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ITT i try and convince myself to c/f a set.

  
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 02-09-2010, 01:56 AM     Post subject: ITT i try and convince myself to c/f a set. #1 (permalink)  
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 SB is a fish. seems just kinda loose and kind of dumb. Villain is a reg who i ahvent played too much with but my impression is just standard tagg reg.

So a couple of decisions here:

1) Should i check the turn
2) Should i call now?

My thoughts were gibberlings range is basically t8, QT, J9, 99, JJ and its hard to argue anything else. FWIW the reg called quick on the flop and the fish called quickly on the turn.

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BB ($1015)
UTG ($710)
Hero (MP) ($1030)
CO ($1000)
Button ($1000)
SB ($1439.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 2, 2
1 fold, Hero bets $30, CO calls $30, 1 fold, SB calls $25, BB calls $20

Flop: ($120) 9, 2, J (4 players)
SB bets $70, 1 fold, Hero raises to $210, CO calls $210, SB calls $140

Turn: ($750) 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $760 (All-In), SB calls $760, [color=#666666][i]
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 02-09-2010, 02:54 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 arrgggghhh seems like a fold. It seems really close because CO surely has J9 a lot but given suckout equity of everyone and the not good suckout equity of your hand and the possibilities of the fish beating you its a fold.

I'd check the turn as well after CO cold calls.
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pocketfours
Old 02-09-2010, 08:58 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 I'd call since we need so little equity. Its a sweet scoop if they both have J9. Some random fish could show up with an overpair. Obviously hate life though and spike the last deuce.
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ilikeaces86
Old 02-09-2010, 02:23 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 call for the deuce or 7.
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 02-09-2010, 05:20 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 here's the stove of what i perceive their ranges to be.

---
11,844 games 0.015 secs 789,600 games/sec

Board: Js 9h 7d 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.108% 21.11% 00.00% 2500 0.00 { 2d2h }
Hand 1: 67.764% 66.13% 01.64% 7832 194.00 { JJ, 99, J9s, T8s }
Hand 2: 11.128% 09.49% 01.64% 1124 194.00 { AJs, KJs, J9s, T8s, AJo, KJo }


---

and honestly im not even sure he'd flat j9s pre or shove it fast on the turn so i think this is a fold unless someone disagrees with my range.
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Ravageur
Old 02-09-2010, 07:45 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I think hand 2's range is even narrower than what you gave them so this seems like clear fold. Puke though.
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pocketfours
Old 02-10-2010, 12:23 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 It's very close of course. I did stove myself before I posted and I put in QTcc in CO range which made this a call.
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sauce123
Old 02-10-2010, 11:56 PM #8 (permalink)  
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seems fine, i mean meh
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 02-11-2010, 02:53 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 SB could easily have a set as well....
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gabe
Old 02-11-2010, 03:57 AM #10 (permalink)  
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CO would play overpair like this? how else could he play one if he doesnt 3b pre
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Rupeni
Old 02-19-2010, 08:55 PM #11 (permalink)  
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so what were you up against? higher set?
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 02-20-2010, 05:53 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe View Post
CO would play overpair like this? how else could he play one if he doesnt 3b pre
The thing is he gave little thought on the flop or turn, i had serious doubts that it was an overpair but i could be overestimating.
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tstrout
Old 03-10-2010, 04:00 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Why would somebody have J9? There are opportunities to reraise on the flop, and it would've happened with top two pair. With that much money going in that early in the hand, stacks are committing before the turn. Maybe the 2nd caller is on the draw, but he doesn't have J9 because a raise would've happened on the flop. There is no reason to slow roll top two pair with the action in the hand. Probably an overpair (or a set) and a draw for your opponents, not top two pair.

That being said, I call this in a heartbeat. Sometimes you have to pay off, but there are a ton of hands you beat and to fold to a pot-sized all-in with a set and no possible flushes and only one funky straight possibility seems way too nitty. I think the nut straight or a set is going to milk it a bit, not shove. More likely AJ trying to protect after two weak checks on the turn and he needed a big bet to do so.

Also, you only entered the pot to try to hit a set and stack somebody. You hit your set and are worried that it's no good now? Maybe it isn't, but you can't fold it on that board. You only have to be right 1/3 of the time to break even with this call and you do have a set. There are many hands you beat and only a few that beat you.
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FTR Bad Beat
Old 07-29-2010, 08:44 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 Call. I think you are seeing overpair and two pair.
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ATOTHEC101
Old 08-02-2010, 07:38 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Meh, on the 1 hand I want to fold due to the strength of giblberlings play and the decent chance the fish when he calls the turn jam will either have 108 or some form of combo draw alot of the time in comparison to stuff we have crushed.

The only problem with folding being that I'm fairly sure gibberlings would play j9s the exact same way as this + he 3 bets alot so jj is somewhat negated.

I'd probably call but I think it's really close either way.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 08-04-2010, 04:45 AM #16 (permalink)  
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 results: this was a while ago so I don't remember exactly. The reg (gibberling) had either 99 or JJ, the fish had KJ or something lol.
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