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baudib
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11-09-2009, 06:11 AM
Post subject: Doing business
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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are you guys in favor of running hands twice, and in what circumstances? I suppose it would be easy to calculate profitability formulas and know exactly when you should do business, but playing live there are sometimes situations where doing business, even if it's to your disadvantage, might be a good idea, I think.
Eg:
1. If you believe you have a skill advantage over the table, it might be a good idea to cut down on variance in monster pots.
2. It helps keep the game friendly...creating bad vibes at the table is -EV. If someone wants to do business, refusing seems to be rude.
3. If we do business with everyone, they may be more willing to do business with you. This could enable us to play our combo draws more aggressively, giving us greater FE -- if we show a 12+-out draw, they'll be more likely to run it twice when they call.
4. If you're at a good table and busting people out of the game means the game is more likely to break up, it might be a good idea to give someone a shot at keeping their last 50 BBs if it means you can play another hour and possibly get that fish's 250 BBs.
Here are some situations that came up in last night's session:
1. I was all-in on the flop, freerolling with TPTK + nut flush draw vs. TPTK, I asked the guy if he wanted to run it 3 times. With a chop likely, I figured it was my most profitable situation. He refused and I hit the flush on the turn.
2. After raising preflop, I check-raised a guy all-in for his last 60 BBs on the flop. When he called I flipped and asked if he had a flush draw, and if he wanted to run it twice. He showed and was badly outkicked (AQ vs. A6) and said he'd like to run it three times. He is a good player who ran into some coolers and then made a couple of tilty calls, and he's a regular and a pretty decent guy. I wanted to appear generous because at this point I was running over the table (had 650 BBs). I also happened to have a backdoor flush draw, so a club on the turn would leave him with 2 outs. I agreed and won all three times.
3. When the table got to be shorthanded I agreed to run it twice vs. shortstack all-ins when I had a big edge (AK vs. AT preflop; top pair vs. OESD on the flop). Busting a player out seemed likely to end the game.
Comments?
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Ravageur
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Official Montreal SwampRat
Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 1,242
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hmm..whenever i play live (it's usually 5/10 and under though) the dealer's don't let us run it even twice let alone 3 times because it slows down game = less rake.
Seems like you have good reasons to want to do it though and it's always funner to gambool with more turn/river cards so i don't see why it'd be bad.
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Family Cruise IMO
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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the only negative I can see to running twice or any other non insurance business is that you may end up with less FE. For example someone might be more likely to call on a drawy flop with an over pair knowing that you'll run it twice with them rather than having to gamble once for a whole stack. That's especially true live at lower limits since they may not have another BI.
Durr would not run it twice/take the last bet back once vs barry on HSP in a HUGE pot and the only reason I could see was that he wanted the table to know if you put the money in you're only getting one shot no matter how much you're flipping for.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by drmcboy
the only negative I can see to running twice or any other non insurance business is that you may end up with less FE. For example someone might be more likely to call on a drawy flop with an over pair knowing that you'll run it twice with them rather than having to gamble once for a whole stack. That's especially true live at lower limits since they may not have another BI.
Durr would not run it twice/take the last bet back once vs barry on HSP in a HUGE pot and the only reason I could see was that he wanted the table to know if you put the money in you're only getting one shot no matter how much you're flipping for.
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I think you got the story backwards. Barry is a traditionalist and HE insisted you run it once only. And he accepted the result (losing a $1M pot) like a man.
In any event, you should always run it multiple times if you have the opprortunity, because it slices your variance.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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he asked durr to take the last bet back.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHgquInNM14&feature=fvsr
just before 4 minutes
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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i did think of one good reason not to run it twice - if you know your opp tilts after he loses a big pot, since presumably you'll handle the loss better than he will.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Durrr asked Barry to run it twice and he declined, in another hand.
Barry then asked Durrr to take like 200k off the pot in the aforementioned hand, which is totally different than running it twice, Durrr declined.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
In any event, you should always run it multiple times if you have the opprortunity, because it slices your variance.
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You should never run it twice if you have a sufficient enough bankroll to absorb the swings of that game. If you're taking a shot or don't have enough BI to absorb the swings of the game then you should be more inclined to run it multiple times.
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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muzzard I know what you're saying, embrace variance FTW and all.
but why would the best players in the world be inclined to do this then? they're obviously rolled for it.
I find that I tilt much less often live than online. I am more inclined to run it twice if I'm the bigger stack -- if I'm down or close to a BI on the table, I might as well double or buy back/go home. If I'm a bigger stack,the advantage to keeping the big stack is usually worth it. I'm also more inclined to run it twice if I'm ahead...if I'm shoving KQ on a JTx flop and get called by AJ then I was obviously gambooling it up anyway.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by baudib
but why would the best players in the world be inclined to do this then? they're obviously rolled for it.
