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OP
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03-24-2009, 08:15 PM
Post subject: I play $5/$10 like a girl
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Iso'ing Iso's
Posts: 117
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Since i can't post hand histories yet I figured i'd bump up the post count by posting here with some hands I've had trouble with recently.
Game has only been running 2 1/2 hours or so, but I've played with BB on quite a few occasions and he's solid but on the nitty side and a thinking player. Button is relatively unknown but has made some disgustingly bad plays so we'll call him Fish.
~$1400 effective
Im UTG with   and raise to $35 (standard for this game)
Fish calls, BB squeezes to $130, I call and button calls
Pot $395
Flop comes   
BB leads for $275
I call, Fish calls (ORLY?)
Pot $1220
Turn comes 
BB ships for ~$1000
I know BB can squeeze semi-light here to get heads up verse the donkey on the button and could quite possibly flat his monsters.
I don't know if he knows that i know that, but probably.
Button is coming in 95% of the time behind me so I'm not going anywhere.
Flop bet doesn't really strike fear in me since he could still continue with AK or AQ here and button is gonna float with almost any pair or
gutshot.
Turn is a HUGE "what the F" moment.
Thoughts?
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LawDude
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03-24-2009, 08:32 PM
Post subject: Re: I play $5/$10 like a girl
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#2 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by OP
Since i can't post hand histories yet I figured i'd bump up the post count by posting here with some hands I've had trouble with recently.
Game has only been running 2 1/2 hours or so, but I've played with BB on quite a few occasions and he's solid but on the nitty side and a thinking player. Button is relatively unknown but has made some disgustingly bad plays so we'll call him Fish.
~$1400 effective
Im UTG with and raise to $35 (standard for this game)
Fish calls, BB squeezes to $130, I call and button calls
Pot $395
Flop comes
BB leads for $275
I call, Fish calls (ORLY?)
Pot $1220
Turn comes
BB ships for ~$1000
I know BB can squeeze semi-light here to get heads up verse the donkey on the button and could quite possibly flat his monsters.
I don't know if he knows that i know that, but probably.
Button is coming in 95% of the time behind me so I'm not going anywhere.
Flop bet doesn't really strike fear in me since he could still continue with AK or AQ here and button is gonna float with almost any pair or
gutshot.
Turn is a HUGE "what the F" moment.
Thoughts? |
There's only 2 hands that beat you, and yes, it is possible that BB has them, but if he has any sort of a hand and thinks he's ahead, he's doing this due to the second diamond hitting the board and the straight draw that it also creates.
Unless you can put someone as being quite likely to have a made straight or a flush, you really have to treat a set as an opportunity to get all your chips into the pot. You are ahead of quite a bit of BB's range and you have good odds to call. Just go ahead and shove it, it's a positive EV play.
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OP
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03-24-2009, 08:44 PM
Post subject: Re: I play $5/$10 like a girl
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#3 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Iso'ing Iso's
Posts: 117
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
There's only 2 hands that beat you, and yes, it is possible that BB has them.
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I think the fact he shoves into 2 players and one being a big calling station makes it more possible he has them.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lawdude
You are ahead of quite a bit of BB's range and you have good odds to call.
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Since he's not likely to bluff here what do you think his value range consists of? On top of that, I'm pretty sure he's aware of what odds he is giving.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Just call pre-flop if the game is super-soft.
Turn is tough, I really don't hate a laydown if his 3-bet range is typical.
I don't hate a call either and online I would fist-pump-snap here.
This whole hand comes down to what you think of the BB.
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LawDude
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03-24-2009, 08:59 PM
Post subject: Re: I play $5/$10 like a girl
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#5 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by OP
Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
There's only 2 hands that beat you, and yes, it is possible that BB has them.
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I think the fact he shoves into 2 players and one being a big calling station makes it more possible he has them.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lawdude
You are ahead of quite a bit of BB's range and you have good odds to call.
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Since he's not likely to bluff here what do you think his value range consists of? On top of that, I'm pretty sure he's aware of what odds he is giving. |
Basically, any Ace that he would be willing to 3-bet before the flop. AK, AQ, definitely. Perhaps Q8 or 22, though those are much less likely. He could even do this with KK, if he doesn't think you have an ace.
The problem with assuming set-over-set is that there are only 6 combinations of 2 cards in the entire deck that he can have that beat you. Set-over-set is extremely rare. So because it is so unlikely, you really have to be able to narrow his range all the way down for a call not to be positive EV.
To put a finer point on it, even if you think he is MOST likely to do this with AA and QQ, if it is POSSIBLE that he might do this with other hands, you have to take into account that it is mathematically more likely for him to have that hand. There are 6 combinations of KK vs. only 3 combinations of AA or QQ. There are 12 combinations of AK and 9 combinations of AQ.
Because there are so few combinations of set-over-set, this is why you have to be more sure that it really has happened than you would need to be with other reads or ranges.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Most of the players in my regular game flat AK/AQ pre-flop, and certainly would if the OP has a tight table image.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Most of the players in my regular game flat AK/AQ pre-flop, and certainly would if the OP has a tight table image.
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I've seen plenty of players who will re-raise those hands in no-limit. But again, this is such a totally read-dependent situation.
It's just that when there are only 6 possible hands out of 1000 that can beat you, I would figure that your read needs to be pretty darned precise. But then, I always felt that humans were put on earth to get all their chips in when they hit a set. 
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OP
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Iso'ing Iso's
Posts: 117
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Most of the players in my regular game flat AK/AQ pre-flop, and certainly would if the OP has a tight table image.
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He knows I play a pretty well balanced TAGGy style... and he probably thinks my UTG range either clobbered this flop or completely bricked, which is unlikely since i called his flop bet. But I think the button's presence in this hand effected the BB's action more than my table image. But I tend to just level myself sometimes in these spots.
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OP
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Iso'ing Iso's
Posts: 117
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FWIW I folded, Fish fistpump snapcalls with AJ offsuit.
Soul reading BB's QQ was more rewarding than a 3k pot. Pretty crazy flop. Live poker is so rigged.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
It's just that when there are only 6 possible hands out of 1000 that can beat you
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We can eliminate most of those 1000.
Lets say his re-raise range is heavily biased towards QQ+ and he's unlikely to re-raise AK and doesn't re-raise AQ and maybe goes off with trash once in a while. However if he's aware of the calling station, we can discount his trash too.
Next let's consider the range of hands he's continuing with once he's called by both players on the flop. Now we can eliminate KK and almost all of his trash. We figure he doesn't even see a flop with AQ. So it's down to AA, QQ and a heavily discounted AK. This decision weighs on how heavily we discount AK.
It's really sick that some people play poker so bad this is a laydown.
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2ndline.4thstreet
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 120
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
I don't hate a call either and online I would fist-pump-snap here.
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Why would you fold this live and call online? Weaker range online?
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 2ndline.4thstreet
Weaker range online?
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Online players don't play AK and one pair hands like sissies. They also will run more inspired bluffs.
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salsa4ever
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 1,073
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ni han
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigred
Would you bone your cousins? Salsa would.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by salsa4ever
well courtie, since we're both clear, would you accept an invitation for some unprotected sex?
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by salsa4ever
ni han
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Leave it to the Omaha player to not even blick at folding bottom set to heat.
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