Originally Posted by chardrian

My biggest problem with your hand, as you describe it is your "insta-call" on the turn.

Poker is a game about using the information you have at your disposable optimally. Rarely is it optimal to make a decision instantly, and I can't think of a scenario against an old nit where it ever would be helpful.

Originally Posted by chardrian

So our decision on the river, is whether to bet for value, bet as a bluff, and if so how much.

Originally Posted by chardrian

My biggest problem with your hand, as you describe it is your "insta-call" on the turn.

Poker is a game about using the information you have at your disposable optimally. Rarely is it optimal to make a decision instantly, and I can't think of a scenario against an old nit where it ever would be helpful.

So what info do we have? We know he's an old nit who is getting paid off when he has hands.

On the flop he basically minraises us - this means he either has a set or he could have a hand like A9 or TT-QQ. I am going to take AA out of his range because he would have re-raised with AA preflop. Some players would raise with a big draw on this flop (i.e. Ahxh or 4h5h) but most old nits don't - they would c/c.

When he bets small on the turn, he has changed his pattern because you say he usually bets big with a made hand. It is hard to say exactly what this means since the flush draw hit. He either still has a hand that crushes you (a set) which he is now playing cautiously, or he has a TT-QQ hand and just doesn't feel as confident.

On the river we are still in a weird spot because now a straight draw has hit as well. The fact that it is a highly unlikely straight doesn't really matter with old nits, because they don't think in terms of ranges, they just see possible hands that beat them and think you can have it.

So our decision on the river, is whether to bet for value, bet as a bluff, and if so how much. If he has a set here, I don't think betting as a bluff will work. He may sigh and complain and show his hand to his neighbors and take his time, but he will likely call in the end. If he actually does have a hand we beat - such as TT-QQ, then we need to be careful in how much we bet because he actually might fold here. So I don't like a river shove since he will call when we're beat and will often fold when we're ahead.

The only good thing we have going for us in this spot is that this guy is never raising us on the river unless he has the nuts and is totally hollywooding. He is just going to call our bet no matter what. So really the question comes down to whether we should bet for value. Since there are more combinations of TT-QQ then there are sets and since his bet was small on the turn I think it is more likely that he has a hand that we beat then it is that he has a hand that beats us. So in the end I would bet around 1/2 pot - somewhere between $60-80. It's an amount he will likely call when we are ahead, and it's an amount we can stand to lose when he outflopped us.

Originally Posted by bikes

i think its far more likely villian has a set than TT-QQ A9

Originally Posted by baudib

I think against this type of player his bet-sizing tells the whole story. These live players who play passive tight until they have the nuts usually don't bet this small when they can beat overpairs, this is more along the line of "raise for information" on the flop.

Your image and the whole he plays good one-pair hands vs. PFR is pretty important information you left out.