|
Zapped
|
02-10-2005, 02:39 PM
Post subject: Cards uniformly distributed yet still fixed?
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Austin, TX, USA
Posts: 2
|
|
As a rebuttal to the notion that online poker is fixed, online gambling sites assert that their card shuffling algorithms have passed mathematical test for randomness. I wouldn't doubt that if we reviewed a sizeable sample of hands, we would indeed find that every card appears an equal number of times across the large sample, but that does not guarantee that a site is legit.
Let's say that after millions of legitimate, random deals, a smart person at an online site begins to datamine. He observes that certain patterns generate more action than other patterns - a couple of players with AA and KK, and a flop of AKx for example. Mr. Smart Person realizes that more action equals more rake equals more profits, but any tinkering that results in an overall non-random shuffle could jeopardize the entire operation.
Mr. Smart Person then realizes that he can create an algorithm to deal those high-action "profiles" but make sure that the cards balance out to uniformity in subsequent deals. If he wants to deal AA, KK, and JJ to a ring of 9 players in one hand, he just deals fewer of them in subsequent hands. But he also realizes there are ways to generate a high-action profile in those subsequent hands even with lower-ranked cards.
Implementation of this kind of algorithm would explain the very unusual bad beats that occur with amazing frequency in online play. The overall card frequency would still appear uniform - although technically not random. It seems to me that the temptation to implement such a scheme would be so great that I can't imagine online sites would play "fair" unless there is a way to prove statistically that this is happening - to "out" the crooked sites.
So is this what's happening, or is my theory a crock?
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
LeFou
|
|
02-10-2005, 02:45 PM
Post subject: Re: Cards uniformly distributed yet still fixed?
|
#2 (permalink)
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 2,361
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Zapped
So is this what's happening, or is my theory a crock?
|
This is definitely what is happening. And -- as usual -- I have proof
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=4635
|
|
|
|
stevedonel
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Vegas
Posts: 617
|
|
Wow, what a first post!! You are truly a gaming genius! How were you able to come up with this ever so original theory?
I really think we need an emoticon with a tin-foil hat.
|
|
Is that guy still part of the forum??
|
|
Zapped
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Austin, TX, USA
Posts: 2
|
|
Ouch. Even though I've been lurking here for a while I didn't know that the notion of "profiled" deals to increase rake was a worn-out topic. Apologies.
So now that I've humbly apologized, could you explain why such a strategy won't work, or would be easily detected? If typing is too tiring, a link to an well-reasoned rebuttal would be great. I'd certainly like to know that online gaming wasn't rigged.
|
|
|
|
Corey
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Oklahoma City, OK
Posts: 1,349
|
|
Zapped;
welcome to get flamed by everyone here.
First of all your first post being that poker is rigged isnt welcome. That makes some suspension stuff.
Second of all; good luck with what you do I would advise to quit playing poker if you do bacuase of course you think its rigged.
|
Corey
|
|
UG
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,855
|
|
Man I had never ever thought of that before that is crazy I'm going to quit playing poker now because since it's obviously rigged as you've shown by your enormous amount of evidence there is just no reason why I should play any longer from here on through forever thank you so much you've shown me the light.
[/sarcasm]
|
|
|
|
xxDFOCxx
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Canada
Posts: 83
|
|
Also, the fact with Online Poker is we play more often and also we do see a lot more hands thant in Live game.
On SuperBowl day, we played Holdem for about 3 hrs and it happend three time that 3 player had pocket pairs, QQvsQQvs77, AAvsJJvsTT, KKvsJJvs99, and the last two hit on flop.
Plus, with the number of loose players and fish and beginners, there is a lot of action almost all the time, except that you're maybe not in it because you play only good hands.
Just for fun, dealt the same number of hands LIVE while you play Online poker and compare.
|
|
|
|
whileone
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 306
|
|
Quote:
|
Mr. Smart Person then realizes that he can create an algorithm to deal those high-action "profiles" but make sure that the cards balance out to uniformity in subsequent deals.
|
That’s the real trick right there isn’t it. If you use up an AA vs KK deal, you have to delete one from somewhere else, or the statistics will be all screwed up. So Mr. Smart Person hasn’t generated any more action. You answered your own question right there. By balancing out the uniformity, there can be no extra action.
Quote:
|
Implementation of this kind of algorithm would explain the very unusual bad beats that occur with amazing frequency in online play.
|
If they have high frequency they are not unusual. I think that was just poor wording on your part, but I don’t think you understand ‘random’, and all of the implications of random. If you play enough hands you will get AA 10 times in a row. when you only see 30 hands an hour (maybe), getting to see 200 in an hour will change your perspective.
People are pattern matchers, if your awareness was slowed down or you watched 200 hands in an hour of live play you would see the same proportion of bad beats.
Actualy I'm much more suspicous of some guy's shuffle, that the shuffle generated by pokerstars. Nobody certifies the randomness of a shuffle in a casino or a home game.
|
|
|
|
LeFou
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 2,361
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Zapped
So now that I've humbly apologized, could you explain why such a strategy won't work, or would be easily detected?
|
Because anyone analyzing the deals with any sense would look not just at the raw number-of-times a king of spades came out, or a KK, or whatever, but whether there is anything unusual that's common to the times they DO come out.
i.e. if (assuming ten hands/table) AA comes out 4.5% of the time like it should, and elementary stat analyst would say "it's all good", but a real one would look. But if, in that 4.5% of hands, there is a KK dealt significantly more than 4.5% of the time, it'd be noticeable.
That's for starters. Also sorry 'bout some of the hostility. 99% of people who even USE the word "rigged" are whiny bitches that can't play and are looking for someone to blame. I don't think that's you, since you're being more or less hypothetical
|
|
|
|
ChezJ
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 1,456
|
|
Last night I was playing and caught almost no playable hands for nearly 3 hours. Those that I did play hit humongous hands and yet I still got beaten by bigger hands. I flopped a set with 33 and filled up, only to lose to a guy who flopped a set with JJ. I hit a straight on the river, only to lose to a guy who played T6s and caught a flush. I flopped top two pair with QTs but lost to a straight. There were three-flushes and four-flushes on half the boards. There were two pairs on the board and even a flush on the board. Some guy flopped a full house and it turned into quads. The action was ridiculous!! And yet I blew out $40 without winning a single pot.
The house had to be rigging the game, right? I mean, come on, what are the odds of such insane cards hitting all night? How improbable is it that EVERY HAND I PLAYED was second best?
Oh... wait a second... I just remembered... the house could not possibly have been rigging the game. We were playing at my house with my own KEM cards.
ChezJ
|
|
|
|
a500lbgorilla
|
|
JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
|
|
I didn't read any of the replies past LeFou's becuase I knew what would be said.
In any case, would the "balancing" in subsequent deals have smaller rake on average? So you have a capped rake of 3 bucks then 5 or 6 rakeless hands or .1 raked hands as blind battle?
Why not just do it normally, make a shitload of cash and laugh everytime someone asks you to prove you're legit?
-'rilla
|
Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
06-02-2012, 08:10 PM Merge Network 6.0 Looks to Retain Current Player Base
Linear Mode
