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baudib
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05-15-2010, 07:24 PM
Post subject: $1/$2 trips good kicker raised on river
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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history: Villain was playing wildly drunk earlier in the night, 4-bet shoving 55 pre over the tightest player at the table (who had AA). Hero had felted him earlier when he led out with a straight in a limped pot and villain check-raised all-in with top pair; I had won a decent sized pot earlier against him by making a fairly tough call when rivering a set on a board that had 4 to broadway. my sense was that he was sobering up and starting to play tighter but he was also chasing money.
Three limpers at 8-handed table, hero is on the button with   and raises to $10.
2 call.
Flop is:   
Two checks, Hero bets $18, 1 call from EP, 1 fold.
Hero has $650 and EP has $450ish.
Turn: 
EP checks, Hero bets $45, EP calls.
River: 
Hero bets $100, Villain raises to $275
Is this an easy call because he's repping so few combos of hands, or is it tougher because by the river my hand has to look exactly like an 8 and he can't exactly be value-raising too many worse combos.... he knows I would probably lead a monster on the flop from the straight hand and also knows I have called him down on a scary board before.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Fuck, you know he's got a monster here too. Off the top of my head, I think it's a call too because like 89off is in his range. But so are full houses and A8.
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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Oh,man.There's no way I'd think about folding this against a drunk wild player at casino.You beat sooo many trips with lower kicker on this nice river not to mention that he could be bluffing here although it's unlikely given your bet sizing.
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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I'm going to discount QQ because if he can have QQ he can have KK/AA too, I think? I'm not sure if stove really helps here...it's reasonable to think this isn't really his river C-R range....
Board: 8h 8d 2s 4c Qd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 44.00% 06.00% 11 1.50 { 44, 22, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 86s+, A8o, K8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 1: 50.000% 44.00% 06.00% 11 1.50 { Ks8s }
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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His range is wider and certainly includes a discounted AA/KK/QQ, but yeah, I think you lose this a lot, but not often enough to fold.
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