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ilikeaces86
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09-04-2006, 05:11 PM
Post subject: Folding AK to a single bet preflop standard?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
UTG ($366.29)
UTG+1 ($980)
UTG+2 ($856.50)
MP1 ($685)
MP2 ($536.50)
MP3 ($990)
CO ($999.75)
Button ($884.80)
Hero ($1923.75)
BB ($272.60)
Preflop: Hero is SB with A , K . Hero posts a blind of $5.
3 folds, MP1 raises to $45, 6 folds.
Final Pot: $60
Villain is a 12/2 over a ton of hands. Anyone like or dislike this?
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UG
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,855
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Against a 12/2, OOP, I don't see a problem with it. With a nit like that you pretty much know what he has here. If you pair your AK on the flop you still won't know if you're good or not, especially if you hit your K.
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ilikeaces86
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ultimate George
Against a 12/2, OOP, I don't see a problem with it. With a nit like that you pretty much know what he has here. If you pair your AK on the flop you still won't know if you're good or not, especially if you hit your K.
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Pretty much my exact reasoning.
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2_Thumbs_Up
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Sweden
Posts: 271
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The chances of him getting AA or KK when you have AK is ~0.5%. So he has you dominated around 1/4 times.
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Pingviini
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Bangkok
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standard
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"Poker is a simple math game" -Aba20
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ilikeaces86
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up
The chances of him getting AA or KK when you have AK is ~0.5%. So he has you dominated around 1/4 times.
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The probabilty is much much higher considering the fact he only raises %2 of the time making his range probably. AA KK AK QQ.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pingviini
standard
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*Cough* gutshot
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nutsinho
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Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
Quote:
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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up
The chances of him getting AA or KK when you have AK is ~0.5%. So he has you dominated around 1/4 times.
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The probabilty is much much higher considering the fact he only raises %2 of the time making his range probably. AA KK AK QQ. |
Right, two thumbs' math is wrong because villain is a 12/2 over a ton of hands...not over a ton of hands where ilikeaces has AK. Thus, the chances of him raising when ilikeaces holds AK is less than 2% and his range is still the same.
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up
The chances of him getting AA or KK when you have AK is ~0.5%. So he has you dominated around 1/4 times.
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i like those odds, all in!!
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
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Does your play change if you're on the button?
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LOL OPERATIONS
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ilikeaces86
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigred
Does your play change if you're on the button?
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Not against this opp.
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2_Thumbs_Up
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Sweden
Posts: 271
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up
So he has you dominated around 1/4 times.
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I talked about the probability of getting dealt AA/KK. So this guy will limp or fold 98% of the time, raise without AA/KK ~1.5% percent of the time and raise with AA/KK ~0.5% of the time. The odds of him having AA or KK here are about 3:1
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up
Quote:
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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up
So he has you dominated around 1/4 times.
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I talked about the probability of getting dealt AA/KK. So this guy will limp or fold 98% of the time, raise without AA/KK ~1.5% percent of the time and raise with AA/KK ~0.5% of the time. The odds of him having AA or KK here are about 3:1 |
What does he have the other times? Is it worth playing OOP?
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LOL OPERATIONS
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2_Thumbs_Up
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Sweden
Posts: 271
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Quote:
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Right, two thumbs' math is wrong because villain is a 12/2 over a ton of hands...not over a ton of hands where ilikeaces has AK. Thus, the chances of him raising when ilikeaces holds AK is less than 2% and his range is still the same.
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Didn't think of this though.. Damn.
A range of AA, KK and AK would be pretty close to 2%. If we add QQ it's around 2.5% but it's not sure he raises all hands everytime.
So if his range is AA, KK, QQ and AK, there are 3 ways each for him to get dealt AA or KK, 6 ways for QQ and 9 ways for AK. This changes the odds to 1:2.5
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Al4As
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 124
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12/2 at 5/10$ !? Wow.
