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ensign_lee
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06-11-2005, 01:50 AM
Post subject: How to read odds?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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I know that in blackjack, if you play using the perfect strategy given x set of conditions, house edge will be like 50.433% or something like that. i understand when odds are given to me like that. It means that the house has a statistical advantage over the player, but only by a really small amount (the .433%)
However, I don't understand what casinos are talking about whenever they say that their slots or their video poker games have a "99.46%" return. For video poker, you usually have to follow a set standard, kind of like you do for blackjack, to achieve that return, but yeah.
I don't understand exactly what that return means, though.
For instance, for that percentage stated above, does that mean tha that the house advantage is .54% (100-99.46) ? Because if that's so, then that would put it about par with blackjack, then, right?
I'm so confused...  ANd if you'r ewondering why I'm asking this, it's because I'm investingating PartyBingo and seeing if it's worth whoring. Thanks for the help, guys!
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Bmxicle
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 947
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uhhh i'm pretty sure that black jack would be a 99.567% return on your money. Basically for video poker/slots they are saying that they will give you back 99.46% of your money, or they will take 0.54% of your money (over the long term). So that means the house edge would be 0.54% in the example stated above.
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ensign_lee
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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Yeah, that's what my line of logic was, but I wasn't sure if that was correct. I always thought that video poker took a bigger "chunk" of probability, but maybe I was wrong? Anybody else?
Thanks for the reply, by the way BMXicle
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Gatlin Dan
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Wild Bill's Backyard
Posts: 504
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The return on video poker is if you play 'perfect poker'. The house makes the majority of their money just like we do. They count on 'imperfect players' to make the majority of their winning. It all depends on the game and the payout structure of course, but they know that the majority of people will not make the most +EV play everytime the play a hand of video poker.
As for the slots. You can't really expect the return advertised. It's holding money back for the jackpots. Without hitting a jackpot, you will always get a far worse return. The person who hit the JP will (presumably) get a far higher return on their investment. It's more or less the figure of all the hands ever played in the machine. The few hands that you play on the slot machine (even if you sat down and play several days straight) are too small of a sample size to determine the actual return percentage on a machine. In that respect it's very similar to figuring out the EV of any given starting hand in HE. If you play long enough, you may be able to see a + or - EV, but can never really tell the true EV. A slot machine has only a fixed number of variables. Certain combinations win and certain combinations lose, all in various amounts. Math geeks and stuff will tell you that you can figure a slot's true return percentage given enough time and revolutions of the wheel. This is true, but for all practical purposes, no one person will play the same machine long enough to see all the variations. Even if you sat down and intended to do so, you could only sit for so long before the bedsores would get to you would have to get up to stretch the muscles in your ass that have tightened up and atrophed. That's when the casino is likely to move the machine to a different location and replace it with another one and all your trials are for naught.
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