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Standard with FD + gutshot?

  
 
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eugmac
Old 02-17-2010, 12:26 PM #1 (permalink)  
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 Addendum:

Ok so I did the math, I was thinking the problem with my raise sizing is that should villain call, then lead for all my chips when a spade or a T doesn't come, I'll be forced to give up my hand: the pot would be 32+ his call of 32 + dead money 12 (this is assuming the guy in the middle folds to my raise) + preflop pot 18 = 94. A turn bet that sets me all in, about 60, would lay me therefore:

154:60, and I need about 3:1 pot odds to make a correct call.
[goes off to do some algebra.]

sooo ok did some review of grade 9 algebra.

I don't know if this is a practical calculation... but I did it anyway. What I worked out was the amount I would have to bet on the flop in order to make it so that even if Villain calls and pushes all in when my draw doensn't come, I'll have pot odds to correctly call to see the river.

y = pot odds expressed as a decimal
x = my raise amount on flop

This is all assuming the case where villian who has me covered calls then pushes the turn, and the loose passive guy with a short stack folds. I'm assuming about 25% equity on the turn, requiring 3:1 pot odds to call the turn. So we want y = .25 or less.

y = cost to call / (pot + cost to call)
y = My remaining stack / ((preflop pot) +(pot after I raise by x and Villain calls) + (My remaining stack that villain bets on turn)+(My remaining stack to call))
y = (92-x) / (18 + 2x + 12 (the dead money from UTG+1) + 2*(92 - x))
y = (92-x) / 214
x = 92-214y
x = 92-214(.25)
x = 38.5

So therefore... by raising to 38.50 instead of 32, I could have prevented a situation where I could be faced with an unprofitable call on the turn. But in practical terms... is this really so crucial to get it exactly right at the table?
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Fnord
Old 02-17-2010, 05:31 PM #2 (permalink)  
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$40 is around what I would raise to.

Since you can't 3-barrel, I think flatting is best as they will likely under-bet the pot and leak information about their hand strength. If you commit on the flop you can't take advantage of either error.
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