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RockyMoose
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10-28-2008, 06:46 PM
Post subject: QQ hand
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 196
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12-person tourney, down to 9 players, home game. I am UTG ~2k chips with QQ. Blinds are 50/100.
I raise to 450 UTG, called by one player who has me covered, maybe $3k in his stack.
Flop comes TT5 rainbow. I c-bet 500 -- so half of my stack in in this pot now. Villain insta-calls.
Turn is a blank, a 4. I check. He quickly puts me all-in and looks very confident. I'm sure he has a hand.
So I'm in the tank for a long while, and my reasoning is the only hand he could possibly have (and bet that way) that I'm beating is JJ. I haven't played with him before, but my sense is that he is pretty loose preflop. He could have AT, KT, QT, KK, AA (maybe a set of fives?).
So I fold.
I'm sure this was the right move, but why did it take me so long to figure out? I'm sure there is some strategy to learn here so that next time I analyze the situation faster. Was my c-bet on the flop incorrect?
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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If he has 66, 77, 88, 99, JJ - do you expect him to fold to your c-bet on the flop?
What happens next? - you fold: now you have 10bb left, and you have to shove Ax and any pocket pair to get back in the game.
If he has a T in any combination then he made a horrible call preflop and this situation is massively +EV for you in the long run (assuming that you won't raise Ax, TJ... in this situation).
To put QT in his PF calling range, and then assuming he has you beat more than 75% of the time here needs one hell of a read, and one really strange type of opponent.
The only hands he can have here that beat you without having made a horrible mistake preflop are AA and KK. On top of that you need a read that he won't 3-bet them preflop after your "I'm ready to go" raise.
I can't figure out a real-life scenario where this is not a snap-call of Phil Helmuth proportions.
Plus it's a home game. Ask him what he has! Offer him peanuts to see one card. Turn over your hand. But preferably just cry "I CALL" as obnoxiously as you can.
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RockyMoose
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 196
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Quote:
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If he has 66, 77, 88, 99, JJ - do you expect him to fold to your c-bet on the flop?
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No, but I don't expect him to put me all-in on the turn. With 99, I'd expect a flop call and we'd both check down turn and river like typical nits. I'd previously seen him min bet the river of a big pot with middle pair, and a shove bluff did not seem likely from this guy. He was betting what he had.
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What happens next? - you fold: now you have 10bb left, and you have to shove Ax and any pocket pair to get back in the game.
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Yeah, that's what happened. That's part of why I was in the tank so long.
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To put QT in his PF calling range, and then assuming he has you beat more than 75% of the time here needs one hell of a read, and one really strange type of opponent.
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Opponent was definitely weak/loose, with little understanding of pot odds and calling requirements. He was oozing confidence, but trying to hide it -- not the "strong means weak" act of a more experienced amateur. I don't think I would have folded this online, but I just couldn't put him on JJ with 75% confidence. Anything else had me beat.
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Plus it's a home game. Ask him what he has!
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He showed after I folded my QQ face up. Wanna know, or should I not post results?
Anyway, I really appreciate the comments. I'll be playing some live Vegas tourneys next month, so I've been thinking alot about reading people. Usually my home game is with the same guys each time, but this was an instance where I had to base all my information on what I'd seen from the this player during the current game.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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You go broke here.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,166
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I am in love that flop with QQ and stacks this shallow. If he's a nit, is he really going to be calling your raise of 15% of his stack with hands like JT, QT, KT? He has a smaller pocket pair here nearly always, and is trying to protect against a free river card vs your likely missed overcards.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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RockyMoose
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 196
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OK, these comments are good and true for online poker -- I wouldn't think twice about going broke on this hand online, but this was a live game, a home game, and the Villain was NOT a nit -- quite the opposite. [edit: I realize I called him a nit earlier, but that wasn't quite right] My read on him was that while he is no doubt a smart guy when not playing cards, he is a poker beginner, with no sense of preflop calling requirements, pot odds, stack sizes, etc, and would call a preflop raise with almost any donk hand. He is a fish, with small bets, calls, and mini raises up to this point. He will only raise all-in with a real hand, not to protect an underpair. "Protect your hand" has no meaning to him.
You have to take the player and the situation into context. It took me some time to figure it out, but he had me beat. It would have been impossible to lay down QQ online, and I don't think I could have made the same read in a casino.
Anyway, the dude had quad tens on the flop. I was thinking AT or KT, but it makes sense why he was so bad at hiding his monster in hindsight, and also helps explain why I was so confident in my read: he was not good at hiding the fact that he had a strong hand.
Thanks again for the comments -- you have reinforced the fact that the "correct" play was to lose all my chips. My fear was that this was an obvious fold and I was thinking too long about an easy decision. Quite the opposite -- it was an easy call and took some time to figure out why to fold.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Why do you even bother asking?
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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ghem67
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 45
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Definite FOld
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,603
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
You fist pump go broke here unless you have a soul read.
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fixed
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nonodz
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 26
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i hate this hand , I loose each 4 time /5
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