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510 bvb turned 4 straight

  
 
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aka_red
Old 12-16-2010, 03:01 AM     Post subject: 510 bvb turned 4 straight #1 (permalink)  
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v is 28/21 9% 3b. 33% raise cbet (6). Only recent history (arguably irrelevant) is he stacked me earlier when he c/r KK as pfr from utg (fr)on 677cc and I 4b/c AQcc.

I was thinking that calling gives him the opportunity to continue bluffing. But, that allows him to play perfectly on the river in terms of bluffing frequencies. As I don't have many reads on his tendencies I'm unsure what the optimal line is here.

Stacks:
UTG LeRhaqs ($2,340)
UTG+1 gregy20723 ($1,000)
CO cadillac0001 ($280)
BTN fantasticcow ($1,759)
SB Hero ($1,977)
BB Altrum Altus ($1,000)

Pre-Flop: ($15, 6 players) Hero is SB
LeRhaqs folds, gregy20723 folds, cadillac0001 folds, fantasticcow folds, Hero raises to $30, Altrum Altus calls $20

Flop: ($60, 2 players)
Hero bets $40, Altrum Altus raises to $127, Hero calls $87

Turn: ($314, 2 players)
Hero checks, Altrum Altus bets $218, Hero ?
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Genitruc
Old 12-16-2010, 04:18 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 call turn check-call any non-diamond river seems about right, if somewhat transparent. maybe check-call and calling any river is better.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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pocketfours
Old 12-16-2010, 07:32 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 Flop call seems thin. As played I'm def jamming turn.
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griffey24
Old 12-16-2010, 11:02 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 I'm kind of torn on this. I think jamming turn gets us owned by QJ and Jxdd a fair bit.

At the same time, if he has a hand like JT or J9 or something, we are free-rolling him.

I guess this would depend on whether we expect villain to bet diamonds here, and whether he will b/c them here.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 12-16-2010, 06:12 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 Absolutely call.

I think I'd just fold flop as well but its close.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 12-16-2010, 06:28 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 I'd fold the flop

And honestly I think there's merit in folding the turn.
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Alexos
Old 12-16-2010, 07:54 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld View Post
I'd fold the flop

And honestly I think there's merit in folding the turn.
wat?
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Alexos
Old 12-16-2010, 07:56 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 I think flop call is okay, I mean he has quite a bit of air in his range. Turn I'd just flat again and I don't think it's close --> he has alot of air in his range..
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pocketfours
Old 12-16-2010, 11:33 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 I very much doubt that villain would bluff river after we c/c this turn.
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pocketfours
Old 12-23-2010, 12:16 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 Bump. I'd really like to hear why people prefer calling over jamming turn, because I think it's a mistake. Not saying you guys play bad just want to know why we think differently about this spot.

If you guys are folding a lot of rivers you should def fold the turn like Max suggested.
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Alexos
Old 12-23-2010, 01:22 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 I have no idea whats going on. Why on earth would we fold turn, and why on earth would we fold ANY river vs this guy?
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pocketfours
Old 12-23-2010, 01:39 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexos View Post
I have no idea whats going on. Why on earth would we fold turn, and why on earth would we fold ANY river vs this guy?
That's pretty much what I'm asking. I would only fold Jd river myself.

But if we aren't folding rivers, then I feel like charging/protecting against draws is going to be much better because I really don't feel like villain is going to expect a river bluff to show profit when such a big part of our range is Jx.

Protecting against diamonds is going to be huge here when you consider RIO. There's no reason to worry about QJ when we're stacking off against it anyway.
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Alexos
Old 12-23-2010, 01:52 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 But why do we want to protect vs something that has 20% vs our hand when he has bluffs also in his range. How do we only have Jx when we do have 2pairs, 6x sometimes as well? His raise cbet is 66%, this is a guy that is used to play higher stakes as well and is clearly capable of bluffing turn and river here with QK, especially if he's thinking "zomg flush draws, he would raise Jx here b/c he doesn't understand I have so much air here and won't let me bluff, so ill fire river ldo"
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pocketfours
Old 12-23-2010, 02:23 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 I didn't say we have only Jx but this doesn't look like a spot where a river shove is going to show profit. I'm very tight from the SB vs a guy like this so I almost never have a 6 or two pair.

Let's consider for a moment that villain has diamonds and we raise his bet. We should raise at least enough to make him indifferent to calling.

His odds (with IO) as a function of our raise size = x/(1000-218-127-30+1000)

P(diamond) = 9/44

x/(1000-218-127-30+1000) = 9/44

x = 9 * 1625 / 44 = $332

So we should raise to at least $550 ($218 + $332) to make him indifferent to calling with a flushdraw. Are we really going to hand him this $332 on a plate because we think he is going to bluff the river with KQ?

Just seems to me like we're hoping for some crazy blind battle spew which certainly doesn't look like a solid play.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 12-23-2010, 04:03 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 The reason I'm suggesting fold turn is tied into the fold flop suggestion. I think he is rarely bluffing this flop, which means that if he raises the flop and bets the turn his range is a hand with a Jack, a Straight with a FD, or QJ. Against all these hands you will have to call a big bet on the river, and this will be for a split. On a very rare occassion he may be bluffing something like KQdd, Q7dd. Since you're basically calling 850 to win about 160 I don't think you have the correct odds to call.
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nutsinho
Old 12-31-2010, 08:33 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 flop is easy muck, turn i like allin best. lol fold hes betting 100% of his range which contains many semibluffs and its only 100bb eff
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Alexos
Old 01-01-2011, 04:26 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 why allin? Do we expect him to shutdown on rivers with his bluffs?
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nutsinho
Old 01-03-2011, 10:13 PM #18 (permalink)  
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 yea def..we didnt 3bet the flop and we called the turn. and we prob dont have a 6...
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