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What are villains' ranges on the river?

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baudib

12-31-2011, 09:00 AM Post subject: What are villains' ranges on the river?

#1 (permalink)

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This may be tl;dr but I'll give as detailed descriptions of villains as possible because I'm mostly interested in what you think their ranges look like and how I should play the river. I'm not going to say what my hand is because I don't think it's important. Mostly I think I should play almost all of my range the same way on the river with a few notable exceptions. If you disagree feel free to tell me.

It's a live $1/$3 game, 9-handed. I Mississippi (button straddle) for $15. Action starts on blinds and they fold, there are 2 callers in EP and a third caller from HJ.

I check my option (I have a decent/not great hand but have reasons for not raising).

Flop:

(pot$64 ish)
2 checks, HJ bets $25. I call, one fold, one call.

Villains: EP guy who called is young and African-American, mostly terrible, passive. My impression at the time is he's a nit but "nit" is relative in a low-stakes live game where people limp a wider range than you'd expect online. His raising range pre is probably something like JJ+/AK and his 3-bet range is QQ+ but it depends on stack sizes, he'll ship it in with smaller pairs and Ax when he's short (which is often). He starts the hand with about $300. He's not trappy; he plays his whole range face up. He'll call off most of his stack on huge draws instead of just shoving them in and then just c/f when he misses. If he had a good A here he'd just bet it (probably on the smallish side) and if he had a monster he'd bet it big.

HJ: Is Chinese-American, also young. LAG but not a maniac. Can hand-read and generally backs down at serious resistance. Will make big laydowns, probably exploitable laydowns, in spots where live players generally have depolarized ranges. I don't think he really knows theory or plays online at all but has a decent feel for the game, would probably be good if he didn't spew so much pre. One of only 3 people at the table capable of 3-betting light pre. He bets most boards when checked to him. In this spot I strongly suspect he never has a hand because he'd raise most Ax with the dead money and limpers and he'd certainly bet the flop bigger with any kind of hand on this board. He also does not trap at all, he just stabs a lot and when he hits his draw he just bets it and I haven't seen him C-R. Has $450ish.

Important note: HJ thinks of me as a huge nit and probably really weak-tight. I start the hand with almost $400. EP probably has a different read on me but mostly is playing his cards anyway.

Turn:

Both check, I bet $75 into $139, EP calls, HJ says something like, "What did I get myself into?" and calls.

River:

Both check. EP has under $200, HJ around $350 and I just under $300, call it $290 and pot is around $360ish.

I feel like I should shove everything here with the possible exception of big heart combos (KQhh for example, which, incidentally, I probably never have here) because those make it less likely that either one got here with a flush draw.

Playing big pots at small stakes.

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baudib

12-31-2011, 10:02 AM

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I forgot to add: I had tried to bluffraise EP in an earlier hand when I horribly misjudged his river donking range in an orphan pot to be some weak midpair. I made the raise pretty small but he tanked with trips.

Playing big pots at small stakes.

Fnord

01-01-2012, 10:33 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Why is a shove better than $100?

The turn bet pretty much defines your hand as something with showdown value and/or you're setting up a river bluff.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

baudib

01-02-2012, 06:46 AM

#4 (permalink)

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I could see how $100 would be better as a value bet.

Playing big pots at small stakes.

chardrian

01-02-2012, 04:37 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Why is a shove better than $100?

Depends on how much either of them have seen you play rivers and/or how much you think you will be playing them in the future.

I generally make the same size bet here no matter my holdings and my general bet here is to shove - and that's because I want to get value when I have a hand.

As to the actual hand - I don't really like your line unless you actually have a hand here (and by that I mean 2 pair+). Live players remember bluffs more than anything else, so your EP player isn't folding often here unless he has the draw and the draw only.

EP likely has Ax or the flush draw.

HJ's most likely hand is AJ. He likely raises pre with AQ and AK. He also could have a draw, or 2 pair or even trips and be worried about QJ hitting.

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baudib

01-02-2012, 05:44 PM

#6 (permalink)

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I'm really surprised you think HJ is that strong, I think his range is capped at JT/QT. He'd certainly raise most Ax pre and bet larger on this flop and continue betting AJ on the turn.

Playing big pots at small stakes.

chardrian

01-03-2012, 12:58 AM

#7 (permalink)

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I mean JT and QT are definitely part of his range - but the what did I get myself into comment sounds more like AJ to me.

Anyhoo - in general I try to lay off bluff in hands that are super drawy multiway because: 1) it is hard to define your opp's ranges; 2) they hit their draws pretty often; and 3) boards like this lead to more hero calls because your opps will put you on a missed draw and get attached to their hands when the pot gets bloated.

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come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com

baudib

01-03-2012, 01:11 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Alright, that's reasonable. I've gotten such a wide range of responses to this hand I don't know what to make of it.

My thinking is that HJ is folding 100%, he has 0 hands that he'd call a shove (he thinks I'm a nit remember) or even a value bet that he wouldn't bet himself.

I think EP has some weak Ax a decent amount of the time but on this runout I felt his range was even weaker than HJ -- HJ probably had some pair+straight draw that he's giving up whereas EP has draws the vast majority of the time unless he hit something like K9hh.

I also felt that EP's nittiness in calling a "value" raise on the river when he had trips would make him fold even everything worse than Aces up on the river.

While very different players I felt both are pretty straightforward in betting out their good hands and c/c on the turn pretty much defined their ranges as draw heavy.

and yeah, your instincts are right on and I had a bluff here.

Playing big pots at small stakes.

drmcboy

01-03-2012, 08:12 PM

#9 (permalink)

DrButtInski
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surely you can have lots of Ax hands that you should not shove if their ranges are draw heavy.

I think shoving is OK if you can't beat Ax.

would not shove QJ.

no idea why you'd shove two pair if you also want to shove to fold Ax?

re the hand you tried to bluff the trips, I think any time you get raised at 1/3 OTR and you don't have the nuts you should think about it a bit.

Fnord

01-05-2012, 01:58 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

3) boards like this lead to more hero calls because your opps will put you on a missed draw

Great point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

and get attached to their hands when the pot gets bloated.

This can swing both ways. Some folks you can get out of their comfort zone and now that real money is on the line they will tighten up (to a fault.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Fnord

01-05-2012, 02:03 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

and yeah, your instincts are right on and I had a bluff here.

The flop call with players behind tends to discount a bunch of non-draw hands.

My guess is you're raising a lot of your set, 2 pair and big Ace hands on the flop to get this heads-up. You certainly should be calling draws here and probably should call sets, but will probably raise them anyway.

Also, the pre-flop action discounts AK/AQ.

Finally, I think you'll just dump a lot of weaker Ace hands on the flop if you sense any action behind or think HJ has a hand.

That puts a lot of draws in your range going into the Turn and River action.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

baudib

01-05-2012, 04:36 AM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

I'd probably always raise huge draws (KQhh, QJhh, etc.) on the flop. It's possible I misjudged EP again but I feel very confident that HJ almost never has a top pair+ here.

Playing big pots at small stakes.

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