Originally Posted by Toadstool

Generally in spots like this I just let the hand go, if he is getting frustrated with you, let him have this one - thats not a bad thing if he thinks he can push you around. Seems needlessly large for a 4 bet - would he just call your 3 bet with AA/KK? looks like AK more than anything - but against his range I think its best to fold.

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Pick a range..

Originally Posted by Lukie

I sincerely appreciate the effort, but this thinking is severely flawed because pokerstove cannot weight ranges, which is extremely important in this spot.

Originally Posted by Lukie

this thinking is severely flawed because pokerstove cannot weight ranges, which is extremely important in this spot.

Originally Posted by Lukie

I sincerely appreciate the effort, but this thinking is severely flawed because pokerstove cannot weight ranges, which is extremely important in this spot.

Originally Posted by gabe

wrong iziot

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

You guys are thinking about this all wrong. We shouldn't be trying to put him on a hand. We should realise that this bet looks like AK and then try to put him on a level.


Also Lukie Pokerstove can eight ranges. Use the suits selector thing in the bottom right corner.

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

sure, but the uncertainty lies in determining correct frequencies so you'll just have to get a feel for equity% and a way to do that is screwing around alot with pokerstove and plugging in various ranges.. At least, that's what I do a lot

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Seems like we need to do some math.

Let's assume the following:

You think that he has either an overpair or overcards. You also think that if he has anything other than that, he will fold to a shove.

Then EV = P(call)*(P(op)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc)) + P(fold)*EV(fold)

Your read on him might be that 90% of the time he will have overcards (AK/AQ) and 10% of the time an overpair. You also think that sometimes he is on a complete bluff and will fold to a shove, perhaps 5% of the time.

90% of the time your chance of winning is approximately 54%
10% of the time your chance of winning is approximately 20%

P(fold) = 0.05
P(call) = 0.95
EV(op) = 0.2*(6696+800) - 0.8*(6696-800) = -3217.6
EV(oc) = 0.54*(6696+800) - 0.46*(6696-800) = 1335.68
EV(fold) = 3800

EV = 0.95*( //he calls...
0.10*(0.2*(6696+800) - 0.8*(6696-800)) + //...with overpair
0.9*(0.54*(6696+800) - 0.46*(6696-800))) + //...with overcards
0.05*3800 //he folds
= 1026 usd

Clearly EV+ with those reads at least.

But that doesn't answer your question (I don't know your read exactly). What we actually want to know is: what does the likelyhood P(oc) of him having overcards have to be for the call to be EV+?

We need to know when:
P(call)*(P(op)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc)) + P(fold)*EV(fold) > 0

First lets find out when:
P(call)*(P(op)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc)) + P(fold)*EV(fold) = 0

Since we assume that if he calls, then P(op) + P(oc) = 1, we get:

P(call)*(EV(op) - P(oc)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc)) + P(fold)*EV(fold) = 0

EV(op) - P(oc)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc) = - P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call)

-P(oc)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc) = -P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call) - EV(op)

P(oc)*EV(op) - P(oc)*EV(oc) = P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call) + EV(op)

P(oc)*(EV(op)-EV(oc)) = P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call) + EV(op)

Finally:

P(oc) = (P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call) + EV(op))/(EV(op)-EV(oc))

P(oc) = (190/0.95 - 3217.6) / (-3217.6-1335.68);

P(oc) = -3017.6 / -4553.28 = 0.663

So my answer to your initial question is: If you think the likelyhood of him having overcards is more than 66.3% and you think he will fold to a shove 5% of the time, then throw your chips in.

Class dismissed.

Originally Posted by Lukie

explain what you mean about 'putting him on a level'?