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1/2 small overpair

  
 
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kfaess
Old 03-03-2009, 06:10 AM     Post subject: 1/2 small overpair #1 (permalink)  
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 haven't played with opponent before but from the hands I've seen so far he plays like a solid tag would at 50NL or 100NL (just guessing since I've never played these stakes online), although he does sometimes mix it up PF and play stuff like 45o.

My image is really tight PF, sort of aggressive post flop but maybe a few questionable plays.

I have about $165 and he covers easily.

He is either UTG or UTG+1 and I'm two seats to his left. He makes it $10 to go PF. I call. Everyone else folds. The reason I called is that everyone at this table loves calling raises PF, so I figured I'd be getting good odds for a set and would get paid often when I hit.

Flop comes 682hh (or something very similar). He leads for $20. At this point I think its very likely he has over cards, an over pair, set, rarely a FD. I wasn't this specific at the table but lets say his range could be [AA-77, AJ+, KQ] stoving it up I have about 35% equity. I call assuming I still have decent equity against his range. It might be a little wider but at the table I thought he'd be opening pretty tight from UTG.

Turn comes 9 non heart. He leads for $45. I still have an over pair and really wanted to call this bet (for no real logical reason). A good range here I think is [AA-66, AK, AQ] I really don't think he's drawing at all here. I call because I sort of get wrapped up in the thought of winning a big pot and because I still have an overpair (wasn't thinking much about his range and his perception of me). Also note that I took a good deal of time in deciding whether to call the turn bet or not.

River comes basically another blank, like a 3s. So the board is now 68293 no flush possible. He leads again for $65. I start to really think about what he could have here. I'm not sure he would lead KK 3 streets, and I think its unlikely he would do this for QQ and lower (non-set). I figured at the table that the % of the time he would lead 3 streets into me with a bluff was low, so I'm probably beat by a set or AA, maybe KK. Still haven't folded.

I asked him if he has 88. He gives me a nod and a look like, sorry kid that's too bad. Then he says he'll show if I fold. I take this to be genuine and decide to fold.

Now that I've actually gone back and looked at the hand, I think his range is very narrow on the river. I'd say its [AA, maybe KK, 88, 99, AK as a bluff]

Things that I didn't notice at the table that I now realize (also results):
-when I took a long time to call the turn bet and given how tight I am preflop, he probably put me on TT-QQ.
-when someone tells you they'll show if you fold, they probably want you to fold.
-With all this information I think its more likely that he is bluffing AK/AQ here since he pretty much knows our hand, and since AK/AQ is much more probable of a hand than AA/set, maybe its a call?
-If I had actually analyzed every aspect of the hand at the table like I did here I may have been able to make the call.
-He flipped over AK

Dunno if my thoughts are way off here, let me know what you guys think.

Side note: How do I create pictures of cards in the post?
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Fnord
Old 03-03-2009, 07:19 AM #2 (permalink)  
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What do you have in the hole?

Tough spot, I'm usually done after the flop or turn barring more information.

Pick on someone smaller than you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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kfaess
Old 03-03-2009, 05:21 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 lol did I forget to say what I have? I had TT. I guess this is a pretty easy fold unless I have reads.

Quote:
Pick on someone smaller than you.
This is def a good idea. I'd rather just take the fishes money.
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Fnord
Old 03-03-2009, 05:44 PM #4 (permalink)  
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This spot is pretty read driven. Pre-flop is really standard and I'm almost always calling the flop bet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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kfaess
Old 03-03-2009, 10:43 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 ok well I guess I can remember this hand for when I see this guy again.

Do you ever act at the table? For example next time I'm in a similar situation against this guy with AA/set I could act like I have a lower over pair and induce bluffs?
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