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Asking a question I know the answer to..

  
 
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Laeelin
Old 02-03-2005, 01:23 PM     Post subject: Asking a question I know the answer to.. #1 (permalink)  
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A couple friends are convinced that online poker does not deal a random deck.

They believe that everyone is more likely to get a face card, flush, straight, ect than in a home game.

They feel that home/vegas games see far less flushes, straights, 4 of a kind, ect.

I don’t believe it, but I have no proof...

I believe it just feels that was sometimes because you see so many more hands and there are so many more people that will stay in with something like Q5o that it gives that impression.



1) Anyone know where I can get proof that the hands are random?

2) Is there anywhere on RoyalVagasPoker (where we play at) where they claim the deck is totally random(well, as close as computers can get, and that is basically totally random).


ps: the motivation for the sites to do this would be to increase the average pot size because of the heavier betting when you have something like a flush
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Corey
Old 02-03-2005, 01:26 PM #2 (permalink)  
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http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=4746

I dont think I need to say more.


Actually go to Pokerstars and read there about section they state how the randomize there 'shuffle'

show your friends that link. Oh if they think its rigged tell them to quit poker cuz they probably suck.


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Laeelin
Old 02-03-2005, 01:34 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
show your friends that link. Oh if they think its rigged tell them to quit poker cuz they probably suck.
Just to be clear, they dont think it's rigged AGAINST them, they think it's rigged to increase the quality of the average hand for EVERYONE.

the idea is to increase the rake, not to "make them lose"
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anarres
Old 02-03-2005, 03:26 PM #4 (permalink)  

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anarres
After reading how many people hold these beliefs I tried an experiment....

Last night I played on 4 Pokerstars tables ($0.5/$1). At every table at least 1 person thought the cards were stacked in some way when I asked.

The best part was the first table where I got on really well with 3 of the people there, and 1 who was actually quite good (IMO) swore blind they were stacked to give good early cards. This person has been at PS for a while and they show no signs of wanting to leave, so I find his statement meaningless.
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Old 02-03-2005, 05:32 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Yeah the cards aren't rigged, the reward for the risk the poker site is taking is too small.

And CEOs of poker software companies aren't THAT much of assholes.
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FlyingSaucy
Old 02-03-2005, 06:25 PM #6 (permalink)  
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A simple answer to this can be attained.

If you're not doing so already, record all hand histories, play out at least 20k hands or so. Then look at the starting card distribution. Plot it out in Excel if you must. There's a simple statistical formula that will tell you to what degree of significance the experimental group deviates from the control group (which would be a perfectly even "average" distribution for all hands). I wish I had the knowledge in my head, but I'd have to look up the formula because it's been too long.
Anyone with an intro level college stat class should be able to do this. Heck, maybe even high school. There's no way the casinos could get away with giving more weight to the high cards because it would be simply too easy for anyone to prove beyond a doubt that they are doing it.
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Corey
Old 02-03-2005, 07:05 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingSaucerAttack
A simple answer to this can be attained.

If you're not doing so already, record all hand histories, play out at least 20k hands or so. Then look at the starting card distribution. Plot it out in Excel if you must. There's a simple statistical formula that will tell you to what degree of significance the experimental group deviates from the control group (which would be a perfectly even "average" distribution for all hands). I wish I had the knowledge in my head, but I'd have to look up the formula because it's been too long.
Anyone with an intro level college stat class should be able to do this. Heck, maybe even high school. There's no way the casinos could get away with giving more weight to the high cards because it would be simply too easy for anyone to prove beyond a doubt that they are doing it.
I congradulate you on confusing the fuck out of me.

great job saucy


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Corey
Old 02-03-2005, 07:26 PM #8 (permalink)  
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WTF WAS that for? I am work, trying to get me fired!?


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Ayce
Old 02-03-2005, 09:17 PM #9 (permalink)  
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The poker sites make their money from rake it's a fortune. Consequently they try to keep their games as fair as possible. The cards are as random as they can make them.

In my worst session for cards the best opening hand was 77 over two hundred deals.
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FlyingSaucy
Old 02-03-2005, 10:11 PM #10 (permalink)  
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lol corey... sorry.
Basically, you'd expect to get each card in the deck dealt to you an equal number of times. Say you have:

A - 7083
K - 7079
Q - 7122
J - 7101
T - 7069
9 - 7057
8 - 7091
7 - 7090
6 - 7110
5 - 7105
4 - 7082
3 - 7069
2 - 7093

You'd expect to get the all dealt to you an equal number of times, but since with randomization there is always variance since your sample size is not infinite...
Hence, we need a tool to analyze the difference between these numbers and the expected average, and determine if the difference is just "noise" or if it is beyond an acceptable threshold of what we'd normally consider noise.
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FlyingSaucy
Old 02-03-2005, 10:14 PM #11 (permalink)  
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To clarify, the numbers I posted were just examples of what I thought looked reasonably variant.

If you did this experiment and saw numbers like the following, you'd probably be pretty concerned:

A - 7283
K - 7279
Q - 7192
J - 7211
T - 7169
9 - 7157
8 - 7091
7 - 7090
6 - 7010
5 - 7105
4 - 7082
3 - 7069
2 - 7093


However - it is possible for this, too, to be noise. Statistics gives us the tools to tell how confident we can be that this is a random distribution.


Now, this thread and anyone reading it can just go ahead and die.
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whileone
Old 02-03-2005, 11:54 PM #12 (permalink)  
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i think it might be possible that people at home games can't shuffle worth a damn. and the good cards stick together because people sweat all over them. which would also alter the statistics.
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