H@££ makes a disgusting river call

prety loose call on the flop if you ask me

he had position, if he knows that guy usually gives up on turn then its fine

I highly doubt this is +EV.

Originally Posted by gabe

he had position, if he knows that guy usually gives up on turn then its fine

.... and when villain comes out firing on the turn?

Originally Posted by Lukie

Originally Posted by gabe

he had position, if he knows that guy usually gives up on turn then its fine

.... and when villain comes out firing on the turn?

Yeah. I don't mind the flop call if you have the intention of trying to take it away on the turn. The turn call sucks IMO though.

Noone thinks he could've put him on a flush draw? He knew villain probably didn't have a 7 given flop action and he picked up his own flush draw on the turn. It was a pretty big bet to call though. I guess this kinda stuff is what keeps him getting action w/ monsters.

Ok, I was bored so for some reason I decided to analyze this hand (i have no clue why), so here is what I came up with:

Assuming H@LL puts double on AcXc with no pair and is unaware he is dominated, he can assume that any non-club 3,4, or 6 will give him the best hand.

If H@LL folds on turn his remaining stack will be $2213.

If H@LL calls on the turn there are six situations that could occur based on the information available to him (Again this is assuming he does not put double on exactly A3 or A4.) Here is his chipstack after each of the scenarios (44 unknown cards in the deck after taking out Double's AXs):

A. 9/44 - A club hits, Double pushes, H@LL folds. Equity = $1413
B. 2/44 - The Ad or Ah hits, Double pushes 100% of the time, H@ll folds. Equity = $1413
C. 1/44 - The As hits, Double most likely pushes the Ace even tho the runner runner hits. Equity = $5144
D. 8/44 - A random spade hits, we'll assume double bluffs half of the time here and check/folds to H@LL's push the other half. Equity = (5144*.5)+(3733*.5) = $4438.50
E. 7/44 - An offsuit 3, 4 or 6 hits, most likely the same action as D. Equity = (5144*.5) + (3733*.5) = $4438.50
F. 27/44 - Any other card hits, we'll assume Double bluffs 50% of the time, 40% of the time folds to H@LL's push, and 10% makes an amazing call with A high. Equity = (1413*.5)+(3733*.4)+(0*.1) = $2199.70

Now if we use the odds of each scenario occuring we come up with H@LL's equity of calling the turn bet:

A. (9/44)*$1413 = $289.02
B. (2/44)*$1413 = $64.23
C. (1/44)*$5144 = $116.91
D. (8/44)*$4438.50 = $807.00
E. (7/44)*$4438.50 = $706.13
F. (27/44)*$2199.70 = $1349.82

Sum of Equities= $3333.11

To Recap -

Fold on Turn: Equity = $2213.00
Call on Turn: Equity = $3333.11

In the long run H@LL makes $1120.11 by calling that turn bet given the known information and the read.

Weee that was fun.

EDIT: Assuming H@LL's thinking was anywhere close to this his river call was standard and most likely planned.

I think tilt is the most likely explanation for this hand.

H@LL posted this on P5's about this hand:

basically by flat calling the turn overbet i was representing a hand strong enaugh that if he didnt make his nut draw he would check ide bet ide win.... if u disregard my cards in the hand and only follow the play imo i could easely be full already and i just underestimated his donkeynessness...

Flop- since the guy checked and saw a bet and then a call, he's tossing a 7, so H@LL had to put him on some kind of draw. On the turn villian represents the 7 when theres no way he could have one.

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

F. 27/44 - Any other card hits, we'll assume Double bluffs 50% of the time, 40% of the time folds to H@LL's push, and 10% makes an amazing call with A high. Equity = (1413*.5)+(3733*.4)+(0*.1) = $2199.70

Here cannot beat the board here if Double bluffs and has any card above a 4. Unless the river is a two, so how dooes he make 1413? Total here is 1493, I think.

F. (27/44)*$2199.70 = $1349.82

OK, this is now $916.

Fold on Turn: Equity = $2213.00
Call on Turn: Equity = $3333.11

And this is now, 2899, for a net of $750.

PLUS you need to discount for the rare times villain has A3/A4 PLUS you did not allow villians range to include 55-AA. Now, some of those hands he raises the flop SOME of the time... but knowing H@LL is loose, maybe he figures as long as he dodges a club/5/9 he's good.

His play here has little to do with chasing any kind of draw, although no doubt he developed a little more interest when he picked up a flush draw on the turn. Basically it looks to me like he's floating, with a guy betting into him who he thinks has a draw, a weak pair, or nothing. H@££ raised pre-flop and then someone starts betting into him aggressively... he's not putting him on a king or any other kind of good made hand, for certain. His intent through the flop and maybe the turn was probably to wait for the guy to slow down and then just steal from him by repping a monster; but as it went down, he paired the river and put the guy on a flush draw, so he called. It's a sick call on the end nonetheless - he has to be pretty sure on his read to make it.

