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swings in limit & win-rate

  
 
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scarface_0001
Old 10-07-2009, 07:50 PM     Post subject: swings in limit & win-rate #1 (permalink)  

Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 14
I have started to play limit a month ago. First I studied theory about this game, I read all the limit threads from Deucescracked and then I started playing at micro limits ($.05/$0.10, $0.1-$0.2, $0.12-$0.25).
I'm mainly a NL player but at NL I don't have the problems I have when playing FL. I win almost every day at NL. I can't say the same about FL even if my opponents are weak.
I play preflop after a 6-max chart I've found on 2+2. The only thing I do differently from that chart is I don't overlimp after only one limper. And when I run bad I don't make too much blind defence with marginal hands.
Postflop I think I play ok. Even if I don't play perfectly I'm sure I play better than my opponents. A problem is I don't know when to call down A hi or K hi, but I bought Stox book and I hope it can help me on this subject. Until then I tend to don't go to SW with these marginal hands.

I think I am even a small winner but I have had 60-70BB downswings at micro limits in a single day with players worse than me. Upswings? I never had a 60-70BB upswing in only one day.

Is there a program that can tell me what the probability of having a downswing or a number of break-even hands is if I know my standard deviation and my win-rate?

What is normal SD and WR for 6max micro limits?
I'm curious if is just variance or is bad play. I don't think is bad play (because even if I not make 100% the right decisions I'm sure I play better than my opponents; and in poker you may be a winner even if you don't play perfectly, if your opponents play worse than you), but want to be sure.
I've heard that 1BB/100 or 2BB/100 are considered good WR. IMO these are very low WR. And I read on DC about a 1BB/100 winner at 2-4 (sample size of over 500K hands) who had downswings that lasted 100K hands. If I have this problems at micro limits I don't want to imagine what will happen if I start to play higher limits (I have bankroll from my NL winnings to play higher limits but I'm afraid I will bust my bankroll, that's why I only play 0.1-0.2 limit).

Edit: I forgot to say I have only a small number of hands played. I don't use Holdem Manager or PT but I think I probably played 10-15K hands.
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scarface_0001
Old 10-07-2009, 09:42 PM #2 (permalink)  

Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 14
Maybe I should play tighter? The chart I use says to open-raise from the BU with 22, A2s, K2s, Q6s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 86s, 76s, A2, K5, Q8, J9, T8, 98. I don't feel I have too much FE with the players I play. A lot of them will call with A hi or K hi until the river. When I'm HU I cbet every time. And when I have 2 opponents I also cbet over 90% of time. And usually if I have at least A hi I also 2 barrel against one opponent, especially if I have position.
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asdpikas
Old 10-08-2009, 01:25 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
Quote:
Originally Posted by scarface_0001
Maybe I should play tighter? The chart I use says to open-raise from the BU with 22, A2s, K2s, Q6s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 86s, 76s, A2, K5, Q8, J9, T8, 98. I don't feel I have too much FE with the players I play. A lot of them will call with A hi or K hi until the river. When I'm HU I cbet every time. And when I have 2 opponents I also cbet over 90% of time. And usually if I have at least A hi I also 2 barrel against one opponent, especially if I have position.
that range is fine and pretty conventional. To adjust to people defending too much, preflop u may take out the offsuit connectors, but not more. Your adjustments should come postflop, in thinner value bets against stations, less multiple bluffs, inducing rivers with Ahi. Simply put, your range is fine and if u play fine postflop, u should show a nice profit since u are playing pots against them in position with nice-good-premium hands.
"could I take out every woman and child in a border town?"
For the right to be governed, waste them without mercy.
When you've decided. Meet me at the airport.
 
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asdpikas
Old 10-08-2009, 02:48 PM     Post subject: Re: swings in limit & win-rate #4 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
Quote:
Originally Posted by scarface_0001
I think I am even a small winner but I have had 60-70BB downswings at micro limits in a single day with players worse than me. Upswings? I never had a 60-70BB upswing in only one day.
sample size is too small, but, maybe ur not getting full value on your hands?

as for swings, 60-70BB isnt that much.
Today I played 1100 hands of FR and after 300 hands was down 55BB, in the end I made a profit.

