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cag8f
Old 10-30-2008, 06:53 PM     Post subject: Home tourney bubble help #1 (permalink)  
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Tourney is a weekly home game I host. $20 freeze out, with 8 players this night. Top 3 get paid: $88, $40, and $20. Blinds go up to 200/400 in about 10 mins (30 minutes blind levels). Button is on life support with less than 1BB left. BB was very tight, but SB was very loose. He'd try to limp in *every* pot, but whenever someone pushed behind him, he'd fold. He hadn't shown any loose calls up until this point.

Blinds t100/t200

Hero (t1200)
Button (t150)
SB (t3000)
BB (t1650)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with
,

Hero???


Obviously if I want to cash I fold. But can an argument be made to push under the 'play to win' school of thought? In my normal online SNG's this is a clear fold, but does the fact that it's a live game change anything?
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al yell
Old 10-30-2008, 07:08 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Keep in mind that the SB and BB are going to be thinking about cashing too and will make tighter than usual folds. I don't mind a shove here for that reason - plus the blinds are high, plus you have a strong hand, plus you're four-handed.
When Push Comes To Shove
 
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oskar
Old 10-30-2008, 08:00 PM #3 (permalink)  
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oskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura about
 This is pretty definitely a push IMO With 4M left you won't see a better hand before blinding down.
If you fold now, you have 900 after the next two hands, and the 1bb stack is pretty much even money to tripple up since he's getting called with any 2 from the SB.
With the stacks in play you guys are pretty even money to win this - except for the button.
I generally think tight is right on the bubble (unless the rest of the table is unreasonably tight wich is when I would try to pick up as many blinds as possible.) But you are VERY short here - as is everyone else.
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swiggidy
Old 10-30-2008, 10:39 PM #4 (permalink)  
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JR9477
Old 10-30-2008, 11:16 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 You've got some good reads on your opponents

If you push;
Button doesn't even have a big blind.
SB typically folds against pushes, pushing is good here.
BB likes to play strong hands, there are not many hands stronger than this one, pushing is fine here.

It sounds like a push will easily pick up the blinds without a struggle if they are holding less than premium hands.
If they do call, unless they flip over AA or KK, you're a coinflip at worst. At best you dominate any other Ace.
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swiggidy
Old 10-30-2008, 11:36 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JR9477
You've got some good reads on your opponents

If you push;
Button doesn't even have a big blind.
SB typically folds against pushes, pushing is good here.
BB likes to play strong hands, there are not many hands stronger than this one, pushing is fine here.

It sounds like a push will easily pick up the blinds without a struggle if they are holding less than premium hands.
If they do call, unless they flip over AA or KK, you're a coinflip at worst. At best you dominate any other Ace.
Not a bad analysis. I doubt you could come up with any scenario that makes pushing here -ev$.

Like say SB & BB each call 50% of the time. You still win the blinds 25% of the time, 25% you get knocked out, 35% of the time you double up and 15% of the time you triple up. That's such a huge equity boost anytime, let alone having just 6BB.

IF someone flips AA or KK, lol and flop a straight.
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givememyleg
Old 10-31-2008, 06:36 AM #7 (permalink)  
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RockyMoose
Old 10-31-2008, 05:22 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 In a home game, I play this hand on the bubble UTG but will not go broke with it.

The button should be all-in with any two cards, and you are a fav against all but a pocket pair.

I would look at my cards, immediately move to my chips, make a slight bob with my head, hesitate, and then min raise. Then go stone cold poker face. Don't move a muscle.

You'll make it look like a monster. Button will be making a mistake if he doesn't call, and maybe the other players will call your min raise and check it down with you to help burst the bubble.

If you get re-raised, you fold. Yes, your M is too small for this move, but in a home game you can make it work.
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givememyleg
Old 10-31-2008, 05:36 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 rockymoose, if you're not going broke with kk what are you going broke with

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RockyMoose
Old 10-31-2008, 05:45 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by givememyleg
rockymoose, if you're not going broke with kk what are you going broke with
He has AK, not KK. I wouldn't call a rr with AK on the bubble as described if it meant all my chips. Harrington, Vol III. The button is going to bust out at any moment.

In fact, I go bust on this hand, in this situation, with AA or KK only. I fold QQ to a re-raise.
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swiggidy
Old 10-31-2008, 06:17 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockyMoose
In fact, I go bust on this hand, in this situation, with AA or KK only. I fold QQ to a re-raise.
LOL, you have 6 BB. You're min-raising, then folding 4bb into a 6bb pot. That's so amazingly terrible on every level. This isn't a satellite.

Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
YOU WANT 1ST NOT 3RD. Gambool!!!
The gambool was somewhat sarcastic. Sure you have a chance of losing, but this is almost an ideal situation. You can't wait for AA/KK because they're only coming once every 100 hands and you can't make it 12 hands without blinding out.
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givememyleg
Old 10-31-2008, 06:38 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 yes i knew he had ak, i accidentally typed kk though, my statement still applies

you're way too tight on the bubble with 6 bbs..... it's bad, no it's sinful to raise/fold with any hand here, let alone ak or qq

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RockyMoose
Old 10-31-2008, 07:01 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 swigg, have you read Harrington Vol III? He descibes this situation in great detail. Yes, your M is small, but so is everyones. The factors here are twofold: 1 -- the button, in the dead zone, and 2 -- the fact that you are on the bubble with 0% of the prize pool if you bust out, and 20% of the prize pool (in a typical STT) for surviving just one more player. The swing in money is HUGE, the same swing as from 2nd to first place (i.e. 20% more of the prize pool). The dead zone guy must go.