The other guy's play is bad/over-aggro because he really doesn't seem to have any idea what he's betting into. River bluff seems to be along the lines of: "This pot is huge, I can't let it go now... and he keeps flat-calling, so maybe he's got nothing. Please god let him have nothing!"

Originally Posted by dalecooper

River bluff seems to be along the lines of: "This pot is huge, I can't let it go now... and he keeps flat-calling, so maybe he's got nothing. Please god let him have nothing!"

Oh my god he caught a pair of 4's and called! You Fish!!!!

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

A. 9/44 - A club hits, Double pushes, H@LL folds. Equity = $1413
B. 2/44 - The Ad or Ah hits, Double pushes 100% of the time, H@ll folds. Equity = $1413
C. 1/44 - The As hits, Double most likely pushes the Ace even tho the runner runner hits. Equity = $5144
D. 8/44 - A random spade hits, we'll assume double bluffs half of the time here and check/folds to H@LL's push the other half. Equity = (5144*.5)+(3733*.5) = $4438.50
E. 7/44 - An offsuit 3, 4 or 6 hits, most likely the same action as D. Equity = (5144*.5) + (3733*.5) = $4438.50
F. 27/44 - Any other card hits, we'll assume Double bluffs 50% of the time, 40% of the time folds to H@LL's push, and 10% makes an amazing call with A high. Equity = (1413*.5)+(3733*.4)+(0*.1) = $2199.70

Now if we use the odds of each scenario occuring we come up with H@LL's equity of calling the turn bet:

A. (9/44)*$1413 = $289.02
B. (2/44)*$1413 = $64.23
C. (1/44)*$5144 = $116.91
D. (8/44)*$4438.50 = $807.00
E. (7/44)*$4438.50 = $706.13
F. (27/44)*$2199.70 = $1349.82

Sum of Equities= $3333.11

Um, where are you getting any of these numbers? Somehow folding on the river nets him $1.5K? What?

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

A. 9/44 - A club hits, Double pushes, H@LL folds. Equity = $1413
B. 2/44 - The Ad or Ah hits, Double pushes 100% of the time, H@ll folds. Equity = $1413
C. 1/44 - The As hits, Double most likely pushes the Ace even tho the runner runner hits. Equity = $5144
D. 8/44 - A random spade hits, we'll assume double bluffs half of the time here and check/folds to H@LL's push the other half. Equity = (5144*.5)+(3733*.5) = $4438.50
E. 7/44 - An offsuit 3, 4 or 6 hits, most likely the same action as D. Equity = (5144*.5) + (3733*.5) = $4438.50
F. 27/44 - Any other card hits, we'll assume Double bluffs 50% of the time, 40% of the time folds to H@LL's push, and 10% makes an amazing call with A high. Equity = (1413*.5)+(3733*.4)+(0*.1) = $2199.70

Now if we use the odds of each scenario occuring we come up with H@LL's equity of calling the turn bet:

A. (9/44)*$1413 = $289.02
B. (2/44)*$1413 = $64.23
C. (1/44)*$5144 = $116.91
D. (8/44)*$4438.50 = $807.00
E. (7/44)*$4438.50 = $706.13
F. (27/44)*$2199.70 = $1349.82

Sum of Equities= $3333.11

Um, where are you getting any of these numbers? Somehow folding on the river nets him $1.5K? What?

Here is his chipstack after each of the scenarios

[/quote]

These guys need to find something better to do with there money. Because they clearly wont have it for long. This is who's a bigger maniac Poker?

Originally Posted by saywhat2

These guys need to find something better to do with there money. Because they clearly wont have it for long. This is who's a bigger maniac Poker?

lol i think H@££ will be alright

Originally Posted by saywhat2

These guys need to find something better to do with there money. Because they clearly wont have it for long. This is who's a bigger maniac Poker?

Why don't you go take their money then?..

Originally Posted by saywhat2

These guys need to find something better to do with there money. Because they clearly wont have it for long. This is who's a bigger maniac Poker?

more insights on the stars 10/20 game plz this is fascinating

This is what happens when you try to overprotect big pots, let this be a lesson. Pushing with A high is not a very good idea. He still had 12 outs to beat you on the river (if he thinks you're on the nut flush draw with no pair, and 15 if he thinks his 3 is live). Flat calling the flop means either you have a 7, or the nut flush draw. No one in their right mind would slowplay TPGK in this spot. I would say, next time raise $tinger on the flop from $160 to $320, and you probably take the pot down right there. If H@LL is any good at all, he knows you're not going to slowplay a pair with a flush draw on the board. The continuation bet on the turn is what killed you, he knew you'd make that play whether you had a 7 or the nut flush draw. Since if you did indeed have a suited ace that you're betting a draw to, obviously you had it on the flop, which means you would have clubs, which also means YOU CAN'T BE HOLDING a 7. Since unless you're a complete fish you're not going to call a PFR w/ A7o, even with a positional advantage.

