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Discussion of live play - How do you talk to this guy?!

  
 
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dev
Old 05-25-2008, 12:19 AM     Post subject: Discussion of live play - How do you talk to this guy?! #1 (permalink)  
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A very good friend of mine is a soul reader. I mean this guy can rip a stranger's game apart after watching just a few hands. It's really something to watch. Here's the issue: he's one of these live players that thinks short term and long term are somehow opposites.

Below is a transcript from a conversation I just had with him. I changed names, etc. to protect the innocent or something.


7:19 PM me: so... there's a cheap game in -some place- tonight
7:21 PM him: Im looking for cheap women tonite actually
:/
me: there you go
It sucks, I'm pretty broke
7:22 PM him: Yeah i know the feeling

-me talking about different options for games-
7:26 PM him: I wish i had answers for yah
7:27 PM The only thing i have is as many bust out stories as you do
me: well, the same problems keep repeating themselves... the solution is a bankroll. I need to straighten out my game online, and straighten out my head about the live ones im playing
7:28 PM him: One thing you dont do that always worked in the past
Buy in 150
Play aggressive
If you lose it
Buy in 6
Erm
300
Play aggressive
If you lose it
me: martingale for poker?
7:29 PM him: Then buy in 6
me: dude I'm broke.
so it'd be like, buy in $5
him: I know u are
me: if you lose it buy in $10
:P
him: But when u have cash u still dont do it
me: because you're garanteed to lose.
him: You have to buy enough to matter
7:30 PM me: there is an optimal buyin, and a risk of ruin based on your bankroll and your edge
him: Nope
me: the problem is that we've always severely underestimated the chances of going broke.
SEVERELY
7:31 PM him: Math leaves u broke as often as everything else- every other strategy
me: because I've never actually followed it.
him: One reason i lost infrequently back then is i did exactly what i just described
7:32 PM me: but when you do lose playing that way, it's a big, hard loss
him: U can still lose
Nothings foolproof
Right but
Its not as frequent
And if u win the important hand u get all your money back
7:33 PM And u can play big stack poker at very low risk
Sitting with 600 in a 1-2 game is great to play a lot of hands against bad opponents
7:34 PM And if theres a guy that has sucked out on you several times u just have to catch him right once
Break him
Rather than try and double 2-3 times to get everything back
1-2-4-8 would probly work
7:35 PM me: well, that's part of the problem, you don't "Get it back". You never get it back. that's totally the wrong way to look at it. it's chasing. it's illogical.
him: Cuz logic so often works in our favor after all

me: ok, im just gonna go pray to the poker gods or something
maybe ill get aces or something
7:36 PM him: Nah
me: ill grab a horse-shoe
and a rabbits foot
him: Has nothing to do with that
But rigid math... Meh
You're talking about expected earn and hand value in games so poor that they hardly apply
7:37 PM Q2 has the same expected value as AA in a game where people are horribly aeful after the flop
Sorry to say heh
Because u can get the whole stack with either
7:38 PM They arent gonna think about minimizing losses
Playing small pots with 1 pair
The guys u play are so bad- just show them 2 pair for all their chips
7:39 PM You're forgetting that you can call 6 dollars preflop with 63s and 400 can go in on a flop
7:40 PM Wtf is that
A lot of the time yo play strategies that assume the other players have some level of skill or even a selected style
7:41 PM Whats -Mr D-'s style? Changes monthly.
-Mr. R-?
Same
-Mr. A- is just so bad it doesnt matter
-Mrs. R- - never know there either
me: not really
they all have specific errors they make constantly
-Mr D-'s style doesn't change monthly, it changes drinkly.
7:42 PM him: Right but one night someones calling off a million dollars on a draw
Then the next night they're a nit
They're "running good"
Lol
7:43 PM It used to be that we would do anything we had to do to bust guys out
Either play tight
Flop a set
7:44 PM Play LAG push them off flops
me: i think i always played lagg in those games
7:45 PM him: Well to a degree you were laggy
I was more tag in certain games
Lag in others
7:46 PM The thing i used to like to do in high vol games is only play pots where i knew i was vastly ahead
Then play them for all my chips
7:47 PM Of course if i had a 500dollar stack and a superdraw i'd play it the same as a set or 2 pr
Esp if the other guy in the pot had an averge buy in (100-150)
So it looked like maniac play
7:48 PM But it wasnt really
But against a big big stack i'd have a big hand and let them think its a draw
me: everything logical looks maniac to these people.
him: They're idiots and u give their game too much credit
7:49 PM me: how so?
him: If you're gonna get everything in- make sure you have the nut draw as well as a strong hand. Dont be the guy calling all in to defend
7:50 PM Like have middle pair, ace kicker that beats the boad, and the nut flush draw
Agaisnt top pair
7:51 PM Remember "i have the best hand but by how much. Is there a better spot?"
Because u cant handle volatility at all
If u got a 5k roll- fine let the math try and work for yo
U
me: it's a volitile game, you can't get away from that
there's no 0 variance game
7:52 PM there's not even a really low variance game
blackjack has lower variance than poker man
him: I know but playing a 600 dollar pot with a total idiot that will play the same pot with a near hopeless hand later
Take the better opportunity
7:53 PM Run good run bad fine
A major difference is you know when to get your whole stack involved
And they dont
7:54 PM Swap mistakes
7:55 PM Make mistakes preflop because their postflop game is abyssmal
7:56 PM People dont want to fold to you- remember that too
me: oh i know
him: So if u do flop 2 pair to their 1 pair, they're fucked
7:57 PM me: this isn't exactly news to me.
i can get my money in good, I do it all the time.
him: Yeh i know but sometimes u need a mental tune up
7:58 PM How good
Loose pre- tight post
7:59 PM These guys will never put you all in- so why not
You rarely have a tough decision
Just run bad
Check out my self-deprecation here!
 