It is the equivalent of 2.5 buyins, if u've never encountered that kind of swings in NL, u haven't played enough hands by a long shot.
"could I take out every woman and child in a border town?"
For the right to be governed, waste them without mercy.
When you've decided. Meet me at the airport.
 
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scarface_0001
Old 10-08-2009, 03:25 PM     Post subject: Re: swings in limit & win-rate #5 (permalink)  

Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
sample size is too small, but, maybe ur not getting full value on your hands?
Usually when I have a hand I bet bet bet on all streets if my opponent doesn't raise. I almost never slowplay. Sometimes I wait for the turn to raise my opponent's donkbet or for the river (usually for the turn) if I have position with good hands. Only in heads-up pots. I don't think I don't get full value on my hands. I think I calldown too much on the river when my opponent raises. Even if I know there are high chances I'm beat sometimes I can't fold for one more bet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
as for swings, 60-70BB isnt that much.
Today I played 1100 hands of FR and after 300 hands was down 55BB, in the end I made a profit.

It is the equivalent of 2.5 buyins, if u've never encountered that kind of swings in NL, u haven't played enough hands by a long shot.
I had more than 2.5 BI swings in NL but because my opponents are weak (I play NL on 888) I usually win them back pretty fast. It seems that at limit the edge I have over weaker opponents is not so big.

Is there a program that shows me what the probability to have a downswing in 10K hands or in 100K hands is if I know my SD and WR?
Let's suppose I have a SD of 18BB/100 and a WR of 2BB/100. It would be interesting to know what are the chances to have negative win-rate after 10K, 20K or 100K hands.
I couldn't believe it when I read on DC that downswings of +300BB are possible even for a winning player and that a 1BB/100 winner had downswings that lasted 100K hands.
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asdpikas
Old 10-08-2009, 05:14 PM     Post subject: Re: swings in limit & win-rate #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scarface_0001

I had more than 2.5 BI swings in NL but because my opponents are weak (I play NL on 888)
This is untrue (regardless of where u play). You may have inevitable hands that u lose regardless of how your opponents play. Getting AA vs KK, mid set vs top set, flush vs nut flush....

These can create downswings as much as the random suckouts from bad play. Happened to me today

Quote:
Originally Posted by scarface_0001

Is there a program that shows me what the probability to have a downswing in 10K hands or in 100K hands is if I know my SD and WR?
I dont know. There must be.

Quote:
Originally Posted by scarface_0001
I couldn't believe it when I read on DC that downswings of +300BB are possible even for a winning player and that a 1BB/100 winner had downswings that lasted 100K hands.
I had a downswing of 350BBs at 6max that lasted 45k hands. It happens. I dont see how it seems so unlikely.
"could I take out every woman and child in a border town?"
For the right to be governed, waste them without mercy.
When you've decided. Meet me at the airport.
 
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BennyLaRue
Old 10-08-2009, 05:22 PM     Post subject: Re: swings in limit & win-rate #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scarface_0001
I couldn't believe it when I read on DC that downswings of +300BB are possible even for a winning player
Not just possible...totally and absolutely standard. And since it doesn't happen quickly, you will think that you're gradually coming down with mono or something but no, it's just limit poker turning your mind to goo.
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scarface_0001
Old 10-08-2009, 05:39 PM     Post subject: Re: swings in limit & win-rate #8 (permalink)  

Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
This is untrue (regardless of where u play). You may have inevitable hands that u lose regardless of how your opponents play. Getting AA vs KK, mid set vs top set, flush vs nut flush....

These can create downswings as much as the random suckouts from bad play. Happened to me today
I said "but because my opponents are weak I usually win them back pretty fast" not that I have 2.5 BI downswings because my opponents play bad.
So even if I lose 2,3 or 4 BI it's just a matter of time until I win them back (usually in the same day).

Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
I had a downswing of 350BBs at 6max that lasted 45k hands. It happens. I dont see how it seems so unlikely.
I don't think poker is for me. 45K hands mean 3-4 months for me.
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BennyLaRue
Old 10-08-2009, 05:49 PM     Post subject: Re: swings in limit & win-rate #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scarface_0001
I don't think poker is for me. 45K hands means 3-4 month for me.
Downswings don't necessarily mean negatives to the bankroll if you have good rakeback and/or bonus deals AND make sure you move down in limits if your bankroll necessitates it.
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Chopper
Old 10-08-2009, 09:34 PM     Post subject: Re: swings in limit & win-rate #10 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,238
Quote:
Originally Posted by scarface_0001
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
sample size is too small, but, maybe ur not getting full value on your hands?
Usually when I have a hand I bet bet bet on all streets if my opponent doesn't raise. I almost never slowplay. Sometimes I wait for the turn to raise my opponent's donkbet or for the river (usually for the turn) if I have position with good hands. Only in heads-up pots. I don't think I don't get full value on my hands. I think I calldown too much on the river when my opponent raises. Even if I know there are high chances I'm beat sometimes I can't fold for one more bet.
bet/bet/bet lines dont mean you are maxxing value. what do you do when your villain raises for a free card? what do you do when the scare card comes and he raises, but you have showdown value? do you pump your draws with good relative position? do you buy yourself outs in marginal spots to increase your chances of cheap showdowns and/or getting villain HU when he is a chronic bluffer?

these are the spots where you max your winrate. and, they take time to get good in. you cant give up after 45k hands if you want to get good at LHE.

the good news is you dont need those skills to beat 25c/50c, imo. but, you can really work and develop these skills down there with very little resistance.

here is a spot. do you try your best to get as much money in on this river, or are you thinking he has AT when he raises our donk lead?

$0.25/$0.5 Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (10.7)
UTG+1 (7.05)
MP1 (5.35)
MP2 (22.35)
MP3 (14.75)
CO (7.2)
BTN (4.75)
SB (15.2)
BB (7.2)

Pre-Flop: (1.4 SB, 9 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises, 3 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, BTN calls, 1 fold, BB calls

Flop: (8.4 SB, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, BTN calls, BB calls

Turn: (6.2 BB, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, 1 fold, BB folds, Hero calls

River: (10.2 BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP3 4-bets, Hero calls

Final Pot: 18.2 BB
MP3 shows two pair, Queens and Jacks

Hero shows three of a kind, Kings


Hero wins 17.4 BB ( won +9.9 BB )

MP3 lost -7.5 BB
BTN lost -1.5 BB
BB lost -1.5 BB
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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scarface_0001
Old 10-08-2009, 11:06 PM     Post subject: Re: swings in limit & win-rate #11 (permalink)  

Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chopper
bet/bet/bet lines dont mean you are maxxing value. what do you do when your villain raises for a free card?
I was speaking generally. The hands I have problems to play are not big hands, but hands like A hi, K hi and small/medium pairs. But I read daily all the limit threads from Deucescracked and I bought Stox book and I am going to start reading it. I hope I will play better these marginal hands.
And in the games I played my opponents didn't use the free card raise too much.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chopper
here is a spot. do you try your best to get as much money in on this river, or are you thinking he has AT when he raises our donk lead?
I also 3-bet the river. There are many hands I beat (2 pairs, smaller sets). He would also raise the river with these hands. And if this was a hand from my games I would eliminate AT from his range after his turn raise if he is an unknown. 99% players from the games I played wouldn't raise the turn with AT. And I like the donkbet more than a c-raise. In my games there are high chances that villain will not check behind the river, but c-raise is a stronger move than donkbet so he will probably just call with 2 pair. (I'm speaking about the typycal villain from my games). But if I bet he will raise with 2 pair most of the time and I can 3bet making him pay 3 bets instead of only 2.
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asdpikas
Old 10-08-2009, 11:32 PM     Post subject: Re: swings in limit & win-rate #12 (permalink)  
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Posts: 1,056
Quote:
Originally Posted by scarface_0001
I also 3-bet the river. There are many hands I beat (2 pairs, smaller sets). He would also raise the river with these hands. And if this was a hand from my games I would eliminate AT from his range after his turn raise if he is an unknown. 99% players from the games I played wouldn't raise the turn with AT. And I like the donkbet more than a c-raise. In my games there are high chances that villain will not check behind the river, but c-raise is a stronger move than donkbet so he will probably just call with 2 pair. (I'm speaking about the typycal villain from my games). But if I bet he will raise with 2 pair most of the time and I can 3bet making him pay 3 bets instead of only 2.
good analysis
"could I take out every woman and child in a border town?"
For the right to be governed, waste them without mercy.
When you've decided. Meet me at the airport.
 
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