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I feel stupid for posting this but I have a HUGE read

  
 
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baudib
Old 12-22-2011, 10:59 AM     Post subject: I feel stupid for posting this but I have a HUGE read #1 (permalink)  
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Personally not much of a live read guy but people are such tellboxes.

UTG raises to $25 in $1-$3 game, MP calls. I make it $80 OTB with

UTG says, "Eh, you got kings?" he eventually calls. MP folds and shows his hand to his neighbor.

Villain is an older, totally degen Korean guy who has all sorts of random bizarre patterns that you'd expect from a weirdo random live player. He is a ginormous tellbox and I can always read when he's strong. I've seen him make horrendous calldowns but he only shoves postflop when he's got it. He doesn't really bluff.

I have $360 behind and he has me covered.

Flop:

He checks and he stares right at me. He ALWAYS does this when he has a monster hand and is trapping.

I check, and MP starts tapping his neighbor and gesturing helplessly.

turn:
He goes all-in. $360 to call, pot $549.

I am pretty damn sure MP had an Ace and UTG is NOT bluffing. So just WTF call?
Playing big pots at small stakes.
 
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chardrian
Old 12-22-2011, 04:01 PM #2 (permalink)  
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There are 4 As in the deck so there is no way you can fold. If your tells are right then MP either had Ax or TT; and villain has either Ax or TT. Don't forget that villain can totally fit your read here with AQ as well. Add to the mix that reads aren't always right and/or that villain sees MP spazzing so thinks it's unlikely you have the A and has already put you on KK and this becomes an even easier call since he actually could be bluffing/value shoving with worse.
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KoRnholio
Old 12-22-2011, 05:49 PM #3 (permalink)  
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"totally degen Korean guy"

I'd say AQ and AJ are well within his range. Maybe even A9/A8. IMO these loose/bad gambler types love hitting a pair, and when they hit good trips they think they've just flopped the nuts.

It does kinda sound like MP may have folded an ace, but I wouldn't put that much reliance in that tell.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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bikes
Old 12-23-2011, 10:28 AM #4 (permalink)  
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why did you check the flop?
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bikes
Old 12-23-2011, 10:30 AM #5 (permalink)  
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also possible MP folded TT, infact more likely that he folded TT imo
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RockyMoose
Old 12-23-2011, 05:55 PM #6 (permalink)  
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TT no good. Sammy gonna send you home.
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KoRnholio
Old 12-23-2011, 06:51 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bikes View Post
also possible MP folded TT, infact more likely that he folded TT imo
I don't know about it being more likely. I doubt he folds TT preflop. Plus the way the flop action went (check, check) followed by his tell, I'd say he had a weakish ace. If he had TT the reaction would have been as soon as the flop came down. A weak ace the reaction was delayed until he saw the lack of action (indicating a probable no one else has an ace, his Ax was good, etc).
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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baudib
Old 12-24-2011, 02:44 AM #8 (permalink)  
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I've never been creeped out by somebody's uber-strong vibe when I had a hand.
Playing big pots at small stakes.
 
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thefishtank
Old 12-24-2011, 03:20 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Bet flop. Is this guy a higher level thinker that he might think that your 3-betting range preflop possibly includes stronger aces? What is UTGs raising range?

MP guy probably folded an Ace, probably even A-10 so is it possible that all the 4 aces had been dealt.

In the end, only 10-10, A-10 and A-7 beats u, Im not folding this one as UTG can have weaker aces on his range and he MIGHT think that it's good.
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KoRnholio
Old 12-24-2011, 07:19 AM #10 (permalink)  
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I'll believe that we can be convinced he thinks he has a monster. But given the description of this guy (and that he seems to have put us on KK), I think he'd do this with AQ or even AJ.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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baudib
Old 12-24-2011, 07:52 AM #11 (permalink)  
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I mean I was 100% sure I was beat but I instacalled just based on suckout equity + DUH what else do I do with AK on AAxx. If someone else posted this hand, I'd for sure say "duh call."

I've probably never checked back AAx with AK in a live game before.

FWIW, I never did take his "you have kings?" line into consideration because it looked like he shoved fully thinking I would call.

I've never made the super-exploitable fold based on ridiculously strong live reads + specific history but wondered afterwards if this was one of those times where I could do it.
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KoRnholio
Old 12-24-2011, 06:31 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I suppose too we're also going to be chopping the pot quite often when he rolls over the same hand.

Even with the strong read I just can't find a fold here.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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Fnord
Old 12-28-2011, 02:23 AM #13 (permalink)  
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This is a pretty pro fold with ~180ish in the pot $360 to call.

With pot or less behind, I would still call.
 
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RUNGOODNATION
Old 01-19-2012, 08:01 PM     Post subject: Ak aa10board #14 (permalink)  
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what did he have? smarter play 2 call... but I can see a fold here and very possible to put him on 10-10s with the preflop action
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