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Totally F'ed spot deep

  
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 11-13-2009, 01:00 AM     Post subject: Totally F'ed spot deep #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain in this hand is Thousandair1, a smart, very aggro pl;ayer who usually plays hu. His biggest leak is he's a pretty big station, but this seems irrelevant to this situation. He is extremely aggro and will 3barrel relentlessly, but this doesn't seem like a board he'd bluff. I've never really played deep with him either, and it seems he wouldnt flat AA or KK preflop. Then again can he have anything else besides those hands a JT?

maybe this is easier than i think

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($3093)
MP ($1000)
Button ($1170)
SB ($3601.75)
BB ($1883.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7, 7
Hero bets $30, 1 fold, Button calls $30, SB calls $25, 1 fold

Flop: ($100) 7, A, K (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $70, Button calls $70, SB raises to $260, Hero calls $190, 1 fold

Turn: ($690) Q (2 players)
SB bets $515, Hero calls $515

River: ($1720) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $2796.75 (All-In), [color=#666666][i]Hero
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 11-13-2009, 01:13 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 It's hard to imagine him bluffing or having anything thats vbetting besides JT, and I'd expect him to probably play JT this way. It's such a thin value range though id call and not even think about it.
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griffey24
Old 11-13-2009, 02:09 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 Given stacks and positions, it seems way more likely that he might play AK like this than either AA/KK. I'm also not sure he'd c/r JT that often on this board, so JTdd seems like it should be the hand we're mostly worried about.

Seems like he's got AK trying to stack AQ to me... sick river overbet though.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 11-13-2009, 02:34 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 I feel like preflop its more likely he has AA or KK than AK. One could justify flatting AA or KK here deep for deception, AK not as much and he's not the type of player to flat AK here out of fear of playing a big pot.
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sauce123
Old 11-13-2009, 02:41 AM #5 (permalink)  
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id fold river for sure, and i mean id fold without time banking in game.

YOU AGREE NUTSINHO ?????????


is he really bluffing you off AK/AQ here? Nah, cmon.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 11-13-2009, 04:18 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Flatting AA/KK here from the sb is terrible, I really cant fathom thousandair doing it. I suppose he could flat AK here which makes me want to call more.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 11-13-2009, 06:44 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Flatting AA/KK here from the sb is terrible, I really cant fathom thousandair doing it. I suppose he could flat AK here which makes me want to call more.
We're 300bb deep, we're gonna have a shitload behind if i call his reraise and ive been playing tight to his 3bets. And he expects that if a flop comes out like this im not gonna give him credit. He may use one or both of these to justify it.

He might be right too, not sure how to adjust preflop ranges when playing deep.
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pocketfours
Old 11-14-2009, 08:57 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 I'm trying to figure out how we can fold this river when we don't 3bet the flop. I mean isn't this the most beautiful flop IMAGINABLE for your hand? It's like MOSES himself would have sent you these three hand picked, magic cards from HEAVEN!

And now because of an OFFSUIT QUEEN and a smallish overbet we want to FOLD after we slowplayed the nuts on a drawy board?

I mean yeah I get that our hand is far from the nuts by now, we are sick deep, hate life and you probably got beaten by yet another gutshot, but cmon pay the man his money.

If you have superhuman abilities and some weird sixth sense sick read telling you you're beat, the sure ok fold. I say we still have effective top set on a dry board and I wouldn't be pushed around.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 11-14-2009, 09:19 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 I wasn't happy about the flop because i didnt expect him to raise here ever so my immediate thought was AA or KK even though it technically didnt make sense. i think 3betting the flop is a mistake just cause we're hoping he has AK cause thats the only thing he has and he may not even stack with it depending how the hand plays out.
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pocketfours
Old 11-15-2009, 05:48 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
I wasn't happy about the flop because i didnt expect him to raise here ever so my immediate thought was AA or KK even though it technically didnt make sense. i think 3betting the flop is a mistake just cause we're hoping he has AK cause thats the only thing he has and he may not even stack with it depending how the hand plays out.
You think he is just going to fold KdQd, KdJd, TdJd, JdQd to a small 3bet? Or do you expect him to always c/c with those?

Can't we assume that since button called in the middle villain would be more inclined to c/r his combos? He is obviously going to stack off with the aforementioned hands against button at least.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 11-15-2009, 11:59 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 hmmm solid point. i think if the button folded it would be likely he just calls some of those but with the button calling... now im thinking maybe a flop 3bet is better.
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nutsinho
Old 11-16-2009, 08:44 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 damn thats pretty insane but i agree with sauce
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gabe
Old 11-17-2009, 12:23 AM #13 (permalink)  
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no way he has a better set
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Alexos
Old 11-17-2009, 03:17 AM #14 (permalink)  
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 Legit sick spot, a nitroll is in order.

Agree with gabe he never has a better set, but pretty often has TJcc TJdd, i think id fold even if its just 2 combos
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Genitruc
Old 11-17-2009, 03:26 AM #15 (permalink)  
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 pocketfours may not have won this thread...

wait, wtf am I thinking, pocketfours won this thread
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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nutsinho
Old 11-17-2009, 07:58 AM #16 (permalink)  
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 claiming that this flop is amazing for us is just silly. sure, we are almost 100% to have the best hand but we are very close to 0% to get 3 streets of solid value since we raised UTG and it is a multiway pot vs at least one very good player.

as for the actual analysis it seems the most important question is this: is it more likely that thousandair would actually overcall out of position pre 150bb deep with kk/aa, or to represent that he did such a thing as a bluff? id say the former is 100 times more likely. So now you just have to decide whether he'd overbet jam AK on the river, and I personally think he's a much better player than that...

oh i forgot to mention JTdd. He can definitely have that. its only 1 combo though and i think hed lead it and check call it a lot on the flop

basically on river he's overbetting into a very strong range on the river while barely representing anything, which is generally an indication that one either has the nuts somehow, or has an absolutely sick amount of respect for the other player's abilities and is going very far out of his way to exploit him
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pocketfours
Old 11-17-2009, 02:46 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 nutsinho, this is 309BB deep, not 150BB. Did you also notice that villain shoved only $2290 eff into $1720 and not $2790 into $1720?

