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heatman

05-18-2004, 07:30 PM Post subject: Risky calls and player knowledge

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2004

Posts: 312

I've been paying a lot of attention to the other players in the game lately, and even stalking a few weaker players who I think I can double up on. This is stressing my game, because I'm playing a little more risky and trying to balance the science of making the correct play, against the art of knowing the player.

I've seen a couple posts around this topic, so I thought I'd lay
these two hands out there. I know both calls are questionable, but I've
tried to explain my reasoning. Please let me know what you think and what else I should be considering (BTW Fnord, nice converter). I'm also aware that raises may have been better than calls in both of these hands. No explanation, other than as the pot size gets big the liklihood of me buying somebody out of the pot gets pretty small:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed)

<BB is a guy I've played about 150 hands against the night before-per Poker Tracker. He plays every Ax combo aggressively (1/2 pot raise) and went all in three times with what I suspect were big hands like KK and AA (saw one to finish, it was KK).

CO is a person I had played only a few hands against, but twice I'd seen him raise big. Once with small pocket pairs, and once with AJ suited.>

Hero ($117)
SB ($104.20)
BB ($106.55)
UTG ($92)
UTG+1 ($92)
UTG+2 ($230.10)
MP1 ($145.30)
MP2 ($100)
MP3 ($155.85)
CO ($110.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, K

. MP2 posts a blind
of $2.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 (poster) checks, MP3
folds, CO raises to $9, Hero calls $9, SB folds, BB calls $7, MP2 calls $7.

<Didn't like the raise to $9, but I figured CO was most likely QQ or smaller or AX(s). I figured slight chance that he had KK, AA( say 20%).

Didn't give enough thought to BB, because I put him on A little or worse. He'd raise all-in with any big pocket pair, especially in that situation.>

Flop: ($37) 2

, 5

, A

(4 players)

BB checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $35.15, Hero calls $35.15, BB calls $35.15,
MP2 folds.

<I like the Ace, giving me the pair and top kicker(common error for me). Straight draw is long shot after the big raise. No flush draw. Worried about AA, but give it less than 10% chance for CO and none for BB. Put BB on Ax, fits that he calls.>

Turn: ($142.45) 4

(3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $66.15 (All-In), Hero calls $66.15, BB calls $62.40
(All-In).

<CO may be representing the straight or betting for value, but I'm sure he's got an Ace and I've got him kicked. My big mistake was not thinking about BB calling. When he did I put him on A4, giving him two pair. He's consistently in over his head with A and small kicker, so when he called, I felt sick and was mad that I hadn't thought of that when the A25 flopped.>

River: ($337.15) A

(3 players, 2 all-in)

<Awesome, got my third Ace! NOT!)

Final Pot: $337.15

Results in white below:
BB shows 2d 2s (full house, twos full of aces).
CO shows Qh Ad (three of a kind, aces).
Hero shows As Kd (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: BB wins $329.65. Hero wins $7.50.

In retrospect, I never should have been in this pot. Lack of respect for both players led me to call at the beginning, then a decent flop kept me in it. Little solace in the fact that I had CO figured right. Real mistake was not recognizing that my assumptions (both on A, smaller kickers) went out the window when the second board Ace fell. One of them had to have something else!

Second hand. Same situation, risky calls. Better results.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed)

<Never played with MP3 before, but typical straightforward, no tricks, gotta lot to learn player. Bet hard with top pair, small kicker a few hands back (9s) and I took him down with pocket tens. Had played with SB before. He's loose and buys a lot of pots>

Hero ($143.80)
Button ($208.55)
SB ($24.90)
BB ($58)
UTG ($231.30)
UTG+1 ($91.57)
UTG+2 ($89)
MP1 ($144.70)
MP2 ($110.30)
MP3 ($49.95)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J

, J

.
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $6, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls
$6, Hero calls $6, Button calls $6, SB calls $5, BB folds.

<I like to play JJ as small pocket pairs so I'm happy to have 5 in the pot for $6 a piece. I'm thinking "set or get" - then the flop is all undercards>

Flop: ($32) T

, 2

, 9

(5 players)

SB bets $18.9 (All-In), UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls $18.90, Hero calls $18.90,
Button calls $18.90.

<hmmm...Big raise (but only about half pot), maybe buying or protecting top pair from the draw. MP3 probably on top pair. Could raise, with an overpair and backdoor flush/straight draws - but it won't buy the pot and might cost me a bunch if there's a set or two pair out there, Call>

Turn: ($107.60) 5

(4 players, 1 all-in)
MP3 bets $25.05 (All-In), Hero calls $25.05, Button calls $25.05.

<This guy loves top pair. I can't throw away an overpair. I think the button is on a draw. Considered a raise, but with this pot size I'm unlikely to chase anyone off - How did I get myself into this?!>

River: ($182.75) J

(4 players, 2 all-in)
Hero bets $25, Button calls $25.

