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managing live variance
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LawDude
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03-02-2009, 06:56 PM
Post subject: managing live variance
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Since you play far fewer hands live than online, variance is going to seem much greater than it really is (because in any session, you will have fewer hands in which things might tend to "even out"). Thus managing variance is extremely important in playing live poker. Here are some things I think about with respect to this topic:
1. Bankroll management. Nothing that hasn't already been said a million times on FTR, but make sure you have enough money to survive being felted a number of times without it having an impact on your life.
2. Don't worry about whether you are "up" or "down" for one session. This is the curse of gamblers-- once they lose some money, they lose more money trying to win it back. The only thing that matters is the long term.
3. Keep detailed records of your live play. I have a spiral notebook where I record the casino, limits, buy-ins, profits or losses, and anything notable about the hands that I played. This will help you keep your eyes on the big picture.
4. For ring games, decide how long you are going to play and then stick to it unless there is some compelling reason to stay longer. Obviously, I am not telling you to go home when a fish is giving you a large portion of his money. But short of that, I find it's helpful to say that I will be at the tables for x number of hours and that's it. This also ensures that I won't start making bad decisions because I am tired or have been card dead.
5. Don't change your game simply because you are losing. If someone is beating you because they have a particular style of play that you can exploit by playing differently against him, fine. That's a perfectly good thing to do. But when I was learning poker, I would get the temptation on a bad day to start chasing pots, playing iffy starting hands, and playing out of position. Don't do this. Be patient. If you can't play your game, it's time to go home.
6. Recognize tilting, frustration, or tiredness. If you are playing perfectly well and are just card-dead, that's one thing. But if you start making bad decisions, that's time to head home.
7. Change tables if you need to. This won't change the cards that you are being dealt. But what it will do is change your opponents. Perhaps the fresh opponents won't have as good a read on you; perhaps you are having trouble going up against a particular opponent whose style vexes you or whose presence tilts you.
8. Never use a casino ATM to obtain money for a re-buy. If you are withdrawing money there, that's an almost unfailing sign that you need to go home.
Finally, don't ever blame the dealer for bad luck, card death, or bad beats! The dealer is dealing out cards at random. He isn't responsible for the fact that your set of aces was cracked by 4 cards to a flush. Way too many players at the casinos think that dealers are these all powerful gods who control our fate. They aren't.
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muzatti
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In real poker I always win, and here for some reason was not present!
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