Turning your hand to a bluff?
Game NLH 25-50 live full ring 100BB max buy in.
Here's an interesting one yesterday, I will post the results and my 'in-game analysis' at the end of this thread:
Me (BTN) 10c-9c
Stack: 8000+ (170+ BB)
Situation: 1 limper ahead of me, jacked it up to 200
BB: Calls 200
Stack: 10000+ (200+BB)
BB is a solid TAG who can change gears. (no VPIP/PFR stats but he's a known reg).
Preflop pot: 500
Flop comes in 10d-9d-6d
Me: Bet 300
BB: Check Raises to 900.
Pot after the Flop: 2300
Turn: As Board reads (10d-9d-6d-As)
Me: Bets 1450
Pot after the Turn: 2900
Final Board Reads: 10d-9d-6d-As-3d
BB: Bets 2000
Me: Shoves for my remaining 6K+
BB: Tanks, jokingly calls the clock on himself, tells me that that was a lucky river for me and folds showing 8d-7s for a flopped straight (with SF redraw and an 8 high flush by the river.) I auto muck with a relieved face, proud at myself for attempting and succeeding at the bluff and thankful for my luck as well.
Issues for discussion:
1) What story would you tell during the whole hand?
His defending range is probably Ax, SCs, K-9+, Q-10+ and rarely 3-bets from the blinds.
When BB raised me on the flop, it was impossible that it was just air and I knew I was beat (probably by a set, straight or baby flush). It seemed like a genuine ' I got a great hand but I hate the board' raise. I've been playing SCs, Suited AXs, and betting FDs and OESDs all night in position so I had a feeling that BB thinks that I can have a flopped flush or at least an Ad in my hand. And I could probably take it away in the succeeding streets.
When I bet small on the turn, I wanted a) either represent that the Ace hit me and I do have a diamond Ace and I am creating a value-betting/blocking dynamic, b) I already have a flush with a broadway kicker and I am value betting it.
Truthfully, his turn call seemed fishy and made me think that he's the one with the Ace of diamonds but I've never seen him c/r with his draws and he would have probably been the one to lead-out when the Ace hit.
By the river, it became a game on who has the Ace of diamonds. His bet is his standard river bet as his river betting range is quite polarised, his bet size ranges from 30%pot to 80% pot but never overbets.
I know that he thinks about bet sizes as well and I know that my river bet sizes are quite polarized as well ( I either overbet the pot or range my bets from 50 to 60%, depending on reads and objectives) hence my overbet shove seemed credible for the nut flush or at least a strong flush.
I really wasn't able to think about other factors such as what range did he put me on but I know that he knows that I do bluff rivers on boards like this and he would have probably check out of position if he did have the nuts in order to induce me to bet, hence making my decision to shove easier.
Truthfully, I seldom use the river raise-shove as it's scary for me and I probably lack the testicular fortitude for it but I do it sometimes and I've never been called.
But is it the right move in this spot?
2) What other boards would you bluff/raise on and what would be your raise-size?
I would have given up if any of the broadway diamonds hit (due to the fact that I am representing very little) and would have shoved if the 10 or 9 hit (because of my full-house obv).
3) What would you do if the river blanks? i.e. 2c or 4s hits?
I would probably fold.
4) What if he checks the river?
Here I have no idea. His river bet gave his hand away actually. It would actually be tempting to try and take it away with a bluff but an OOP check is always fishy. I would just probably take the showdown. How about you guys?
GL at the tables my friends.