraging us directly. Sound strange that they don’t seem that interested in the idea?? Sure does. Let me suggest that perhaps… just perhaps… you aren’t hearing from them BECAUSE THEY DON’T FRIGGIN WANT IT because they don’t want to be forced to change their programming and run completely legit games. Just some food for thought.
7) MORE HANDS = MORE GOOFY SHIT – this is the canned nonsense that you get from the girl at customer service when you send an email like one of the following:
Dear Customer Support: Something appears to be wrong. We just played 9 hands on our table and in all 9 hands, we had someone with AA and KK for 9 straight hands. Are you sure this is right?”
Or,
Dear Customer Support: Attached is a transcript of hand #645362836453829623 in NL holdem. As you can see, the starting cards for the players were AA, AK, AK, KK, QQ, QQ, JJ & JJ. I’ve been playing poker in casinos since 1981 and I’ve never seen this before. Are you sure this is okay??
Or,
Dear Customer Support: I’ve been playing at this table for 15 minutes. We just played 13 straight hands where a 4-flush came up on the board. Is this normal?
Or,
Dear Customer Support: I’ve been playing at your sight for over a month now. I’ve flopped quads 4 times and lost all 4 hands. Can you explain this?
Usually, you get this canned response saying that because you are seeing more hands and there are more people calling, these are expected. Lobotomy anyone???
8) LEAP OF FAITH – I guess “Some Dude” is on target here. In the end, this is what it’s all about. It’s all what you think it is.
Here’s how I see it. It appears that there is more than ample motive for them to run an “enhanced” game. All of the common retorts that they use to defend and pooh-pooh naysayers are easily shot down. In the face of such possibilities, the ones with the power to prove the legitimacy refuse to take those steps so, if you want to belief in the legitimacy of online poker rooms, you are left with one reason and one reason only – the leap of faith. “Trust us”