You should have pushed on the turn, not the river. If you push and he calls with his 12 outs that he knows are probably good you're getting the best of it, if he calls and outdraws you, you were ahead when the money went in. If you'll call a standard PFR with K7, or K5, or 75s please start coming to some of my games. You could've been slow playing KK or calling the bet to set it or forget it with 55. If you had a fullhouse on the turn, you would've given him a free card to see if he improved. Betting here means "I'm not Full yet. Go away." IMHO, bad post flop play cost you this pot. All-in on the turn and you probably take it down, if not his 15 (prospective outs, he doesn't know you have his 3 covered) outs probably make this about 3.75-4:1 in your favor going to the river, he can catch a non-club 4,6 and 9 spades and in his mind probably 3 3s. He even has a one out redraw to the nuts. I think a non-all-in on the turn is an easy call for him at this point, because he knows if his read is right he's got a real good shot at dragging a monster pot. Also, I dislike your all-in bet on the river. Again, All-in is a "go away" bet. It screams "I missed my flush, PLEASE DON'T CALL ME". I would've said bet out like 1/2 the pot, it looks much more menacing than going all-in. Again, I think you played this hand very poorly. Not checking the turn behind him. If you did have a boat already you're HOPING he makes his flush on the river if he's on a draw now, which means you wouldn't charge him to see the river. Secondly, the only thing you're getting called by in this spot is someone that either has you beat, or has outs to beat you. His call on the flop is attrocious, but he picks up a monster draw on the turn. If he doesn't put you on 3-6 or 7x, and is pretty sure you don't have a King. This is an EASY call for him on the river.

Next time, bluff all-in on the turn, or check making it look like you're trapping him, and come over the top if he bets out on the river and the board doesn't double pair, and the other flush draw comes. All in all, you were much more likely here to have a hand he was drawing live to beat (even without his straight flush draw) and he had outs to chase. Would it have been any less fishy if he pushes the river and you CALLED with A high? If the answer is yes. Well then you're a total fish for bluffing all-in on the river too. I would've have checked it down at that point, he's not going to check-fold here, the pot is already a decent sized, a TON of hands have you crippled at this point, check it down and save yourself the checks.

I don't think the fold equity on the river here, judging by the flow of the hand, is substantial enough not to check it down. Again, your river bet screams "I can't beat you, don't call". And that was the mistake he capitalized on.

But then again, maybe he's just an idiot that got lucky. We'll never know.

Also, if you have a habit of betting your flush draws heavy when you miss on the turn, he might've picked up on that. Just a thought.

hahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahha

Originally Posted by ProfessorOfOuts

Next time, bluff all-in on the turn, or check making it look like you're trapping him, and come over the top if he bets out on the river and the board doesn't double pair, and the other flush draw comes. All in all, you were much more likely here to have a hand he was drawing live to beat (even without his straight flush draw) and he had outs to chase. Would it have been any less fishy if he pushes the river and you CALLED with A high? If the answer is yes. Well then you're a total fish for bluffing all-in on the river too. I would've have checked it down at that point, he's not going to check-fold here, the pot is already a decent sized, a TON of hands have you crippled at this point, check it down and save yourself the checks.

Nice, post but a couple of points:
1) I don't think original poster played this hand.
2) H@LL is a pretty famous guy
3) "Hero" (whomever that is) is kinda screwed once his turn bet is called. He has $1460 behind in a pot of $2300+.

I agree that the turn bet is what screwed him, but what is he supposed to do on the river, check/fold? check/call?

I am no high-stakes player but if I am Hero and I know what Holl is holding I play hand exact same way then gasp as he calls and remind myself : i am playing vs a super-human entity. I should leave the table or never play a pot vs him again. vnh.

I agree. Even on 10/20NL, theres enough tables to avoid this kind of player. I guess its an ego thing.

I agree that the turn bet is what screwed him, but what is he supposed to do on the river, check/fold? check/call?

check raise/check push? They might look like more favourable lines.

Originally Posted by PO$$E$$ED

prety loose call on the flop if you ask me

Bluff equity here has got to be high, if the right cards hit on the turn and/or river. Also, with two calls in front of him, he's not only getting 2:1 on his money, but also has position on the last two streets.