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biondino
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09-13-2005, 03:08 PM
Post subject: Winning and losing vs pot odds
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
Posts: 3,170
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I was thinking a moment ago about a play I made the other night. I was head up against an unusually aggressive £25NL ring player and I made trip 8s on the river. However, the river also made a flush possible. My opponent went all in, and the size of the bet I needed to make made it pretty much EV+ IF I thought I would win in this situation once every three times.
I reckoned my chance of winning was slightly under half and therefore decided to risk it, and, pleasingly, I won the hand.
However, the reason I am bringing this up is because of what would have happened to me psychologically in the event of either a win or a loss. When I make decisions based on pot odds - i.e. I'll make my full house x% of the time so it's worth betting here - I do so without considering the effect that losing my buyin will have on me.
I know as well as anyone else that, if I play correct poker, it doesn't matter in the short term if I lose a hand I should win. But we all know that it often does make a mental difference whether we like it or not, and I reckon that the negative effect on my game when I tilt is much larger than any positive effect when I double up.
So - should this effect my betting decisions? Should I avoid marginally EV+ moves because losing might anger or upset me? I'm posting on the Psychology part of FTR because I know the technical, disinterested idea fine, but I wondered if anyone had any thoughts on the psych aspect.
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pokerfanatic
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
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If you have a set on the turn and you think he has something like a flush or straight you have 10 outs to improve to the best hand... 3.6:1 if you have pot odds bettor then 3.6:1 hit or miss it's still a +EV play to call, given implied odds and assuming he'll pay you off on the river if you improve you probably have the odds to see the river in a situation like that...
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“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,603
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Answering the actual question...
the best answer, of course, is no - play correct +EV poker and you will be teh win.
Where is rilla? I remember a while back him and Spin talking about trying to look for lower variance lines when playing the higher limit games for more or less the same reason - even if you're properly BR'd for a 3/6 game or something, it's still pretty tough to lose 3k in a single day.
Also I think Rondavu makes some posts along the lines of avoiding marginally +EV situations to control the swings a bit.
In a way it's sorta like tourneys - mostly you should make + CHIP EV plays, but everyonce in a while you need to consider + real money EV, and they may conflict.
I think the best answer is - work on being OK with +EV play, but in the mean time it is perfectly valid to tank the 53%-47% edges if it allows you to make more +EV plays overall.
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JunctionA
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11-08-2005, 04:46 PM
Post subject: Making the call
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#4 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 9
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What your post didnt elaborate on was what was the read on the player that went all-in.
Was he a rock, Tagg , weak-tight etc....what was your experience with him in previous hands. And most importantly did he go all-in before you had a chance to act? This can give you a read on whether your call is a cold call or based on your best poker. Looking at EV is a starting point but the "game" is the betting and obtaining a true positive + "psychological EV" is believing you made a good read and a good call. When you play your best by reading the other players and you lose then two benefits occur....you learn more about that player and you learn more about your own weakness on reading the subleties of other players. To lose when you believe you have made the best play is an expensive but healthy lesson...we learn and become better players because we accept that we may have made the wrong decision....to beat yourself up over a bad call is exactly what being on tilt means.....failure is not a pejorative...its an opportunity to learn...
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pokerfanatic
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
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Opps, I didn't really answer complexly sorry...
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“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
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