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Numbr2intheWorld
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09-02-2009, 08:46 PM
Post subject: Stupid HU hand but still unsure
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
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Villain in the hand i have never played hu. I have played him in 6max however. I'd classify him as semi loose pre, very aggressive postflop. I've seen him triple barrel air on two seperate occassions one where the board just came out dry blanks and one where flop was low and an overcard came on the turn, river draws missed. I'd assume he's calling this 3bet pre pretty wide. Its safe to assume he'll bluff raise flops but not sure about this one.
Curious what you guys do here.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($5050)
SB ($5000)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K , A
SB bets $150, Hero raises to $500, SB calls $350
Flop: ($1000) J, K , 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $650, SB raises to $1950
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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I can't imagine folding this hand vs the villain described. I feel like he could be FoS, but the board is too drawy to call OOP so I usually just end up shipping.
I've definitely seen KQ in this spot before too, given the drawiness of the board.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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i wonder how bad calling is
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Shooooovvveeee. I'm not pumped about it but you probably have like 45% equity against his range so your comitted.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
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how could you not shove this? he can have so many worse 1 pair hands
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meeloche
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,131
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
how could you not shove this? he can have so many worse 1 pair hands
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This imo
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
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if your saying bare one pair hands i can't think of any actually.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Do you think villain is raising here as a bluff or for value? It's possible villain will raise KQ/KT in this spot but I think that is the only hands I can think of that we beat that he reraises for value. Other hands obv in his value range are: 99, J9s, KJ, K9s, and QT (I'm giving him suited but he may defend unsuited if you've been 3betting heavily).
Does villain ever flat out bluff in this spot? Probably not given he's put in 1/2 his stack. AhJh, AhTh, Th8h, QhJh, JhTh, AhQh and maybe Jh8h all are possibilities and maybe other Axh/Qxh hands but who knows.
Best possible case with all draws:
Board: Js Kh 9h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.977% 62.70% 00.27% 34763 151.50 { 99, AhJh, AhTh, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KTs+, QhJh, QTs, JhTh, J9s, Jh8h, Th8h, KTo+, QTo }
Hand 1: 37.023% 36.75% 00.27% 20374 151.50 { AsKd }
We're getting 3-1 on a call so folding couldn't be good, if we stick it in we'd be risking 3950 to win 7550 or like 1.91. It's pretty close, since we only need like 34% equity to get it in; I don't see myself folding but maybe we should. Maybe call the raise and shove any non-heart turn?
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gabe
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
if your saying bare one pair hands i can't think of any actually.
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theres only a single one pair hand ahead of yours, right?
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
if your saying bare one pair hands i can't think of any actually.
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theres only a single one pair hand ahead of yours, right? |
I'm just saying i dont think he's value betting worse. If he was raising a one pair hand he probably has 9 outs.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Jeff, you basically outlined my exact thoughts. Theres basically no way this is a pure bluff. Your range is pretty good, its possible there could be more draws. like low fds.
The thing about calling is that i have no idea what his turn shoving range will be. And then what happens if he checks back the turn on a blank and then shoves the river on a blank? Do i call? What if a T or Q comes and he shoves? I seriously doubt i can play this situation well. So i really feel like the option is shove or fold. I didnt really ever consider calling then shoving the turn, but the thing is unless he's retarded he's not gonna call with a heart draw so wouldnt you rather him get it in on the flop, behind, with that type of hand? i could be wrong
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
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yea he has 9 outs, and all those hands that have 9 outs that hes raising with are going to call a shove
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siltstrider
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 85
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Seems like a really sick spot. Shoving sucks because you're not crushing most of his calling range, right? And calling sucks because there are so many bad cards that can come.
I think that calling just leads to more, and more expensive mistakes. You said it yourself, don't know what to do against any further aggression. If it won't be profitable to continue, then don't continue. End the hand here, with either a shove or a fold.
As for deciding whether to push or fold, I think you have to do the math, as that's what it comes down to. Time to break out poker stove and really think about his range.
EDIT: Probably should mention that one buyin at my stakes isn't even a small blind in this hand, so maybe my thoughts are completely awful here. :s
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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how about CR the flop?
not saying i d do it...
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
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hes semi loose and very aggro....the only way i could think not to shove is if he thinks youre a huge nit or something
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
I didnt really ever consider calling then shoving the turn, but the thing is unless he's retarded he's not gonna call with a heart draw so wouldnt you rather him get it in on the flop, behind, with that type of hand? i could be wrong
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This is actually something calculable. Given there is 2500 behind and a pot of 5000, he's getting 3:1 on a call so he cant fold any combo draw of any kind on the turn. Our equity actually increases on the turn given the same range before on a blank. You can effectively decide what the turn will bring before we make a move all in with our hand. If we call the raise and the turn is a heart then its a fairly easy c/f, same thing on any Q or T.
Even if he only calls the turn AI with:
99, AhJh, AhTh, KTs+, QhJh, QTs, JhTh, J9s, Jh8h, Th8h, KTo+, QTo
Our equity doesn't change at all from the flop on a blank (I'm using 2d) and probably is better if we don't know what his turn shoving range will be like. We'll also take the pot down 7/56 or 13% of the time when we shove the turn which should give us a little bit of cushion over shoving the flop.
Hope this makes sense and hope its right :P
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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i dont generally stop and go in cash games but this is a really good spot for it
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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c/fing T/J/Q/heart obv
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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crazy
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