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pokerfanatic
Old 12-15-2005, 07:10 PM     Post subject: Something to think about #1 (permalink)  
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Well I got thinking today and that can always be a dangerous thing for anyone... however I got to thinking how important is psychology at low stakes?

Sadly enough I came to the conclusion that unless you are playing the toughest players at the level lets say a 0.5/1 limit FTR game (one game that is surely -EV for everyone in it) THEN psychology becomes much more a use...

I finished reading Psychology of Poker by Alan Schoonmaker, Ph.D... I started to think about how possibly I was using a TOO high ability level at a relatively ABC game, example 2/4 Limit... I then realized I have probably lost 50-100bb just on plays that no one would comprehend and if they did still probably call because the fact they knew I was a tricky player... Over using N level of thinking could lead to disaster in a hurry if you are using it against the wrong opponents...

So I was thinking that possibly some of you might have an opinion on why you shouldn't be over using Nth level of thinking against players at small stakes, both no limit and limit doesn't matter to me it's a genial poker idea/question...

My personal opinion is unless you are playing solid players I think math and simplistic reads such as reading the board would work bettor then getting into the Nth level of thinking thing and the "well I wanted to mix up my play here because..." idea, sure you MUST do these things when you are playing solid players but on average I think that the players at small stakes just don't even know what Some of the moves you try to make are, and they don't even get passed 1st level and what they have compared to the board... if they on avg are thinking 1st level you could easily beat them by thinking 2nd level and going no farther then this...

It's a one step a head principle, they think x level you think x+1 level... however once you hit a 5th or 6th level it’s kind of pointless and you need to revert back to other thinking…

So that’s my random thoughts… I’d like to hear yours…
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Kessler
Old 12-15-2005, 08:20 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I mostly play B&M 2/4 & 3/6. I have just started into my .50/1 online adventure @ Party.

I agree. I think you are making 2/4 more complicated than it needs to be. I stick to basic starting hands, outs/odds and "Making your Hand" vs not. ABC Poker if you will. Specific player reads are a bit too much to worry about, and 'mixing up your play' seems worthless because nobody at the table gives a shit about your last 20 hands because they're not paying attention in the first place. A table read of how a majority of the players play does help some though.
I tend to think that a lot of the low limit B&M players I come up against stay pretty focused on the current hand, and are busy trying to figure out if they have a straight or not instead of worrying about what YOU might have.

For example, at a local B&M Room where I play 2/4, it's usually a similar crowd, so I've gotten to remember some players and how they play. It's not uncommon for a few players to play almost every hand, call down any piece of the flop "Because they see A high win on occasion", etc. Most of the time they are not paying attention to the fact that I don't play many hands, but do take notice when I drag a big pot. I've also been successful at times to check-raise the Turn AND the River, and they are surprised the second time also. (But still call. So I stick to a pretty basic game. Call/Raise PF with premium hands, bet or check-raise if you hit the flop, call a good draw, and bail if you whiff. The patience and discipline parts are the most difficult to maintain. Waiting 2.5-3 minutes for a new hand starts to get boring, so it's easy to start playing crap out of boredom.

I'm not sure on the nth level of thinking because I haven't read the book, but I would say that low limit B&M games can be played basic Tight/Aggressive and your tight image won't kill your action too much because it may or may not be observed by your opponents. If it is, they may forget after a while, or disregard quickly anyway.

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dsaxton
Old 12-15-2005, 10:01 PM #3 (permalink)  
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"Just as you can't put a bad player on a hand, you can't put him on a thought either." - Ray Zee

I think most lower limit players (and a lot of medium and some high limit ones as well) think about the game in such a confused way, that it's pointless in most cases to try to understand their thinking, let alone manipulate it for profit.

On a similar note, I remember seeing a show about gaming in Las Vegas, where some guy was talking about how a lot of the people who play table games in Vegas do so because their attitude towards risk is concerned primarily with possibilities, and not probabilities. I think this characterizes a lot of weak poker players as well.
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Fnord
Old 12-15-2005, 10:08 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I think most lower limit players (and a lot of medium and some high limit ones as well) think about the game in such a confused way, that it's pointless in most cases to try to understand their thinking, let alone manipulate it for profit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
On a similar note, I remember seeing a show about gaming in Las Vegas, where some guy was talking about how a lot of the people who play table games in Vegas do so because their attitude towards risk is concerned primarily with possibilities, and not probabilities. I think this characterizes a lot of weak poker players as well.
There is wonderful balance in this post.

You managed to both post a great gem of poker wisdom and a great turd at the same time.
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Fnord
Old 12-15-2005, 10:11 PM     Post subject: Re: Something to think about #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
Over using N level of thinking could lead to disaster in a hurry if you are using it against the wrong opponents...
Perhaps the problem is that you are trying to N level someone without really understanding their thought process. GIGO.

