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ilikeaces86
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02-25-2006, 08:11 AM
Post subject: 600NL Second Nutz on flop with 200bb
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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Hero is dealt KcJC and raises from CO to 20 button calls and its heads up to flop.
Flop
5c6c9c Hero bets 50 villain raises to 150 Hero raise to 450 Villain pushes for 1300 and barely has hero covered. Easiest call in the world right?
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PO$$E$$ED
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: SITTING ON 'RILLA'S FINGER
Posts: 263
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easy fold
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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you don't post reads much. also, how many people at the table?
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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Theres no way I fold anyway.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Easiest call in the world.
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Pingviini
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Bangkok
Posts: 1,090
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Gotta agree with gabe. Impossible to give a good answer here without knowing both of your images.
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"Poker is a simple math game" -Aba20
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ilikeaces86
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PO$$E$$ED
easy fold
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BRB BBQ?
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beez
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 76
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i think he makes this same move with a set or a lower flush, i can't see myself laying this down.
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PO$$E$$ED
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: SITTING ON 'RILLA'S FINGER
Posts: 263
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
Quote:
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Originally Posted by PO$$E$$ED
easy fold
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BRB BBQ? |
i wood've foded it preflop
kojack sux I'm always loosing big pots wit it
i like 69 of harts tho
i always play 69 of harts cuz it's my luky hand
u guys shood start calling 69 harts "the sex hand"
cuz thats wat I lik to call it
"the sex hand" get it lol 69 lol
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
Posts: 2,184
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PO$$E$$ED
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
Quote:
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Originally Posted by PO$$E$$ED
easy fold
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BRB BBQ? |
i wood've foded it preflop
kojack sux I'm always loosing big pots wit it
i like 69 of harts tho
i always play 69 of harts cuz it's my luky hand
u guys shood start calling 69 harts "the sex hand"
cuz thats wat I lik to call it
"the sex hand" get it lol 69 lol |
You know what's more fun? Walking into traffic with a blindfold. you should try it, gangsta.
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LOL OPERATIONS
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ProZachNation
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Over there!
Posts: 801
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I think he makes this move with lower flush, Ac, or a set.
I would call
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
I didn't think its Bold to bang some chick with my bro. but i guess so... thats +EV in my book.
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bluey
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 347
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ProZachNation
I think he makes this move with lower flush, Ac, or a set.
I would call
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hahahahah
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BR: $.1k
Goal 2: July 1 $10k
IIbeatsUU: lol u raised with that?
you mini raised, therefore you desereve whatever you get....
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
Posts: 2,184
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bluey
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ProZachNation
I think he makes this move with lower flush, Ac, or a set.
I would call
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hahahahah |
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LOL OPERATIONS
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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How frequently do typical players play the nut flush like this? Almost never. How often do they play sets and smaller flushes like this? Almost always. Easiest call ever.
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PO$$E$$ED
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: SITTING ON 'RILLA'S FINGER
Posts: 263
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ilikeaces this joke wasn't very funny
I know u can do better than this
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ilikeaces86
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PO$$E$$ED
ilikeaces this joke wasn't very funny
I know u can do better than this
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So this guy walks into a bar and is like BRB BBQ....
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bluey
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ProZachNation
I think he makes this move with lower flush, Ac, or a set.
I would call
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hahahahah |
haha
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Muxy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Canadian LOLUH'S AND AMERICAN LOLUHS
Posts: 1,529
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
Quote:
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Originally Posted by PO$$E$$ED
ilikeaces this joke wasn't very funny
I know u can do better than this
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So this guy walks into a bar and is like BRB BBQ.... |
ahhahahah
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KY_Ace
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
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I don't think somone'd be that reckless with a set HU but i'd say he's gonna flip over a smaller flush at least half the time. However 1300 is a HUGE amount to lose in one hand of 600 NL without the nuts, especially since the pot is only 50 on the flop. This is almost identical to the "would you ever fold KK pre-flop?" scenario. If I had a read on the guy as a tight player and the raises come without hesitation, I might consider folding. A really fast reraise might worry me, if you had a Q high flush and someone raised it to 450 you'd have to think a little bit before raising it to 1300 AI. I'd still call 90% of the time, especially if I'm multi-tabling with no reads but it wouldn't be an "easy call".