<Awesome, got my third J! >

Final Pot: $232.75

Results in white below:
SB shows 4c 9s (one pair, nines).
MP3 shows Ts Ah (one pair, tens).
Hero shows Jd Jh (three of a kind, jacks).
Button shows Js Qc (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins $232.75.

So, it breaks out to be SB all-in on an underpair. MP3 all in with top pair, best kicker. Button was on a straight draw. Knoweldge of how MP3 and SB plays kept me in the hand, and in this case it was good info. In the AK pot above, my thoughts about the players kept me in a pot I shouldn't have been in.

I'm really working hard trying to learn how to put the info I gather on players to good use, and balance it with the hard numbers. Thoughts and pointers appreciated!

"Limit poker is a science, but no-limit is an art..."

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fishstick

05-18-2004, 07:49 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2004

Location: Carlsbad, CA

Posts: 1,405

hand 1

i've made this mistake way too many times myself - focusing on the bettor and not paying attention to the caller. being familiar with the BB's play, i don't see how you could have guessed a set (becoming a boat)- he probably would have played ax the same way.

i don't know - would have been a hard laydown.

hand 2

i would have been raising (as you said) rather than calling. made yourself a nice pot!

Blackstar

05-18-2004, 08:15 PM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: May 2004

Location: Plymouth Meeting, PA

Posts: 23

In my opinion, Hand one you played bad. you let pocket 2s take control over your table. he raises 9 and you called. you are on your heals from the jump. If you re-raise to let's say 28-36 preflop, deuces are history. AJ may call then you get to pwn him for all of his money. If 22 plays, you lose your money anyway. therefore you should get your money in the pot earlier. If deuces(you don't know he has deuces) re re raises you then you can fold if you think he has KK or AA. Anything other than that and you are a coinflip preflop or even a favorite...

Hand 2 like fishstick said, I would be raising the whole time especially pre-flop. I wouldn't have made as mush as you did on that hand though...

You don't have to have the nuts. Just the balls!

heatman

05-18-2004, 08:51 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2004

Posts: 312

Great point Blackstar. I think alot of the real expensive hands I've played start out with mistakes pre-flop. $20-30 pre-flop can save $100 down the line. Thinking about that hand, and a very similar one posted under "Fnord got me", I'm playing AK poorly. How do others play it? I thought the $9 raise would limit callers after me, and I'm not in bad shape with three in the pot. Five sucks.

As far as the jacks go, I hate that hand. Any overcard and I'm history without the set. Not sure a raise would have folded the draw hand, given the ones she called, but it would likely have folded anybody on an overcard. I could have raised more on the end, too, but I figured if she missed her draw I wouldn't get a call. Bad logic, I know, because if she's gonna call $25, she'd probably call $50, so why bet at all? Hitting top pair there is what kept her in.

Thanks

"Limit poker is a science, but no-limit is an art..."

fishstick

05-18-2004, 09:25 PM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2004

Location: Carlsbad, CA

Posts: 1,405

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blackstar

If you re-raise to let's say 28-36 preflop, deuces are history.

you know, i'd like to believe this is true, but i regularly get called by small pocket pairs on a large pre-flop raise when i've got AA or KK. i consider $5 - $7 a large PFR in $25 NL game.

granted, most of the time they're chasers and stay in to the river (not that i'm not complaining).

heatman

05-19-2004, 03:56 AM

#6 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2004

Posts: 312

This is $100 NL, so the $9 raise doesn't chase away many small pocket pairs. I should have re-raised and isolated Mr. AQ. Even then, you still get a lot of chasers, so there's no guarantee.

I've got about 600 hands in Poker Tracker now, and AKo is by far my loosingest hand. I just don't play them well. I've played them four times and won only once for a net loss of $125 and an average loss of $28.70.

On the other hand, my winning hands are stuff like 55, 66, 98s, all above $20 per hand. Small sample, I know, but I better figure out how I want to play AK or I better quit.

My problem is that I don't play them aggressively enough, I think. I'm thinking they're definitely best with two callers or less, so I need to raise accordingly, or watch my butt.

"Limit poker is a science, but no-limit is an art..."

Fnord

05-19-2004, 10:53 AM

#7 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,336

Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Quote:

Originally Posted by heatman

AK is all about luck, position and number of players seeing the flop. You should be re-raising the initial raiser with it (within reason.)

Per the hands:

Hand 1:
Be VERY afraid of that call behind you. I've made a lot of great laydowns paying attention to what that 3rd guy is doing. Once 2 players are representing strong, you have to be able to beat them both. Although I would have raised to isolate pre-flop, then gone over the top with that flop.

Hand 2:
An overpair needs MORE protection than Top Pair Top Kicker. There are more cards out there that beat you. Raise the flop. Also, I raise to isolate pre-flop. JJ loses a ton of value in a family pot.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

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