Is it common ? Is it possible to set mine at these stakes and still make money in the long term ? Seems like this guy would be Mr. Transparent.
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ilikeaces86
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Al4As
12/2 at 5/10$ !? Wow.
Is it common ? Is it possible to set mine at these stakes and still make money in the long term ? Seems like this guy would be Mr. Transparent.
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Yes and Yes. People are dumb. I am 13/8 and beat the game at 3.5/100 long term nl1000 full ring. Also I am 16.8/11 at nl600 6max and am a longterm 5/100 winner.
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
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yeah, but you are king of the nits. We can't possibly emulate your godly, nitty ways.
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LOL OPERATIONS
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ilikeaces86
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigred
yeah, but you are king of the nits. We can't possibly emulate your godly, nitty ways.
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Well Obv.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigred
yeah, but you are king of the nits. We can't possibly emulate your godly, nitty ways.
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Well Obv. |
obviously you get dealt AAmore often than we common fish 
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AHiltz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Coldbrook, NS
Posts: 1,589
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigred
yeah, but you are king of the nits. We can't possibly emulate your godly, nitty ways.
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Well Obv. |
obviously you get dealt AAmore often than we common fish |
Flop sets get laid, I mean paid
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Bmxicle
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 947
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yeah this isn't standard, but in this case it is standard. do you see why?
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ilikeaces86
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bmxicle
yeah this isn't standard, but in this case it is standard. do you see why?
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Obviously I see why since I folded it.  On a side note hows it feel to be a tight little nit like me? O how the mighty have fallen.
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bmxicle
yeah this isn't standard, but in this case it is standard. do you see why?
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Obviously I see why since I folded it. On a side note hows it feel to be a tight little nit like me? O how the mighty have fallen. |
Says the guy with the negligible variance 6-max stats. You've been a nit for longer than you let on. 
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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Not Hijacking,
this same thing happened to me, This guy raises 2% of the time over 1200 hands.
Then he raised 19x the BB.
I folded then asked him 10x what was worth 19x the BB, but he never even said a word. I think I was a little on tilt after folding, trying to figure out what he had.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
UTG, plays super tight poker, I couldn't imagine playing for stacks with my drawing hand. I think I should have at least called, but I figured he had a small/med pair. maybe AK? anyways..... WWYD?
I obv folded.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)
MP3 ($10.30)
CO ($18.20)
Button ($2.95)
SB ($10.35)
BB ($21.95)
UTG ($9.40)
Hero ($9.80)
MP1 ($4.45)
MP2 ($9)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with  ,  .
UTG raises to $1.9, 8 folds.
Final Pot: $2.05
Results in white below:
No showdown. UTG wins $2.05. |
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3 3 3 I'm only half evil.
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ilikeaces86
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
Not Hijacking,
this same thing happened to me, This guy raises 2% of the time over 1200 hands.
Then he raised 19x the BB.
I folded then asked him 10x what was worth 19x the BB, but he never even said a word. I think I was a little on tilt after folding, trying to figure out what he had.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
UTG, plays super tight poker, I couldn't imagine playing for stacks with my drawing hand. I think I should have at least called, but I figured he had a small/med pair. maybe AK? anyways..... WWYD?
I obv folded.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)
MP3 ($10.30)
CO ($18.20)
Button ($2.95)
SB ($10.35)
BB ($21.95)
UTG ($9.40)
Hero ($9.80)
MP1 ($4.45)
MP2 ($9)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with , .
UTG raises to $1.9, 8 folds.
Final Pot: $2.05
Results in white below:
No showdown. UTG wins $2.05. |
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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er, um, this?
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...418&highlight=
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3 3 3 I'm only half evil.
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Al4As
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 124
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Not hijacking at all indeed.
Pretty interesting 10NL hand too.
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
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I'm so balla I got my own wheels. Don't need to hijack no damn plane.
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LOL OPERATIONS
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