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200nl, Reppin that flush against a decent player with a weak range

  
 
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surviva316
Old 04-30-2010, 07:16 AM     Post subject: 200nl, Reppin that flush against a decent player with a weak range #1 (permalink)  
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CO is a reg at this casino--knows all the dealer's names, etc. he is very confident in his game, and i would consider him much better than average at hand reading for a live player, though i can't recall why i felt this way. he is also confident enough in his game to play pretty weak holdings preflop (saw him take a call PFR/call 3b line with 65o OTB). i've seen him make these type of small blocking/thin value bets on multiple streets wtih JJ on an A-high board and i think in another hand where the board ran out bad for his single pair hand, and i've seen him semi-bluff a more standard size.

my image is still pretty clean, though i'd been opening for 10 preflop enough for people to comment on it and had taken down more than my fair share of pots with cbets. in an earlier hand, i double barrel shoved on a T-high two-toned flop and J turn and the CO in this hand was saying he bet i had air because i asked villain to count her chips before the turn fell and then insta shoved the turn (i actually turned TPTK). so i guess CO is "onto me" so to say, even if he was wrong about that particular hand.

BU is a typical live donk. limps too much pre, calls too much pre, chases draws and doesn't like the pot to get too big when she has single paired hands. you know the drill.

god, single tabling is awesome for attaining reads lol. onto the hand:

Hero is dealt in the HJ and it folds to me.
I open for $10 with a $700 stack, CO calls with $200-250 in his stack and BU calls with about $150 in her stack.

Flop ($33) comes

I think for a second and cbet for $20 and both villains call.

Turn ($93) comes

I think for a bit and check with a contemplative look on my face (I make it clear i'm not just giving up on the hand). CO bets $15, BU calls without hesitation (never considered raising and never considered folding), and i tank a bit. it's obvious that i'm recounting the pot and doing some math in my head and so forth and finally announce a call.

River ($138) comes

I check relatively quickly (quick for me at least), CO bets $30, and BU quickly folds. Hero raises to $95.

Comments on all 3 streets are welcome
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Fnord
Old 04-30-2010, 05:14 PM #2 (permalink)  
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If you were on a flush draw, you would have snapped the turn. Also mixed feeling about the river bet size.

Meh meh meh. I think I'd just double or tripple this board.
 
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surviva316
Old 04-30-2010, 09:05 PM #3 (permalink)  
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could you elaborate on your mixed feelings about the sizing? i actually made it 80 irl, and i don't know how i feel about that either. shoving seems really excessive to get him off a second pair/A2o type hand, when villain prolly doesn't know much about pot odds.

in spite of my reads on villain, i don't much expect any live player to have the balls to call with a A2o and worse here, which is mainly what i put him on, unless my line just seems COMPLETELY unbelievable. but i almost never play live, so that's why this thread exists.

just giving you my thought process, so that i can be corrected where appropriate
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Fnord
Old 05-01-2010, 02:01 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
could you elaborate on your mixed feelings about the sizing? i actually made it 80 irl, and i don't know how i feel about that either. shoving seems really excessive to get him off a second pair/A2o type hand, when villain prolly doesn't know much about pot odds.
A shove is about a pot sized raise. You should be willing to make the ultimate threat to give your earlier street bets more implied threat and punish this player for trying to hand read you with weak holdings. If he values money, all-in will be a lot harder for him to call unless he's one of those guys that thinks a value bet is more dangerous than a big, scary bet. If that's the case, nice level!

I thought about this on the way to work after posting. If I was the other guy, I'd heavily discount a flush because of your turn tank and river line. I'm thinking 2 broadways without an Ace (Tx fits), maybe a set you played funny, maybe a flush draw you played funny. Ten Six is about the only non-bluff hand that fits your line. All that said, even though hand reading says you're FoS here a lot, I may not back it up with cash if I just don't think you bluff enough or something else makes me think you have a hand in spite of your total bullshit line.

....my 2 chips.
 
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KoRnholio
Old 05-01-2010, 03:41 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Yeah, given that the pot is already $120 on the turn, facing a $15 call, it's a no brainer with any 8+ out draw (Flush, or QJ/J9/97). I like hollywooding to deceive the fish as much as the next guy, but you have to make it a story that they will believe.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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Rupeni
Old 05-12-2010, 11:20 PM #6 (permalink)  
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its the $15 bet on the turn by CO that makes me think this is a bad play.... maybe he folds to a shove for sure, but you've gotta ask why he's taking the initiative with a pretty low bet with a flush draw out there, if he's like you say, not a bad player... he wants to keep the pot going with something half decent doesn't he? just can't see him folding to 80 after this action... unless you got a read that he's floating, just think he's only folding a bluff here
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surviva316
Old 05-13-2010, 01:58 AM #7 (permalink)  
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well obv i think he has something medium strength. i leveled myself with the 80 bet sizing for sure, that's why i posted it as 95. shoving def seems best. i just got cocky and thought he would snap fold anything weak made hand to this line regardless of sizing (and though sizing made it look even more like a flush trying to keep him in)
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