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Call and its not the second nutz, did you forget about 7c8c?
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WildBobAA
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: lol i dunno
Posts: 1,811
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Definatly not an easy call. His line is screaming nothing but strength. Would expect to see :Ac: :Qc: here or at the very least :Ac: :Tc:. However, I'm definatly not good enough to fold this. I call and pray he has a lower flush.
A read helps so much here Would he call a raise suited connectors like :Qc: :Tc I mean that's the only other feasable hand like this he'd be calling with. He can't have 9T clubs or 98 clubs. 87 of clubs maybe but that's about it. And personally, I would have no problem opening a pot with suited trash like this but I wouldn't be calling raises with it unless it's a big multiway pot. The more I think about this, the more I think he's got :Ac: :Qc:.
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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He could also have
 
 
:Tc: :Td:
:Qc: :Qd:
:Ac: :Ad:
Or no clubs with an overpair, or set. I think that QQ might have re-raised PF, but AA doesn't always (and cries when this flops)
A smaller flush seems really, really unlikely here.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,334
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Yeah, I think you need to be deeper with more information on your opponent to even think about a laydown here.
I started doing the math in terms of # of cominations Aces is ahead vs behind. But the bitch of this is that if he's beat, he's drawing dead. However, is opponent is probably drawing very live if he's behind and went this deep with his hand. Hence, it wouldn't surprise me for a fold to be correct if we were 300bb deep.
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
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50% nut flush or A-flush, 10% lower flush, 20% set, 20% flushdraw.
Chance of winning: 50%*0+10%*100+20%*70+20%*70=38%.
850/2600=33%.
1450/3800=38%..
You need to have an (impossible) good read to fold this.
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WildBobAA
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: lol i dunno
Posts: 1,811
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
He could also have
:Tc: :Td:
:Qc: :Qd:
:Ac: :Ad:
Or no clubs with an overpair, or set. I think that QQ might have re-raised PF, but AA doesn't always (and cries when this flops)
A smaller flush seems really, really unlikely here. |
No way he puts in the 4th raise with 7s, 8s, or Ts. aces bet, he checkraised, aces raised again, basically telling him he had a made set/straight/flush (and he wants to play for stacks) and he pushed, putting in the 4th bet. A good player would be able to get away from QQ or AA here even if they have the club. I could maybe see him overplaying AA with the :Ac: but he's folding QQ. He's folding an overpair with no club and he's most likely folding the straight for fear that he's drawing dead. I mean, it's possible he has the straight but he'd be have to be a pretty big donkey to go broke with this after aces told him that they are playing for stacks. He has a set or a flush.
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Aquinas
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 319
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I call this every day. Every night. Always. I've played my share of 600 -1k nl on party and pacific, and am a nice consistant looser in the games (down about 10k from them -ouch!-luckily I still pwn the multis ) so u can trust me.
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Scuba Chuck
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,101
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Besides a read on your opponent, it would be very helpful for us to get an assumption of his read on you. I think the more loose he thinks you are, the more his hand range really opens up, even against a tighty. Furthermore, do you have a history of calling off your stack against the nuts with this guy?
BTW, I certainly doubt our villain has the 8c7c here. The only way I think otherwise, is if our villain has some incredible read on our hero.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
He could also have
:Tc: :Td:
:Qc: :Qd:
:Ac: :Ad:
Or no clubs with an overpair, or set. I think that QQ might have re-raised PF, but AA doesn't always (and cries when this flops)
A smaller flush seems really, really unlikely here. |
I really think you need to add 87s to your hand range above.
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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Quote:
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I really think you need to add 87s to your hand range above.
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I assume you mean "not clubs"... or actually... Pushing here is not totally insane with
But I would think he would have to have at least 1 club. Otherwise he is re-raising all in praying you don't have a club. Oh, but he wouldn't call 87o pre-flop would he?
So you do mean 87s non-clubs.... that's seems pretty bold. Does adding this with equal probability shift from fold to call? It's a call, anyway right?
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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I don't really get why there is discussion over this hand. If you don't instantly call this, you should probably consider quitting poker.
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PO$$E$$ED
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: SITTING ON 'RILLA'S FINGER
Posts: 263
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
I don't really get why there is discussion over this hand. If you don't instantly call this, you should probably consider quitting poker.
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this thread belongs in tales of poker
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