I don't think the overbet is big enough to make a very significant difference in this hand and I don't see why he couln't represent 77. We are just fortunate to know that he doesn't have it.

Or is it somehow obvious that shoving 77 on the river is absurd?
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Genitruc
Old 11-17-2009, 07:28 PM #18 (permalink)  
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 sick thread
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 11-18-2009, 02:35 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketfours
nutsinho, this is 309BB deep, not 150BB. Did you also notice that villain shoved only $2290 eff into $1720 and not $2790 into $1720?

I don't think the overbet is big enough to make a very significant difference in this hand and I don't see why he couln't represent 77. We are just fortunate to know that he doesn't have it.

Or is it somehow obvious that shoving 77 on the river is absurd?
I dont see how you can argue that an intelligent player is going to try and rep one hand (that isn't a straight) on a board he must know is very much in my favor.
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sauce123
Old 11-18-2009, 07:16 AM #20 (permalink)  
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it doesnt make sense that hes bluffing, and it doesnt make sense that hes valuebetting, but it makes more sense hes valuebetting and is being weird than just throwing a stack away
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Genitruc
Old 11-18-2009, 12:08 PM #21 (permalink)  
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 would those advocating a fold look to fold KK?
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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pocketfours
Old 11-18-2009, 02:31 PM #22 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketfours
nutsinho, this is 309BB deep, not 150BB. Did you also notice that villain shoved only $2290 eff into $1720 and not $2790 into $1720?

I don't think the overbet is big enough to make a very significant difference in this hand and I don't see why he couln't represent 77. We are just fortunate to know that he doesn't have it.

Or is it somehow obvious that shoving 77 on the river is absurd?
I dont see how you can argue that an intelligent player is going to try and rep one hand (that isn't a straight) on a board he must know is very much in my favor.
If he's intelligent, then he will correctly assume that you won't call his shove with a bluff catcher. You've got quite a few hands in your range that you are going to fold without much thought.

Let's say this is your range by the river:

AA (3)
KK (3)
77 (3)
AK (9)
AcJc (1)
AcTc (1)
KdQd (1)
TdJd (1)
KdJd (1)
KdTd (1)

I don't know your stats so I'm not sure if you would open all of these from the hijack, I open all of these most of the time. Of these, the ones we need to discount the most are the sets since you didn't 3bet the flop. Let's say your weighted range looks something like this:

AA (2)
KK (2)
77 (2)
AK (9)
AcJc (1)
AcTc (1)
KdQd (1)
TdJd (1)
KdJd (1)
KdTd (1)

Now let's say villain has QdJd, which makes your range:

AA (2)
KK (2)
77 (2)
AK (9)
AcJc (1)
AcTc (1)
KdTd (1)

Of these he expects you to call with AA/KK/77 and TdJd, so you would call with 7 combos and fold 12 (63%). For the shove to show profit you need to fold only 57%.

Now if you would fold 77 as well, then his shove will show a very clear profit. So I don't think it's unreasonable for an intelligent player to make a bluff here even though he is repping thin.

HOWEVER, we can also see that if our assumptions are correct, then shoving KdJd would not be profitable (and it needs to be heavily discounted anyway). If that is the case, then it's pretty hard to see what villain is bluffing with and we can estimate that he will have the nuts with a big enough frequency that we need to fold our set. If we add to that even the slightest possibility that he misclick called with AA/KK pre, then folding becomes more clear.

We need to add small flushes to villains flop raising range before we can call the river.
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pocketfours
Old 11-18-2009, 02:33 PM #23 (permalink)  
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 Cliff notes, yeah this looks like a fold.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 11-18-2009, 11:05 PM #24 (permalink)  
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 Nice post, the thing is though... and this is just my conclusion from playing with him a lot, is that he doesn't expect me (or anyone else for that matter) to fold AK here which just makes me feel like he's never bluffing on the river. At the time i didn't think he'd even raise KJdd on second thought he probably raises all combo draws which just makes this even tougher for me. I bet if he did have a bluff it would be KJdd or QJdd.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 11-18-2009, 11:06 PM #25 (permalink)  
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 Btw, i folded and didn't ask. I'm trying to get someone who knows him to find out what he had!
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gabe
Old 11-23-2009, 06:00 PM #26 (permalink)  
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the original post had nothing about what he thought of you. if he thinks you are going to peel a lot of hands on the turn (for whatever reason) then he has to shove all his KJdd type hands
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 11-30-2009, 08:31 PM #27 (permalink)  
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 im actually really unsure what he thinks of me. when we played hu he won a decent amount off me and he was just outplaying me. in this session i havent called him down once even tho he's fire 2 or 3 big river bets.
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dsmithpokerpro
Old 12-11-2009, 09:12 AM #28 (permalink)  

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i hate slow plays. i really want to put it on the flop. it really looks like you got big hand vs. big hand. i just die with a set here on the flop.
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