1/2NL: Bad Call pre against Old Nit...Now Bluff?

From the history you have with the villain, sounds like you have very little fold equity, if any. If this guy is gunning for you he's not folding aces up or AK, especially if he's drawing to a better flush. I think your estimate of Villain's range is correct and the reverse implied odds are killer if he has AK with a spade. I think it's a fold. Unless he's bluffing, I don't think he's folding a made hand, even for stacks.

Flop might be a fold but I can't fold on the turn. I'd expect him to bet bigger with a bigger spade or AK+. Old nits are often terribad postflop. If the river brings a fourth spade and he bets $50+ I'd fold but let's use position here and see a card.

reverse implied odds are killer

Finding it hard to disagree with this, I think turn is a fold.

There are no RIO when I never plan in putting another dime in the pot when my hand improves.

Originally Posted by surviva316

There are no RIO when I never plan in putting another dime in the pot when my hand improves.

Can't argue with that. I'd be paying off a bet if I hit flush, straight or trips.

I can't believe you're gonna get this guy to fold a set though, not unless we're gonna bet a scare river, but then those RIO are creeping back in. I can only see him folding turn with AK no spade, maybe, and AQ, which we block. The rest either has strong showdown value or is drawing to the nuts.

Yeah I think I really wanted to post this hand to get an idea of what the old nit's range is.

If it includes AK with no spades and AsQx, then I think we can pretty clearly raise turn and get enough folds on the turn to justify that play and then barrel a blank river and get folds close to 50% of the time (6 combos of AsQx+AsKx, 1 combo of AKss, 6 combos of sets).

But we're dealing with an old nit here in a big pot with an obvious draw hitting the turn, so can we put him on like ONE combos of flush and assume that that's pretty much what he has here, and sprinkle in some thin vbets with top set (lol)?

Maybe we can sprinkle in some combos of AK with at least one spade in it because he's angry at the turn card and he has TPTK+GSSD+FD, so "fuck this kid and fuck this turn card: I'm betting!" (fwiw, I didn't get any reads on the fact that he was frustrated while betting the turn, but I'm not exactly Mike Cairo either).

And even if he DOES have some AK/AQ with at least one spade in his range, it's tough to gauge how he'll respond to a turn raise, and I don't think that's enough combos to be able to barrel any rivers profitably, and I'm still going to make a mistake at least every once in a while on rivers that improve my hand (either folding the best hand or calling more when I'm behind).

Anyway, this thread is here so that live regs can teach me some about old nits. Surely they just always have it, even if "it" is only one combo?

i think you may be surprised how comparitively stationy these old nits can be postflop. i've found most cant hand read at all and have no concept of relative hand strength. i wouldnt expect him to fold a hand as weak as AK at any point from here on in regardless of your line, except for the times the river brings the 4th spade and he doesn't have one.

Naaaaah, this is the type of guy who sits at the table talking about how "If you don't take it down preflop with AK, then that hand just becomes trouble." This dude's not thrilled about single pair on this board.

then you may have a case. seems pretty marginal though and the slightest miscalculation in villains tendencies can be a massive loss/gain of EV because we are dealing with so few hand combinations. kudos to you if you can accurately pick up on these kind of spots and harvest some EV there though!

Live nits, especially old nits, are different than online nits who grind out meager profits online because they can bet/fold good hands. so I agree with RPM there.

I think his turn bet is more of a blocker and would be surprised if he has AKss here.

A 2/3 PSB blocker IP?

You're right I screwed up the positions. Sorta makes me wanna fold.

call pre, call flop, call turn. You are putting way too much emphasis on him folding KQhh, which you and I see as a great hand, but he sees as a hand that is behind A2o or 66.

call ~ $35 on blank/K rivers

My read that he's an old nit isn't based on the KQhh hand. I was moreso mentioning the KQ hand as an example of my image/table dynamic.

Also, limp/folding KQs IP is not a typical LLSNL play, especially when I have the image of iso'ing two limpers pre and showing down Q7o.

Regardless of whether he's a nit or not, live players don't vbet AT- here (which isn't in his preflop range anyway), and I don't really know how much we're expecting him to be bluffing.