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kardmania
Old 06-26-2010, 04:19 AM     Post subject: You make the play #1 (permalink)  
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You make the play

$60 10 man live game played on PokerPro table. 1500 starting chips
Turbo Blinds

Truly card dead but stole where I could but with blinds at $120/60 + $5 ante down to $480 chips but only 4 players remained.

I managed to dodge bullets and slowly started to win a few pots knocking out the 4th place combatant.


Pay out structure $355 for 1st and $155 for 2nd place the balance is house rake.

Opponent chip stacks Player A has 5500 chips, Player B has 4400, and I am sitting with 4100 chips. I offer up a three way chop. Player B accepts the chop and Player A sits silent. Several hands pass when the SB and BB get into the pot for the minimum and the board flops: 9D, 7D, and 5D. Player A pushes all in and Player B calls. Player A turns over 10D and 6D and Player B reveals the JD and QD. No improvement.

Several more hands are played with no significant changes.

These games are typically over in an hour. We are now near the 2 hour mark. Blinds are 1200/ 600 and antes are $100.

Player A is now down to $1800, Player B has $7200, and I am sitting with 6000 chips. I am in the big blind and the best hand I have looked at is AK o/s.

Player A folds and is sitting with $1700 chips, Player B raises $1200 chips and I look down at QQ.

What is the correct play?
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surviva316
Old 06-26-2010, 06:17 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 YouTube - Phil Hellmuth folds QQ with 15 BBs

if hellmuth did it, then you know what to do
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meeloche
Old 06-26-2010, 03:53 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 Please read the forum description before posting. This doesn't belong here....

As for your question if you do anything other than shove you obviously hate money.

{moved from shnl}



 
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kardmania
Old 06-29-2010, 02:35 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Live Play
This was a Live tourney
Not sure where this belongs so please let me know

thanks
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drmcboy
Old 06-30-2010, 04:32 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 i make the plays all in!
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supa
Old 06-30-2010, 10:13 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 shove
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M_Keown
Old 07-02-2010, 09:37 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 You have to push obv...
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ChezJ
Old 07-12-2010, 05:22 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 your description is unclear on several points. let me make sure i understand.

1) you are on the bubble against a 1.5bb shortstack and a 6bb chip leader.
2) the chip leader is in the sb for 600.
3) you are in the bb for 1200 with 4bb left in your stack.
4) you are hu vs the sb, who has min-raised to 2400. he has 4bb left behind.

obviously, your choices are to fold, call, re-raise, or push.

folding would mean keeping 4bb but posting the sb in the next hand. before dismissing this notion as pure craziness, consider that the shortstack will likely go all in on the next hand, since posting the bb will leave him with only 0.5bb. a fold here is -EV in terms of chips but it could be +EV in terms of dollars, since shorty is 2:1 against getting dealt the best cards on the next hand.

calling would mean keeping 3bb behind until the flop. the strategy would be to wait for a safe flop then push or induce a push. this seems very +EV in terms of dollars since sb is highly unlikely to outflop you. if he folds, you become chip leader. if he calls, he's likely to have a worse hand (since you only push a safe flop). if the flop sucks, you check-fold and survive with 3bb.

reraising to 3-4bb will either win the hand preflop, putting you in the chip lead, or induce a call, which is more +EV in terms of chips but probably less +EV in terms of dollars due to the risk of getting crippled and bubbling out.

pushing is likely to win the hand pre-flop, putting you in the chip lead. if you get called, it's +EV in terms of chips, but i do not think it is as +EV in terms of dollars.

in this situation, i think it is more important that you minimize the risk of bubbling out than win the hand. based on that, i would guess the most +EV move in terms of dollars is to flat call the minraise and hope for a good flop. you really need to focus on surviving til the next hand when shorty will be in the bb.

ChezJ
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StarGrinder
Old 07-18-2010, 06:11 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 Shove. Get your money in with the best of it. Play to win, not cash for the min.
 
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paratrooper99
Old 08-04-2010, 02:41 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 Shove is bad move here IMO, optimal SNG strategy is to cash, not to play for first like a tournament. Granted, you are likely way ahead of villians range, but with a short stack of just over 1 bb on bubble, shove here is bad idea. I would flat the call and look for a set to stack him. Fold to any bet if A or K hits or serious betting and wait to take him down heads up when the short stack is gone.
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kardmania
Old 08-15-2010, 07:18 PM     Post subject: My thoughts #11 (permalink)  
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The key advantage of playing live versus playing on the net is the ability to make reads and act on your conclusions.

As stated earlier the raiser’s profile was tight aggressive. His body language told me two things that he was strong but he did not want a call. When I asked him if he wanted a call, he remained silent but his body language reaffirmed my initial read.

I ran thru the possible hands that he might be raising with:

AA, KK I considered possible but dubious under 5%
AK I actually felt that this was a likely possibility probably O/S 20%
AQ, AJ, A10 each 5%’ers along with A rag

JJ, 10 10, 10%er’s
99, 88, 77, J10, 10 9, 5%er’s

After considering these assumptions, the only hand I really needed to fear was the AK race. I thought for a few seconds about the fact that doing nothing should assure me of a cash. However, walking thru the backdoor I usually manage to step in the quicksand. When you let your opportunities escape without benefits the poker lords do have a tendency to slap you back down.

So I shoved.
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oskar
Old 08-15-2010, 08:58 PM #12 (permalink)  
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oskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura about
 This is not as easy as some of you make it out to be. Since I don't know how to use icm properly, I can't answer that without looking it up for myself. This really needs to go to the sng forum.

