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stinger
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10-14-2009, 12:41 AM
Post subject: Chasing
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#1 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Missouri
Posts: 57
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Why do so many players chase flushes.
Last night I watched several players chase flushes to the river calling on the way some large bets.
Also why do they chase with small cards. One player called went all the way to the river holding 2-7 and was beat by a player holding 10-7.
I can see calling with the nuts A,K,Q, but to call with small cards when the odds of making the flush is 1-5 and then if you do you dont have the nuts.
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L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
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10-14-2009, 12:56 AM
Post subject: Re: Chasing
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#2 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 834
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Because they do not know how to properly calculate pot odds or implied odds.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by stinger
Why do so many players chase flushes.
I can see calling with the nuts A,K,Q, but to call with small cards when the odds of making the flush is 1-5 and then if you do you dont have the nuts.
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Incorrect.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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You need to play some limit. It will teach you (1) when it is proper to chase a flush, and (2) how often your smaller flush is beaten by a bigger one.
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stinger
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Missouri
Posts: 57
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I dont chase.
It amazes me how many do.
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stinger
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Missouri
Posts: 57
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I dont chase.
It amazes me how many do.
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JKDS
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by stinger
I dont chase.
It amazes me how many do.
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why
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
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tugger
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Worcestershire, England
Posts: 221
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My opinion (there's my disclaimer) -
If we flop a flush draw, then the odds of making a flush on the turn 9 in 47, just over 1 in 5. That means that is someone bets a quarter of the pot, then we have five to one on our money, and we only need to hit once in five hands to break even. So it's not always bad to call a flush draw, sometimes it's bad to fold it. It depends on how much is bet and how big the pot is.
You should chase when the pot odds are correct and the implied odds are real. Implied odds are how much more you're getting him to pay after you make your hand, so if you obviously have a flush, or if he only has bottom pair, or if either of you are short stacked, this effects the implied odds, and as such your pot odds need to be more accurate.
If someone bets a quarter of the pot and you have a flush draw, it's the right price. Call.
If someone bets half the pot, you need to decide if you're getting paid off if you hit. Look at his stack. Look at yours. Put him on a range, and decide how likely it is he'll fold if you make your hand. If you think he'll put more money in even if the flush completes, then by all means call.
If someone bets more than half the pot, it's probably a fold, though you could raise. Calling is not an option unless you have a straight draw too, or perhaps two overs to the board, something to give your hand more equity, but even then we might not have live overcards. Caution is required here, and more often than not you should be folding flush draws to 70% bets and bigger.
Of course, if you think he has flush draw, then bet 70% of pot or more, that way even if he calls, it's good for you long term, because he can't make his flush every time. You'll win two in three of these pots at the river, having made him pay a bad price on two streets, and the one in three where the flush completes, then fold to big bets, and call small bets, thus keeping his implied odds to a minimum. Long term, this is profit.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Thanks, Tugger, for giving the standard poker theory answer on flush draws. Good stuff.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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By the way, on the question of smaller vs. larger flushes, my Poker Tracker says that I win 78 percent of the flushes I take to showdown. And the 22 percent I lose includes hands I lose to a full house or quads as well as hands lost to a higher flush or a straight flush. It also includes hands where I lost a 4 card flush to a higher 4 card flush (which is more common than losing a 3 card flush to a higher 3 card flush).
Thus, the vast, vast majority of flushes, even weak ones, hold up.
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tugger
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Worcestershire, England
Posts: 221
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
Thanks, Tugger, for giving the standard poker theory answer on flush draws. Good stuff.
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I think that's a compliment, isn't it? I translate that as "good advice". Haha. Cheers.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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It was a compliment. This thread needed some sound, ABC advice on flush chasing. Your post hit the mark perfectly.
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