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Weak-tight with second nuts on backdoor flush, lots of talk
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baudib
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11-21-2009, 09:55 PM
Post subject: Weak-tight with second nuts on backdoor flush, lots of talk
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,176
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i've been playing a really cool $1/$2 Friday game with some regulars. good mix of people and styles and very casual/friendly but competitive. you get people making the occasional move but for the most part, they play their hands face up.
We got down to 3 handed last night and this was one of the weirdest hands I've ever played.
Reads: Button is sorta TAGfishy...occasionally limps and almost never limp-calls to a position raise. Her biggest problem is when she has a big hand, she bets pot or over the pot on dry boards, making it really difficult for worse hands to call, so she either wins a small pot or loses a big one, as she's rarely in the pot with worse than big pairs or AQ/AK.
BB is a good player. His first night here, we only had 2 notable hands together. First one he was PFR in EP, I bet flop, check-called turn with J9s on a 9-high board, check-folded on river when A hit and he bet big.
Second hand: I flop top set in a multiway pot on 6 4 3 board, all clubs. I bet $15 into a $20 pot, he check-raises to $40 from the SB. Turn is 9c, we both check, i fill up on the river with 3d, he bets $30, I raise to $80 and quickly folds and flips Kc9c.
On this hand:
Button limps, and I believe she would raise any Ace, any pair and most suited broadways.
I'm in SB with Ks8s. I've probably been playing way too tight most of the night although I'm up $300. Button has $200 and BB has $750. I felt like raising but I wanted to see what BB does - he checked and I do something new -- announced a bet of $4 in the dark. He says he calls in the dark.
Flop is Qd 9h 2s. Button folds.
Turn is Js. I bet $10 and BB calls.
River is 6s. I bet $30 and he plays with his chips a bit and raises to $75.
I get ready to come over the top and stop and think about it, talking aloud, "What can you have here...KT? a set?" He says, "KT would be good hand!" I ask him for a chip count, he obviously has me covered but I wanted to get his reaction. He's practically bursting at the seams with excitement.
He says, "You don't have a flush do you? No, you would called with a flush by now."
Now I'm fairly convinced he has the nuts -- I go back and wonder what he would call in the dark with. He's definitely stolen some pots in position but he doesn't seem spewy at all, note the laydown of a king-high flush on a paired river. He would definitely call in the dark with Ace-high, although I would have expected a preflop raise with that hand.
I just call the raise. Am I being ridiculously weaktight with an unlikely and fairly concealed 2nd nut hand or has he given me enough evidence that he has it?
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
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When someone makes a speech before raising - that's pretty much always a sign of extreme strength. That's why I wouldn't say anything if you think raising is still an option. Not that 3-betting the river isn't a sign of extreme strength by itself.
It's kind of tough... there's ~105 in the pot with 250 behind. If you ship you're not really getting called by worse.
You can't rep a bluff there against a somewhat experienced opponent - because no one ever 3b bluffs the river... And your value range isn't going to be anything that a Q high flush beats. I don't really like 3b/folding either... even if you were deep, he could minraise back and you would hate life.
Folding would be ridiculous. He could just be very confident that his T high flush is good.
I think you should have raised pre given the history with the btn... And I don't see a reason for a bet in the dark... here or ever.
The more interesting hand imo is where you called J9s from the blinds against an EP open and then donk bet a 9 high flop apparently. What was the thought process there?
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by oskar
If you ship you're not really getting called by worse.
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lol, he's folding worse flushes obv. Given his chat I woudl say the likelyhood of him havign the nut flush is pretty low.
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,176
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oskar -- i was up $300 after buying in for $200, so i was $450 behind.
J9s hand -- i was a straddle and he had been raising straddles pretty liberally from any position, which was a good idea given the table dynamics at the time.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,204
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Don't fold.
I like a ship, but understand if you want to just call.
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