Unknown raises UTG, Unknown cold-donks, I have AQ, blinds are unknown too. WEEEEEEE! Lets play some poker!
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dsaxton
Old 12-15-2005, 11:03 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I think most lower limit players (and a lot of medium and some high limit ones as well) think about the game in such a confused way, that it's pointless in most cases to try to understand their thinking, let alone manipulate it for profit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
On a similar note, I remember seeing a show about gaming in Las Vegas, where some guy was talking about how a lot of the people who play table games in Vegas do so because their attitude towards risk is concerned primarily with possibilities, and not probabilities. I think this characterizes a lot of weak poker players as well.
There is wonderful balance in this post.

You managed to both post a great gem of poker wisdom and a great turd at the same time.
What? I'm offering an explanation for why some players play worthless starting hands for multiple bets before the flop, or call large bets with gutshot straight draws and the like. They're not thinking of the likelihood of making a winning hand, just that they "might" make one.

The same is true of a slot machine player. They're not worried about their expectation on a given spin (which is obviously negative), just that they may hit a jackpot.
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Fnord
Old 12-16-2005, 04:13 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I think most lower limit players (and a lot of medium and some high limit ones as well) think about the game in such a confused way, that it's pointless in most cases to try to understand their thinking, let alone manipulate it for profit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
What? I'm offering an explanation for why some players play worthless starting hands for multiple bets before the flop, or call large bets with gutshot straight draws and the like. They're not thinking of the likelihood of making a winning hand, just that they "might" make one.

The same is true of a slot machine player. They're not worried about their expectation on a given spin (which is obviously negative), just that they may hit a jackpot.
Your original comment suggests they are an enigma of random play. The later comments put their play in a predictable (and exploitable) framework. The two views are inconsistant.
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euphoricism
Old 12-16-2005, 04:52 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Which do you prescribe to, fnord?
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pokerfanatic
Old 12-16-2005, 05:00 PM #9 (permalink)  
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yea, well I also have to mention that a 2/4 live game probably plays much different then a 2/4 online game would... for example my 4/8 game at the local B&M played like a loose passive 1/2 game not aggressive at all... I think this can idea can also fall into a No Limit players lap as well and can be much more dangerous...

I was only using my case for grounds to make a point, not necessarily an issue with my game, however I did get some good insight so far...

I think Fnord makes a great point about trying to read someone without understanding there thought process, and I think psychology of poker has done that for me more so now then when I was actually playing 2/4, I recently moved down to 1/2 6max to clean up my reads and blind play...

That's outside the scope I was looking for this discussion though, I was looking for Nth level of thinking at small stakes both limit and no limit... the pros and cons, I think Fnord made a great point I’d like him to elaborate on the statement if he would like... I understand what it means but maybe others will benefit… possibly even me…

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Perhaps the problem is that you are trying to N level someone without really understanding their thought process. GIGO.
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

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Fnord
Old 12-16-2005, 05:18 PM #10 (permalink)  
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I'll do you one better...

In NLHE with non-trival stack depth and LHE, any deterministic, predictable approach to poker is exploitable.

The real profit in poker does not come from playing our hand in some idealistic "perfect" way. It comes from finding our opponents' predictable tendencies and exploiting them.

Something to think about when you're opening for 5x UTG with AA-QQ/AK and c-bet any flop.
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dsaxton
Old 12-16-2005, 07:03 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I think most lower limit players (and a lot of medium and some high limit ones as well) think about the game in such a confused way, that it's pointless in most cases to try to understand their thinking, let alone manipulate it for profit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
What? I'm offering an explanation for why some players play worthless starting hands for multiple bets before the flop, or call large bets with gutshot straight draws and the like. They're not thinking of the likelihood of making a winning hand, just that they "might" make one.

The same is true of a slot machine player. They're not worried about their expectation on a given spin (which is obviously negative), just that they may hit a jackpot.
Your original comment suggests they are an enigma of random play. The later comments put their play in a predictable (and exploitable) framework. The two views are inconsistant.
Huh? The post was about the psychology of weak players, and says absolutely nothing about the predictability of their play. My first comment said that it's often difficult to figure out what a weaker player is thinking because their thinking about the game is confused. How does this imply either predictability or unpredictability of play?

The latter comment suggests an explanation for why some players play so loose, and also says nothing about predictability or randomness of play.

I'm having trouble seeing how, if you assume that the thinking of weak players can't be understood, that it somehow becomes impossible for their looseness to be explained by a lack of appreciation for the concept of probability. This seems like an absurd claim.
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pokerfanatic
Old 12-16-2005, 07:06 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
Huh? The post was about the psychology of weak players, and says absolutely nothing about the predictability of their play. My first comment said that it's often difficult to figure out what a weaker player is thinking because their thinking about the game is confused. How does this imply either predictability or unpredictability of play?

The latter comment suggests an explanation for why some players play so loose, and also says nothing about predictability or randomness of play.

I'm having trouble seeing how, if you assume that the thinking of weak players can't be understood, that it somehow becomes impossible for their looseness to be explained by a lack of appreciation for the concept probability. This seems like an absurd claim.
However it does have to do with playing the player and actually if you can get in there thought process first to even exploit there weakness in the first place…
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
 
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