I would really like to see some proper $EV calculation on this.
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drmcboy
Old 08-15-2010, 09:41 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kardmania View Post
AK probably O/S 20%
did his face look off suit?
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oskar
Old 08-15-2010, 09:57 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 yeah... lol you might want to crop out all the unnecessary information and ridiculous reads and you might have yourself a thread.
I'm still curious about that spot because I never get in it, but it looks interesting. Like what's a good stealing range for the sb, what's a good shoving range, is calling really an option? is b/f really an option for the sb pre?
I guess I know how to approach it, but the whole tournament aspect of it makes my head esplode.
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kardmania
Old 08-16-2010, 03:07 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Some forum members write more than they play and others play more than they write.

Perhaps I need a posting tutor from one of the scholars?

If you play live you do need to know how to make reads. If you rely on the pure mathematics you will be having to go back to your parents for another donation oh sorry stake.
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oskar
Old 08-16-2010, 05:23 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 ok, here's the thang. It doesn't really make sense for you to expect him to have AK 20% of the time and 77-TT, 9T, JT - curious why you would group those - at 5% while there are 16 combos of AK and 56 combos of the other group. Then why would he open 9T and fold AT?
The final conclusion doesn't make any sense either, even given that your reads are right (they are not) because you're not making decisions based on Chip EV at this stage. You're only interested in the $EV value of your options.
I'm bad at explaining this because I don't ever play tournament poker.

Ok, here's an extreme example to explain things: You're one off the bubble in a double-or-nothing. You have 50bb - there is a 100% chance you will double your money if you fold every hand because you have enough chips to blind down for another 45 minutes and the tournament isn't expected to last another five. A 50bb stack opens for 2x to your right He is playing every hand and will stack off with air. You have AA. Your best play is clearly to fold because there is no money in winning this hand. The same concept applies here, only a bit more subtle.
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drmcboy
Old 08-16-2010, 08:58 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 I'd look into that math stuff more, you might be surprised.

Oskar - there are free ICM calcs out there & info in the SNG stickies, just run numbers if you're curious. It probably will take about 10% of the time you wasted in that poo flinging thread about win rates.
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surviva316
Old 08-16-2010, 09:16 PM #18 (permalink)  
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 does drmcboy have a post in this thread that isn't win?
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dneureiter
Old 08-17-2010, 07:38 AM #19 (permalink)  
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 shove shove shove...

I put this into sng wizard. The only mistake is I can't find out how to edit payout beyond 6max 65/35%... obviously 355/155$ pays out way heavier to first than that (almost 70/30). Which makes this even MORE of a shove than sng wiz suggests.

as oscar said your ranges and weighting didn't make any sense so...
I made some up:
I have him opening 44++, A8s+, AT+, KQs
and calling all of it
here is a screenshot


it all depends on the ranges you assign obviously but he would have to be SUPER tight for this to be a fold. like opening 7% and calling 7%. The reason it's worthit is because first is worth so much more than second. If this were a double or nothing it would be a super ez fold.

ez CALL. I take it your got coolered? also regardless of who wins at least you both made the shorty happy

almost 3% edge makes this a call by about 15 real dollars. And again the extra 5% to first as opposed to the 65/35 play a big role in making this even more plus ev. Do you want 20+ ev$? then call.

note:
this is still +ev if he's opening/calling 77++, ATs+, AJo+ but just bearly and that still fails to acct for 65/35 vs 70/30 payouts.

also i thought u could make custom payouts in sng wiz but I'm lazy. I just tried shortly. anyone know how?

 
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dneureiter
Old 08-17-2010, 07:48 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99 View Post
Shove is bad move here IMO, optimal SNG strategy is to cash, not to play for first like a tournament.
NO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by StarGrinder View Post
Shove. Get your money in with the best of it. Play to win, not cash for the min.
NO.



You play to maximize your equity. No you don't want to coinflip with a shorty on the bubble because you want to cash.

Nor do you want to fold AA on the bubble... or QQ very rarely.

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did his face look off suit?
YES. one eye was closed while the other was open. CLEARLY not suited.

 
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Micro2Macro
Old 08-17-2010, 08:26 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Take the follow with a grain of salt; I by no means am an expert in live play nor do I have a large enough sample do gauge my live success so by all means i could be -EV in certain live settings versus players I am describing below:

1. In tournaments they value their tournament life way too much with out and solid justification besides "I can find a better spot" when faced with higher variance situations. I posed a question to a group of mainly live players: going into 500/1000/100 ante w/ 40k stack on day 2 of the main event, if you were to open the btn with QQ to 2.5k and the sb were to jam and shows you AKo, would you call or fold? Surprisingly, the vast majority said they would fold, and I was even berated for considering i would call despite the fact that its pretty clear you are giving up 10k or so in cev by folding. I think this logic can be coupled with a gross over estimation of their abilities and/or edge over the field, even in events as soft as the main event.

2. A blatant lack of understanding of the mathematics behind poker, equity, fold equity, ICM, etc.
A lot of them are overly stubborn with their views, especially ones that have had major success in the past when games were much much softer or without understanding the concept of variance/sample size. I had one guy time and time again point to the fact that he has over a 300% roi in about 60 lifetime live mtts and considered it a big enough sample where his actual roi converged to something close to that. Pretty laughable if you ask me.

3. An over emphasis on "feel" and over confidence in their "feel" game compared to others, couple with a lack of deductive reasoning or logical plan for their actions. Maybe I am totally off on this point and am just lacking in this department due having much less live experience, but I do think that many live players make decisions based on pure intuition rather than logic.
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Micro2Macro
Old 08-17-2010, 08:29 PM #22 (permalink)  
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 dneureiter its nice that you put in the effort to showing OP that jamming here is clearly a trivial play however if you read my last post you will find there is a very high chance he 1. does not even glance over your calculations 2. assumes he just gave everyone a lesson on when to fold QQ and 3. will repeat this mistake in the future due to his tendency to rely on 'feel'.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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