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BankItDrew
Old 05-25-2008, 06:25 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 He's referring to a really popular general gambling strategy. Roulette for example: our goal is to win $10. So, we put 10 on red, if lose - 20 on red, if lose - 40 on red, if lose - 80 on red etc. or you can do the 1st and 12 betting strategy as well, it works the same way but with different multiplications.

Anyways, don't do it. I've actually seen professional gamblers on television shows explain that this strategy requires a huge bankroll, first of all. Secondly, we are risking a lot for too little.

Interesting side note stat from the same show: 70% of all players in the b&m casino (from all games) eventually are up at one point or another by $50. I have no reason to disbelieve this stat just yet. So I figure, the trick when it comes to -EV games, is to set yourself a low goal (ex. $50) and leave the building.
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Old 05-25-2008, 05:14 PM #3 (permalink)  
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It's called martingale strategy. I figured he'd know better considering he was a blackjack dealer...

My real question in this thread is how do you get thru to someone who is really stuck in a short-term mindset?
Check out my self-deprecation here!
 
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BankItDrew
Old 05-25-2008, 06:05 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Obviously you can try, but you cannot make anyone change. I've tried to explain our long-term thinking to my brother for years regarding poker, but to no avail. I truly believe that looking long-term requires discipline, discipline requires motivation from within - not external forces such as you and me.

Sort of like a junkie, whereby the addict will not change their poor habits for the better until they really want to.


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Old 05-25-2008, 08:37 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Obviously you can try, but you cannot make anyone change. I've tried to explain our long-term thinking to my brother for years regarding poker, but to no avail. I truly believe that looking long-term requires discipline, discipline requires motivation from within - not external forces such as you and me.

Sort of like a junkie, whereby the addict will not change their poor habits for the better until they really want to.
how many psychologists does it take to change a light bulb?

only one, but the light bulb has to want to change.

The internal motivation aspect gives me an idea. He was a theology major :P
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Robb
Old 05-26-2008, 12:45 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dev
Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Obviously you can try, but you cannot make anyone change. I've tried to explain our long-term thinking to my brother for years regarding poker, but to no avail. I truly believe that looking long-term requires discipline, discipline requires motivation from within - not external forces such as you and me.

Sort of like a junkie, whereby the addict will not change their poor habits for the better until they really want to.
how many psychologists does it take to change a light bulb?

only one, but the light bulb has to want to change.

The internal motivation aspect gives me an idea. He was a theology major :P
Give him the ol' Spoonitnow combo.

1. I'm advising you, because you're my friend, to play within reasonable bankroll guidelines. Quit playing poker like a horse's ass.

And if you refuse...

2. I'm thanking you for being a great friend and donating to the poker economy.
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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dev
Old 05-26-2008, 05:11 PM #7 (permalink)  
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nice.
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swiggidy
Old 05-27-2008, 03:27 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dev
My real question in this thread is how do you get thru to someone who is really stuck in a short-term mindset?
I don't try. If the person isn't ready to learn it's not worth the trouble.
(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")
 