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I think you'll find in a lot of the TV cash games they aren't rolled for it, coz they are so big. Either that or they are staked anyway and only have like 1 or 2 buyins.
I'm not saying nobody is rolled, a few of them are, but equally a few of them arent.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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It's certainly +EV to embrace variance when you are getting EV along with your variance. I'd rather play in a high-variance game with a big roll and a long term higher +EV than a low-variance game with a long term lower +EV.
But running it once adds no EV at all. Over time, you will make exactly the same amount of money running it once as running it twice. So you might as well decrease your variance, because variance WITHOUT an increase of EV sucks.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
Over time, you will make exactly the same amount of money running it once as running it twice. .
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That is not true
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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yes that's correct and my comment about the freerollin' hand is obviously wrong and stupid, my EV is the same.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by baudib
yes that's correct and my comment about the freerollin' hand is obviously wrong and stupid, my EV is the same.
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No the EV is not the same as the odds of winning the second hand will change as the first turn and river are delt (if your all in on the flop). So you won't be expected to win (Expected Value) the same in both board 1 and board 2 as the equity will have changed.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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No the EV is not the same as the odds of winning the second hand will change as the first turn and river are delt (if your all in on the flop). So you won't be expected to win (Expected Value) the same in both board 1 and board 2 as the equity will have changed.
It will change, however, it will change in one direction if you hit the first board, and the other direction if you miss. And the rate of change in each direction will be proportionate to the likelihood of you hitting the first board.
Which makes the total change in EV zero.
Here's a simple example. You have AA, villain has JJ, and the board is J972 rainbow. You have 2 outs on the river.
If you run it once, your equity is 2/44th (1/22nd) of the pot.
If you run it twice, your equity the first go around is 1/2 of 2/44th of the pot, or 1/44th.
Your equity the second go around? Well, the 42/44ths of the time you miss the first board, your equity will be 1/2 of 2/43rd of the second pot, or 2/86th of it.
The 2/44th of the time that you hit the first board, your equity will be 1/2 of 1/43rd of the second pot, or 1/86th of it.
Now, let's work out the math:
Running it once:
Equity = 1/22 = 4.55 percent
Running it twice
Equity = 1/44 + ((21/22) x (1/43)) + ((1/22) x (1/86)) = 4.55 percent
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Hah, you guys fell into the trap of arguing with LawDude... Although he is right this time.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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sk8r_daniel
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 330
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Law Dudes math makes my head hurt so i just assume its right.
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JKDS
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
MAAAAAAATHHHHHHHHHHS
Which makes the total change in EV zero.
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well hot damn, i am now always running it twice.
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idfk
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Two Pair
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Melboure, Australia
Posts: 28
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Math is math, but personally I will never under ANY circumstances at the casino run it twice if I was offered the choice. Fortunately for me I will never be faced with this down in Australia since we run it once only.
The only advantage of running it twice is if you are behind when you're chips get into the middle. If you are faced with a multi-drawn board then you need to learn to make the right decision and give credit to your opponents range and let go of anything less than a set.
In either situation for me I do not see any value in running it twice. If someone outplays me or outdraws me then I just learn from it and move on....
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Jepulator
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
No the EV is not the same as the odds of winning the second hand will change as the first turn and river are delt (if your all in on the flop). So you won't be expected to win (Expected Value) the same in both board 1 and board 2 as the equity will have changed.
It will change, however, it will change in one direction if you hit the first board, and the other direction if you miss. And the rate of change in each direction will be proportionate to the likelihood of you hitting the first board.
Which makes the total change in EV zero.
Here's a simple example. You have AA, villain has JJ, and the board is J972 rainbow. You have 2 outs on the river.
If you run it once, your equity is 2/44th (1/22nd) of the pot.
If you run it twice, your equity the first go around is 1/2 of 2/44th of the pot, or 1/44th.
Your equity the second go around? Well, the 42/44ths of the time you miss the first board, your equity will be 1/2 of 2/43rd of the second pot, or 2/86th of it.
The 2/44th of the time that you hit the first board, your equity will be 1/2 of 1/43rd of the second pot, or 1/86th of it.
Now, let's work out the math:
Running it once:
Equity = 1/22 = 4.55 percent
Running it twice
Equity = 1/44 + ((21/22) x (1/43)) + ((1/22) x (1/86)) = 4.55 percent
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woo hooo thats a lot of math! lol very interesting tho, never realized it was the same!
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