Busting out here is a huge mistake. The button should call with ATC and the others should fold or call your min raise with all but KK and AA. Any other reasonable hand (pp, AQ) can call and check it down with you. The button is so dead he needs to be taken out, and I will be happy to take him out with AK, but not risk ITM from a shove from one of the other stacks.

A limp here, since it is more than the button has, is likewise fine here, and could get the others to cooperate and call/check down as well.
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givememyleg
Old 10-31-2008, 07:29 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockyMoose
Busting out here is a huge mistake. The button should call with ATC and the others should fold or call your min raise with all but KK and AA. Any other reasonable hand (pp, AQ) can call and check it down with you. The button is so dead he needs to be taken out, and I will be happy to take him out with AK, but not risk ITM from a shove from one of the other stacks.
haha how many people at home games have read hoh1,2,3? don't expect bad players to "do what is right."

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cag8f
Old 11-01-2008, 04:48 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Very good discussion--thanks all.

FWIW, I don't think any of the remaining players left have even heard of Harrington, so I don't expect them to do what they should. I know for sure that the button has no problem waiting for the blind to hit him in the hopes he picks up aces.

My initial thought at the table was more in line with Moose: busting out here is the worst scenario. (However raise/fold wasn't in my consideration at all.) Pushing for the purposes of "gambling" isn't the most convincing argument for me. But the analyses by other posters sold me on pushing.

In game? I looked down and my brain was screaming, "If you like money, lay it down." But then I heard a faint whisper from my balls saying, "Push," and all of a sudden my chips were in the middle. Button happily folded. The loose big stack in SB called and BB folded. Stomach sank when he flipped 88 and the flop was all blanks. Turn and river were A and K, and the win put me in great shape, and I eventually won.
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RockyMoose
Old 11-01-2008, 05:45 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 I never expect the players to "do what is right" unless I already know they have read HOH (and know how to apply it, which is another matter), which can happen in a home game.

In your case, where you KNOW they have not read HOH, you use that to your advantage as well. The loose SB will therefore call your shove with too wide a range!

This is a good discussion. I think I'm liking the limp open now instead of the raise/fold situation, and still folding to any raise preflop. (I hate limping in general, one of the reasons I would have probably min raised if it were me playing.) I still do not like the shove, especially knowing the big stack will call you with a wide range of hands.

Anyway, HOH vol III pages 251-276 covers all this, and I just re-read it because of this discussion. There is quite a bit of math involved, and he assumes everyone is in shove/push mode. He covers calling requirements when faced with an all-in in great detail, but does not cover opening the pot as much. First-in vigorish is certainly valuable, so I will concede that a shove may be the best move here. I'm sure raise/fold is not in Harrington's recommendations either, since he assumes everyone is shoving or folding, so I need to think about limp/fold preflop now. The button is so dead, I would hate to bust out in this position. Folding UTG with AK seems too weak. Great problem!
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swiggidy
Old 11-01-2008, 06:02 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockyMoose
I still do not like the shove, especially knowing the big stack will call you with a wide range of hands.
What wide range? 88+, AQ+? That's 5%. What if he adds Ax? You're unhappy taking a 75% shot of doubling through the big stack to take the chip lead?

If this was a "standard" payout I'd almost be tempted to do the ICM for you. But as is the payout is 60%, 28%, 14%. You play for first and push.
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TLR
Old 11-01-2008, 06:44 PM #18 (permalink)  
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 It is a clear push, the stacks are very low and you are not guarnteed a place in the money,


 
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swiggidy
Old 11-02-2008, 12:42 AM #19 (permalink)  
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 Ok, I'm bored and have 10 min before the cavs game starts. I'm going to assume 50/30/20 payout

It's called ICM, here's one calculator:
http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php

As it stands you have $27.10 equity
If you push and the blinds fold you have $29.47
If you push and get called, lets assume it's the big stack:
If you win you're $33.99
If you lose $0

What we're looking for is
27.1 <> (1-p)*29.47 + p*eq*33.99

p is the probability you get called, which if we pick hands from pokerstove it will give us a %, and we can compare that vs AKo.

AK, 88+ we have 41.5% equity, and that's 4.4% of hands
(1-0.044) * 29.47 + 0.044*0.415*33.99 = $28.23

Let's try 20% (generic from pokerstove)
{ 44+, A5s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
61.066%
(1-0.20) * 29.47 + 0.20*0.61066*33.99 = $27.73

50% (generic) 64.65% equity
(1-0.50) * 29.47 + 0.50*0.6465*33.99 = $25.72

So, if you thought SB would call with ATC, you could make an argument for folding. Otherwise it's very slightly +eV to push. Apparently folding is not a huge mistake.
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oskar
Old 11-02-2008, 02:15 AM #20 (permalink)  
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 What about minraise/fold a'la Rocky Moose?
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