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Tricky river decision (5/10)

  
 
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Alexos
Old 07-15-2009, 10:08 PM     Post subject: Tricky river decision (5/10) #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is J B o m b s on FT, FTOPS avatar but im pretty sure he's a regular at these stakes. Stats are 33/23/3.8 over a small sample size fwiw so he's def not ur std tag. I'm an unknown to him.

I think vs an unknown this is a pretty std fold right, i think his most likely hand is 9x here, with a small possibility of K9/AK. Obv I cannot have K9/AK in my range so he'd be shoving every 9x here to take me off a split. The question now is, does he ever have enough air here to justify calling? And would he expect me to fold 9x... What if he shoved for only 1k more, would that be a call?

Is there any point to even bet river, given how he played it?

edit: fwiw this happened 10-15min after the 77 hand i posted.

$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($2000.00)
UTG+1 ($1000.00)
CO ($1525.00)
BTN ($2702.50)
SB ($1012.50)
Hero (BB) ($2493.00)

Pre-flop: ($24, 6 players) Hero is BB
3 folds, BTN raises to $20, 1 fold, Hero calls $10

Flop: ($63, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $30, Hero raises to $100, BTN raises to $310, Hero calls $210

Turn: ($683, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($683, 2 players)
Hero bets $430, BTN raises to $2,371, $1,733 to Hero ($1,733)?
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pocketfours
Old 07-15-2009, 11:27 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I don't think you can call the flop 3bet profitably. I would probably lead the turn as played (not that checking is bad) and I think b/f is your worst river line by far, while b/c is fine against many opponents. Usually I would just c/c, so I don't really think this is such a tough spot. J9 is by far his most likely hand, but he might have turned a made hand into a bluff because you can never beat a 9. Call.

Interesting hand though for sure.
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griffey24
Old 07-16-2009, 04:46 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 My first instinct when looking at this hand is that I'd also bet this river.

But looking at villain's line, the only/most possible hands to get value from by leading are QJ and some bluffy Qx hand on the flop like AQ/KQ.

I think after his flop line and turn check though he could have a lot of bluffy air, so c/c prob gets the most value out of his range on the river, that might bluff given a Q hit and a four straight is out.
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sauce123
Old 07-17-2009, 11:25 PM #4 (permalink)  
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meeehh i call
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Old 07-18-2009, 12:49 AM #5 (permalink)  
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he just doesn't have better hands in his range
he has better hands as part of his "air" on the flop which is sick if he just luckboxed the nuts
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Alexos
Old 07-18-2009, 03:28 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sauce123
meeehh i call
would u bet river or c/c?
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 07-18-2009, 06:25 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 Eh this ones really close just because he can really plausibly rep k9 and AK. I guarantee you see some bluffs though.

I kinda hate leading the river. I bet you see him v-bet most hands he calls with.
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golfguy37
Old 07-18-2009, 07:07 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I think you have to call here. The way he played teh flop leads me to believe he doesn't have AK or K9, the only 2 hands that have you beat.
 
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nutsinho
Old 07-22-2009, 10:13 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 it makes no sense to bet-fold this. ur hand is 1 million % face up when you bet here while your range is wide if you check
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 07-23-2009, 12:58 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 I'm glad Nuts is back so he can just post and end discussion of these threads because my spaced out clumsy ass sure can't.
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meeloche
Old 07-23-2009, 04:20 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I'm glad Nuts is back so he can just post and end discussion of these threads because my spaced out clumsy ass sure can't.
+1
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Renton
Old 07-24-2009, 06:35 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 yeah i can only see flop call being good if you put him on having tons of air and marginal hands or if you can put him on mostly huge hands and little air. vs even a somewhat balanced range it seems like u aren't gonna come out ahead imo.
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fkscreennames
Old 08-18-2009, 07:04 PM #13 (permalink)  

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Alexos so it was u in my house stealing pictures of my girlfriend.
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