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pankfish
Old 05-27-2008, 04:09 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Old 05-27-2008, 04:10 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Oh yeah, about your guy. He thinks he is right and you are wrong. There really isn't much you can say to him. If in two years you are ballin and playing in 10-20 games and taking vacations around the world maybe he will come around.
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MehFU
Old 05-27-2008, 05:07 PM #11 (permalink)  
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personally im a big fan of the show em a big hand and then bluff strategically all night game waiting for a monster. it must be a MMMMMONSTER tho ie super nuts or close to it preferably a split full.
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Old 05-27-2008, 05:09 PM #12 (permalink)  
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sorry on the subject explain to him the old proverb about if u get it in as 70% favorite 3x ur the favorite to get busted badger.
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dev
Old 05-27-2008, 06:11 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MehFU
sorry on the subject explain to him the old proverb about if u get it in as 70% favorite 3x ur the favorite to get busted badger.
didn't know that was an old proverb, but it would actually be 2x. (.7*.7=.49)
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BankItDrew
Old 05-27-2008, 06:44 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dev
Quote:
Originally Posted by MehFU
sorry on the subject explain to him the old proverb about if u get it in as 70% favorite 3x ur the favorite to get busted badger.
it would actually be 2x. (.7*.7=.49)
nh
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bigteif
Old 05-27-2008, 07:38 PM #15 (permalink)  
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short term this guys strategy makes sense. He's pretty much just saying if he loses he wants to be deep against these guys because they are such donks. Whats proper bankroll management is it buy ins or is it BB. If you can buy in with 200BB and play deep stacked why not. I'm no expert on bankrolls but his strategy sounds like a great ideas for these games. You lose 100BB because they think your a maniac but then you buy in for 200BB and don't play like a maniac but you endup getting there intital 100BB plus yours back. I do not see what is wrong with this strategy if you are bankrolled accordingly.
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Old 05-27-2008, 08:03 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigteif
short term this guys strategy makes sense. He's pretty much just saying if he loses he wants to be deep against these guys because they are such donks. Whats proper bankroll management is it buy ins or is it BB. If you can buy in with 200BB and play deep stacked why not. I'm no expert on bankrolls but his strategy sounds like a great ideas for these games. You lose 100BB because they think your a maniac but then you buy in for 200BB and don't play like a maniac but you endup getting there intital 100BB plus yours back. I do not see what is wrong with this strategy if you are bankrolled accordingly.
So basically what you're saying is if we can somehow teach you what bankroll management is about then we take whatever pushes you over the edge and apply that to my friend.
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bigteif
Old 05-27-2008, 08:11 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dev
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigteif
short term this guys strategy makes sense. He's pretty much just saying if he loses he wants to be deep against these guys because they are such donks. Whats proper bankroll management is it buy ins or is it BB. If you can buy in with 200BB and play deep stacked why not. I'm no expert on bankrolls but his strategy sounds like a great ideas for these games. You lose 100BB because they think your a maniac but then you buy in for 200BB and don't play like a maniac but you endup getting there intital 100BB plus yours back. I do not see what is wrong with this strategy if you are bankrolled accordingly.
So basically what you're saying is if we can somehow teach you what bankroll management is about then we take whatever pushes you over the edge and apply that to my friend.
Pretty much that is what I was getting at. My thing is if he does go broke say he has 2k and will he be willing to take a break and work to get his money back. If he has a constant cash flow then he's playing with in his limits correct? Lets say he play 200nl and I don't know details but if he keeps playing then while he is still only playing 200nl he can play that. Does he make money or lose money long term. If he wants to think short term let him think short term. The only reason I'm playing poker is short term and it's fun. I don't plan to make a career out of it. If he does then maybe he does need proper management.
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Old 05-28-2008, 05:49 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigteif
Quote:
Originally Posted by dev
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigteif
short term this guys strategy makes sense. He's pretty much just saying if he loses he wants to be deep against these guys because they are such donks. Whats proper bankroll management is it buy ins or is it BB. If you can buy in with 200BB and play deep stacked why not. I'm no expert on bankrolls but his strategy sounds like a great ideas for these games. You lose 100BB because they think your a maniac but then you buy in for 200BB and don't play like a maniac but you endup getting there intital 100BB plus yours back. I do not see what is wrong with this strategy if you are bankrolled accordingly.
So basically what you're saying is if we can somehow teach you what bankroll management is about then we take whatever pushes you over the edge and apply that to my friend.
Pretty much that is what I was getting at. My thing is if he does go broke say he has 2k and will he be willing to take a break and work to get his money back. If he has a constant cash flow then he's playing with in his limits correct? Lets say he play 200nl and I don't know details but if he keeps playing then while he is still only playing 200nl he can play that. Does he make money or lose money long term. If he wants to think short term let him think short term. The only reason I'm playing poker is short term and it's fun. I don't plan to make a career out of it. If he does then maybe he does need proper management.
For me it's kind of a waste of talent situation. He gets really frustrated over things that don't even effect me because I play within a bankroll. I'm a bit of a math geek, and I trust the math. For whatever reason, logic eludes him and he doesn't trust the law of large numbers.
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bigteif
Old 05-28-2008, 06:23 AM #19 (permalink)  
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See what people never post is the math behind having a large bankroll what is it and what is the law of large numbers.
 
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