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$1/$2, 4-bet shove with 87s?

  
 
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baudib
Old 01-26-2010, 12:23 PM     Post subject: $1/$2, 4-bet shove with 87s? #1 (permalink)  
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It's the graveyard shift at a live game. I make it $13 to go UTG+1 with 8c7c (standard preflop raises in this game are $10-$25,sometimes more). UTG+2 calls, he's a huge calling station who wants to see a lot of flops and has announced he wants to leave soon. A shortstack in late position goes all in for $55, a reasonably solid player cold calls in the BB. I am pretty sure he would reraise with a monster (JJ+/AK), he has a hand he doesn't feel like he can fold but doesn't want to jam against me.

I have $220 behind, UTG+2 has $500 and BB has about $300, and I have a rock-solid tight image. I feel I have good equity against the shortstack, so this should be an easy push, no? Losing a buyin if BB decides to call it off with AQ or 99 would suck but I have tons and tons of fold equity, and risking another $42 to win $137 HU vs. a shortstack's weak range is worth it in advertising alone. Agree?
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Silly String
Old 01-26-2010, 08:53 PM #2 (permalink)  
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It is your read, BUT I don't think you have nearly the fold equity you need vs BB here to shove. He is going to be getting better than 2:1 and just called $55 cold OOP with two players left to act. I think he's trapping as often as he folds to a shove.
Did you pick up anything from his $55 call, like reluctance?
If you are highly certain you can get BB to lay down his hand it is certainly profitable and worth a ton of table shania?

BTW, I like you last couple posts in this forum. Different situations than normal.
Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
 
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baudib
Old 01-26-2010, 10:12 PM #3 (permalink)  
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yeah, he definitely looked like he was debating the call...if he had pushed the $55 out with any certainly or strength i was going to fold.

Mostly I am relying on my table image and ability to Hollywood a bit, do a "Look, I'm all-in, obviously." He's a reg and most of the regs know I'm a bit nitty.
Playing big pots at small stakes.
 
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Donachello
Old 01-27-2010, 12:35 AM #4 (permalink)  
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It's a tough spot, gotta love the weirdos at live poker tables. The thing is... With a hand like 78s a lot of it's power comes from implied odds and I just don't really see you having them here. Let's say you shove and BB folds. You aren't getting any more money out of the All-in player obviously and therefore have 0 implied odds to help support your call. Also, I definitely see the big stack cold calling here with any pair 55+ and probably ATs+ as that effectively crushes the shorties range. If you reship over that He's probably calling with at least half of his hands since there is already 123 in the pot. Then again I don't have your body language reads
[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven
[00:30] <DC> on my hand?
[00:30] <daven> yep
[00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
[00:30] <daven> nice reason
[00:30] <daven> no further questions
[00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

Problem officer...?
 
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Fnord
Old 01-27-2010, 06:34 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Just fold. You got a terrible hand with very little fold equity unless you shove to set-up at best a marginal spot.
 
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pokerfan
Old 01-27-2010, 02:19 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Equity wise, 78s is too weak to make these all-in moves. I'd rather do this with Any pairs, Ace or king high stuff in terms of preflop equity against random hands.
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